分析：南非的“基础四国”梦 Zuma's Basic instinct sees him wooing China

“金砖四国”(Bric)还是“基础四国”(Basic)？有好几年，哪怕只是提一下“金砖四国”这个词，都会让南非的官员们恨得咬牙切齿。

南非倒不敢宣称自己高度依赖大宗商品的瘸腿经济敌得过金砖四国中的任何一个——无论是规模、潜力，还是活力方面。但在废除了种族隔离制度后，作为撒哈拉以南非洲地区的经济龙头，南非一直渴望走上全球舞台。而那么多经济学家痴迷于四大新兴经济体，一直令南非感到失落。

但现在，南非敢于再次寻梦，该国曾经备受争议的领导人雅各布•祖马(Jacob Zuma)亦是如此——就任总统9个月的他，可能刚刚为自己找到了一个引人瞩目的地缘政治主题。

对于去年12月哥本哈根气候变化大会那颇具戏剧性的最后一夜，人们已经谈论得够多了——巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)前去拜会中国代表团，不料却发现中国、巴西、印度和南非领导人正在开会。

尽管外交官们仍在猜测，究竟是美国总统还是其他什么人擅自闯入了这场中国派对，但在非洲，人们铭记这一场景的原因却截然不同：祖马出人意料地与印度总理曼莫汉•辛格(Manmohan Singh)、温家宝和巴西总统路易斯•伊纳西奥•卢拉•达席尔瓦(Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva)等知名度更高的全球政治家并肩而坐。

非洲外交官们乐意认为，这标志着一个新国际集团的形成，终于有一个非洲国家坐在了上座。这个新团体——“基础四国”集团：巴西、南非、印度和中国——上周末在新德里举行了首次会晤。

祖马的一位密友坚称，这四个国家在哥本哈根会议临近尾声时聚到一起实属天意。据称，由于挡风玻璃被冰覆盖，祖马乘坐的飞机只能推迟起飞，他才得以重返气候变化会谈。

不管怎样说，这让被排除在外的欧洲官员们感到震惊。在峰会初期，他们本以为祖马会认同欧盟国家的观点，即强烈要求各污染大国做出有力的承诺。可情况恰恰相反，他们发现祖马坚定地与中国站到了一起。

无疑，素来和蔼可亲的祖马会设法抹去任何外交上的长时间不满。毕竟，数周前，就是这个人在前卫生部长曼托•查巴拉拉－姆西曼(Manto Tshabalala-Msimang)那高度紧张的葬礼上突然放声歌唱，让所有人顿时放下心来。

尽管他以八面玲珑著称（实际上有那么一点祖鲁“万金油”的味道），但人们越来越感觉到，在国际事务方面他比许多人预想得果决得多。特别是他似乎已打定主意，将其前任塔博•姆贝基(Thabo Mbeki)与北京方面更为小心谨慎的交往向前推进。姆贝基希望促进“南南合作”，但他的动机中除了与中国建立密切合作关系的渴望，似乎还有寻求以此挟制西方的成分。实际上，他曾警告称，中国应谨防与非洲结成一种“殖民关系”。

尽管祖马在国内推迟了几项重大决定，但他对中国似乎并不抱有此类顾虑。他在去年4月就职后不久，就通过一项决议，拒绝给达赖喇嘛(Dalai Lama)发放签证。随着美国经济正统地位的声誉严重受损，他对中国经济成就的关注愈发密切。祖马的一位顾问表示：“当前的要点是国家资本主义的崛起。我们无法任由市场自生自灭。”

摆在西方人面前的主要问题是，南非是否会寻求在“基础四国”中扮演一种桥梁角色，敦促中国签署具有法律约束力的减排目标。毕竟，南非传统上与英美较为亲善。

南非官员们坚决表示，两方面关系都不会以牺牲另一方为代价。但中国去年一跃成为南非第一大贸易伙伴国，从中也可以看出一些苗头。

所有这些背景信息都表明，南非将尽最大努力，以确保“基础四国”得到外交方面的关注，尽管“金砖四国”让经济学家个个心醉神迷。

让我们准备好，聆听更多挡风玻璃结冰和西方官员失望的故事吧！

译者/陈云飞

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031071

Brics or Basic? For many a year mere mention of the term Bric has been guaranteed to set South African officials' teeth grinding.

It is not that South Africa can claim its stuttering commodity- dependent economy can rival any of the Brics', in scale, potential or sparkle. But as the economic powerhouse of sub-Saharan Africa, since the end of apartheid South Africa has long dreamt of being a global player – and been frustrated by the fascination of so many economists with the big four emerging economies.

Now, however, South Africa is daring to dream again, as is Jacob Zuma, its sometime controversial leader, who just may have found a compelling geopolitical theme for his nine-month-old presidency.

Much has been made of the dramatic final evening at December's climate change conference in Copenhagen when Barack Obama paid a call on the Chinese delegation, only to find that a meeting was already under way between Chinese, Brazilian, Indian and South African leaders.

But while diplomats still speculate as to whether it was the US president or the others who were gate-crashing at a Chinese party, in Africa the scene is remembered for very different reasons: the surprising presence of Mr Zuma alongside the more established global statesmen, Manmohan Singh, Wen Jiabao and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

This, African diplomats like to think, was the moment a new international grouping was formed, one that at long last entrenched an African presence at the top table, and held its first meeting, in New Delhi, at the weekend: the Basic group, Brazil, South Africa, India and China.

One of Mr Zuma's confidants maintains there was an element of divine providence to the closing Copenhagen ensemble. Supposedly Mr Zuma's aircraft had to delay its departure because of an iced-over windshield, enabling him to return to the talks for the climax.

Whatever, the excluded European officials were startled. Earlier in the summit they believed Mr Zuma was amenable to the perspective of the EU nations who were pushing for hard commitments from all big polluters. Instead they found he was firmly with China.

The ever-affable Mr Zuma will no doubt manage to brush off any lasting diplomatic pique. This, after all, is a man who just a few weeks ago burst into song to put everyone at their ease at the hugely sensitive funeral for Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, the former health minister.

But notwithstanding his reputation as a man who is all things to all people – indeed something of a Zulu Mr Everyman – there is a growing sense that in international affairs he may be more decisive than many anticipated. In particular, it appears he has decided to intensify his predecessor Thabo Mbeki's more cautious engagement with Beijing. While Mr Mbeki liked to encourage a “South-South” axis, his drive appeared as much to do with fashioning a lever against the west as a desire for close co-operation with Beijing. Indeed he once cautioned that China should beware of fashioning a “colonial relationship” with Africa.

While he has put off several key decisions at home, Mr Zuma appears to have no such misgivings over China. Shortly before taking office last April he waved through a decision to deny a visa to the Dalai Lama. With the reputation of Washington's economic orthodoxy in disarray, he is paying ever-closer attention to Beijing's economic record. “The story of the moment is the rise of state capitalism,” says one adviser. “We can't leave the market to operate on its own.”

The main question for the west is whether South Africa will seek a bridging role in “Basic”, and will urge China to sign up to binding emissions targets. It does after all have traditionally close ties to Britain and the US.

Officials stoutly insist neither relationship comes at the expense of the other. But China's emergence last year as South Africa's largest trade partner is a straw in the wind.

All the mood music suggests that South Africa will do its damnedest to make sure that, for all the swooning of economists over the Brics, in diplomacy Basic is the grouping to watch.

Prepare for more tales of frozen windshields – and disappointed western officials.

Alec Russell is world news editor

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031071/en