谷歌(Google)威胁撤出中国，铁矿石价格谈判，美国对台军售，这三者之间有什么共同之处？它们都是逼中国亮出底牌的范例。
谷歌突然宣布考虑撤出中国，告别了资本主义世界最具理想主义精神的公司之一向威权压力低头的4个年头。作为获准进入中国的代价，谷歌违背了自己的信念，同意对搜索结果进行审查。该决定给这家硅谷公司造成了极大的苦恼，在拥护者心中的声誉直线下降——拥护者们已将其信息获取不受约束的理念铭记在心。
连无所不能的谷歌都向北京的要求屈服，中国政府必然以为这证明了，他们能够将让几乎所有人都就范。其中的暗含之意是，如果你想在中国做生意，就必须按我们的条件来。随着世界经济权力明显向中国转移，随着众多公司蜂拥而至，吸引数千万新近富裕起来的中国消费者，北京方面肯定已愈加相信，自己能够制定国际交往的准则。
如今谷歌反抗了。直接导火索是一波针对Gmail帐户的协同网络攻击。在对近期安全系统遭到入侵进行的调查中，这家美国公司表示发现，几十位中国人权活动人士的帐户经由“网络钓鱼”和其它网络陷阱被定期侵入。
在一份表示自己将“重新评估在中国商业运营的可行性”的声明中，谷歌还提到“过去一年里试图进一步限制网络言论自由的行为”。这些措辞表明，随着中国政府对互联网的管制更加有效、也更加激进，谷歌已日渐不再抱有幻想。过去的一年充斥着若干敏感事件的纪念日，YouTube、Facebook和Twitter等众多网站被彻底屏蔽。2006年1月谷歌创办Google.cn网站时承认的最初的“不适感”已经变得不可容忍。谷歌的决定是否完全出于道德考虑并不清楚。说它是以道德义愤掩盖受商业驱动的撤退，也说得通。无论是什么原因，谷歌已经要求中国政府亮出底牌。
类似事件在网络空间之外也有发生——在竞争激烈的铁矿石领域。巴西淡水河谷(Vale of Brazil)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)最近与日本客户开始了制定铁矿石基准价格的谈判。几家公司的高管表示，最终价格将以“要么接受、要么放弃”的态度提交给中国政府。鉴于以宝钢(Baosteel)为首的中国客户占据了铁矿石海运市场半数以上的份额，这种怠慢之举就显得更不寻常了。
但中国看上去坚不可摧的立场正是其失败的根源。大型铁矿石生产商被去年谈判中它们所认为的高压策略激怒了。中国政府拒绝在铁矿石价格上做出让步，还以窃取商业机密的罪名拘留了力拓铁矿石业务中国区高管胡士泰(Stern Hu)和他的三名同事。和谷歌一样，这些矿商们已经受够了。它们已经把业务搬到了其它地方——至少是关键的定价业务。中国钢铁制造商最终可能因此付出更高的代价。
第三个逼中国政府摊牌的事件发生在上周，即美国国防部继续推进对自治的台湾岛销售武器。在军售前，中国已经加重了语气。中方中断了两国的军事交流。本周，中国政府又在毫无预告的情况下成功试验了一种先进的反导拦截系统，借此展示其军事威力。时机似乎经过精心计算，为的就是表现北京方面的不满。但美国很可能会不予理睬，继续其对台军售。中国政府可能又一次高估了自己的优势。
去年对中国而言是个好年头。与自尊受到伤害的西方对手相比，中国的银行显得更健康，消费者更有信心，经济也更有弹性。美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)首次访华时的身体语言，证明了一个已经显而易见的事实：各类事件一直在向有利于中国的方向倾斜。但中国政府已经被这些胜利冲昏了头脑。正如在哥本哈根所发现的那样，事情并不是总能遂中国所愿——中国政府为减排索要资金的要求遭到华盛顿婉言拒绝。北京方面越来越难以理清其双重身份之间的关系：一个需要援助的发展中国家，以及一个渴望获得尊重的新兴强国。
中国有百度(Baidu)这个土生土长的搜索引擎。如果迫不得已，没了谷歌它也照样能活。但还有其它一些领域，中国必须小心不要做得太过火。其中最突出的就是汇率问题。实际上已重新盯住美元的人民币跟随美元一同走软，使中国的出口极具竞争力。去年12月，发货量同比激增18%。迄今为止中国都逃过了惩罚，美国国会议员不过是口出怨言，对贸易实施了一些象征性的制裁，最显著的是对中国轮胎征收额外关税。但谷歌提醒了我们，每个人都有忍耐的极限，尤其是在美国的大选之年。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001030818
What do Google's threat to pull out of China, iron ore pricing negotiations and US sales of arms to Taiwan have in common? They are all examples of calling China's bluff.
Google's sudden announcement that it is contemplating a withdrawal from China draws a line under four years when one of capitalism's most idealistic companies bowed to authoritarian pressure. As a price for gaining entry to China, Google swallowed its convictions and agreed to censor its search results. The decision caused much handwringing at the Silicon Valley company, which lost kudos among devotees who had taken to heart its philosophy of unbridled access to information.
When even the mighty Google caved in to Beijing's demands, Chinese authorities must have taken it as evidence that they could bring almost anyone to heel. If you want to do business in China, the implicit message went, you will do it on our terms. As economic power has visibly shifted to China and as companies flock to tap its tens of millions of newly affluent consumers, Beijing must have grown ever more confident that it could dictate the rules of engagement.
Now Google has rebelled. The immediate trigger was a spate of co-ordinated cyber-raids on Gmail accounts. As part of its investigation into the recent security breach, the US company said it discovered that the accounts of dozens of advocates of Chinese human rights had been routinely accessed through phishing scams and other online trickery.
In a statement in which it said it would “review the feasibility of our business in China”, Google alluded to “attempts over the past year to further limit free speech on the web”. The words suggest it has grown more disillusioned as Beijing has become more effective – and aggressive – at policing the internet. Over the past year, one dotted with sensitive anniversaries, a number of entire services including YouTube, Facebook and Twitter were blacked out. The initial “discomfort” Google admitted to when it started Google.cn in January 2006 has become intolerable. Whether Google's decision is entirely ethically driven is unclear. It is feasible it is using moral outrage as cover for a commercially driven retreat. Whatever the reason, Google has called Beijing's bluff.
Something similar has happened outside the realm of cyberspace, in the down-and-dirty world of iron ore. Vale of Brazil, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton recently began talking to Japanese customers about setting a benchmark price for the metal. That price will be presented to Beijing on a “take it or leave it” basis, executives said. The snub to China is all the more extraordinary given that Chinese customers, led by Baosteel, account for more than half the seaborne market.
But China's seemingly unassailable position has been its undoing. Big iron ore producers have bristled at what they regard as heavy-handed tactics in last year's price negotiations. A refusal by Beijing to budge on price was compounded by the detention of Stern Hu, Rio Tinto's iron ore executive in China, along with three colleagues on charges of obtaining commercial secrets. Like Google, the miners have had enough. They have taken their business – at least their crucial price-setting business – elsewhere. Chinese steelmakers could end up paying more as a result.
The third example of calling China's bluff came last week when the US defence department went ahead with arms sales to the self-ruled island of Taiwan. China had ratcheted up its rhetoric ahead of the sale. It had already cancelled military-to-military ties. This week, Beijing showed off its military prowess by successfully testing – without warning – an advanced missile interception system. The timing seemed calculated to show Beijing's displeasure. But the odds are the US will press on with arms sales to Taiwan regardless. Once again, Beijing may have overplayed its hand.
Last year was a good one for China. Its banks showed themselves to be healthier, its consumers more confident and its economy far more resilient than its humbled western rivals. Barack Obama's body language on his first presidential visit to China demonstrated what had already become obvious: events have been tilting in China's favour. But all the success may have gone to Beijing's head. As it found in Copenhagen, where its demands to be paid in return for cutting carbon emissions were roundly rejected by Washington, things do not always go its way. It is becoming ever harder for Beijing to parse its twin status as a developing nation that needs assistance and an emerging superpower that demands respect.
China has Baidu, a home-grown search engine. If push comes to shove, it could live without Google. But there are other areas where China should be careful not to push too far. The most obvious is currency. The renminbi, which has been effectively repegged to the dollar, has ridden the greenback down, making Chinese exports ultra-competitive. In December, shipments shot up 18 per cent against the previous year. So far China has got away with mere grumbling from US congressmen and a few symbolic clampdowns on trade, notably an additional tariff on Chinese tyres. But Google is a reminder that everyone has their snapping point, especially in a US election year.
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