2010年1月7日

金融危机最大赢家:中国 The Winners From the Year That Was

:这个国家或许是本次金融危机的最大赢家。就在美国和欧洲的经济先后熄火之际,中国经济却一路高歌走过了这场“大萧条”。预计中国2010年的经济增长率将达到9%。现在这个国家正在将手里的资金派上用场。从沃尔沃(Volvo)到悍马(Hummer),再到上周正式提出收购的Corriente Resources,中国企业正在世界各地抢购着业务和资产。《纽约时报》(NY Times)在一篇有关阿富汗一座铜矿的文章中写道:就在美国花费数千亿美元在阿富汗与塔利班和基地组织作战之际,中国却在那里为自己迅速扩张的经济获取着原材料。这个世界的超级大国致力于安全问题。它实力增长最快的竞争对手则专注于商业。

詹姆士•戴蒙(James Dimon):在过去两年中,这位摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)的首席执行长一直被称作“美国最重要的银行家”、“政府的首选银行家”以及“华尔街硕果仅存的英雄”。他被《美国银行家》杂志(American Banker)提名为“年度银行家”,有了自己的传记,连一向吝于表扬金融业的奥巴马总统也说他干得不错。到2009年末时,戴蒙已率领摩根大通安然渡过了这场金融危机,他的个人声誉在危机中不仅毫发未损,而且还更加闪亮了。事实上,他现在经常被传会成为下一任美国财政部长的人选。

沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett):这位“奥马哈先知”在金融危机期间所做的交易和拒绝做的交易,都同样彰显出他从这场危机中获益的能力。随着各金融机构的坏帐冲销额急剧增高,它们纷纷来向巴菲特乞求援救。巴菲特对每个来向他示好的人都说“谢谢,我不感兴趣”,除了高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)。此话怎讲?你看,巴菲特购买了价值50亿美元的高盛优先股,息票利率为10%,他还获得了以每股115美元的价格购买50亿美元高盛普通股的期权。高盛目前的股价约为166美元。作为他去年的年终大戏,巴菲特实施了平生规模最大的一次收购,斥资260亿美元买下了铁路公司Burlington Northern。

高盛:在2009年,高盛是谁都想恨上一把的华尔街公司。它被称做“披着仁慈面孔的巨大吸血乌贼”。由于在刚刚接受纳税人几十亿美元救助款几个月就拿出数十亿美元准备发奖金,它成了反映华尔街薪酬制度种种缺陷的最佳例证。尽管这给高盛的形像造成了损害,但该公司依然因两个原因而成为赢家:1)此次金融危机为它消除了一些竞争对手;2)高盛那几十亿美元利润/薪酬肯定会提振公司的士气。

阿兰•穆拉利(Alan Mulally):福特汽车公司(Ford Motor)的这位首席执行长因带领该公司平安渡过了这场金融危机而应获殊荣。此次严重的经济衰退重创了美国汽车业。汽车销售量降至几乎30年未见的低点。与竞争对手通用汽车(General Motors)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)不同,福特汽车没有拿政府的钱,它也没有申请破产保护。就在其竞争对手仍然被束缚在政府身边之际,福特却在趁机攫取市场份额。到去年第二季度,该公司已实现扭亏为盈。去年第三季度,福特汽车盈利近10亿美元。

埃文•威廉姆斯(Evan Williams)和比兹•斯通(Biz Stone):这两位Twitter的创始人一直有大量机会将这项业务出售。谷歌(Google)等企业都已表示了收购兴趣。但这对搭档却坚持不肯出售Twitter。现在看来这一决定相当明智。在2009年,从体坛人物到明星大腕,似乎谁都在使用Twitter的微博服务。Twitter的用户数量在一年内从400万飙升到6,000万。除此之外,Twitter还新获得了一笔1亿美元的注资。这使Twitter的价值超过了10亿美元,比其去年2月上一轮筹资时的估值高了两倍。现在他们能够拿得出来匹配这一估值的可能只是一个盈利模式。

罗伯特•本默切(Robert Benmosche):身为美国国际集团(AIG)首席执行长的他虽然十之八九不是第一个被形容为傲慢、言过其实的企业领导人,但他正在为自己的员工和AIG这家纽约的保险公司拼争。而他可能正是那个能从AIG获得某种回报的人。对美国纳税人来说,这或许是个好消息。我们不要忘记,他对美国政府说,如果政府想用他,就需要给他钱。看看本默切总计1,050万美元的薪酬,就能猜到政府怎么做了。

詹姆士•戈尔曼(James Gorman)和布赖恩•莫伊尼汉(Brian Moynihan):这两人在金融界的职位更上一层楼。戈尔曼被任命为麦晋桁(John Mack)在摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的接班人,而莫伊尼汉则接掌了美国银行(Bank of America)。两人都有很多工作要做。摩根士丹利和美国银行都受到了本次金融危机的冲击。重建外界对其的信心对这两家机构来说都是至关重要的事情。

Stephen Grocer

(“并购看台”实时报导影响华尔街格局的交易和交易撮合人,包括并购、融资、私人资本运营和破产。)


China: The country is perhaps the biggest winner of the financial crisis. While the economies of the U.S. and Europe sputtered, China's economy roared through the Great Recession. It is expected to expand 9% in 2010. Now the nation is putting its cash to work. From Volvo to Hummer to this week's offer for Corriente Resources, Chinese companies are snapping up businesses and assets around the world. In an article about a copper mine in Afghanistan, the NY Times wrote: 'While the United States spends hundreds of billions of dollars fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda here, China is securing raw material for its voracious economy. The world's superpower is focused on security. Its fastest rising competitor concentrates on commerce.'

James Dimon: In the past two years, the J.P. Morgan Chase CEO has been called 'America's most important banker,' 'the government's banker of choice' and 'Wall Street's sole remaining hero.' He was named 'Banker of Year' by American Banker, a biography was written about him and even President Obama-not one to hand out much praise for the financial industry-said he did a good job. By the end of 2009, Dimon had steered his institution through the financial crisis with his reputation not only in tact intact but also burnished. In fact, his name is routinely dropped as perhaps the next Treasury Secretary.

Warren Buffett: The Oracle of Omaha's ability to take advantage of the financial crisis is marked as much by the deals he did as by the deals he didn't do. As write-downs mounted at financial institutions, one after another came calling hat in hand. Buffett said thanks but no thanks to all but Goldman Sachs Group. How did that work out? Well, Buffett bought $5 billion of Goldman perferred shares with a 10% coupon and a option to buy $5 billion of Goldman common stock at $115 a share. Goldman shares now trade at about $166. To cap off his year, Buffett made the biggest purchase of his career-the $26 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern.

Goldman Sachs: In 2009, Goldman was the Wall Street firm everyone loved to hate. It was called the 'great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity.' It became the face of all that is wrong with Wall Street compensation after setting aside billions of dollars for bonuses just months after accepting billions of taxpayer dollars. Despite all the bruises to its image, Goldman remains a winner for two important reasons: 1)The financial crisis has left it with fewer competitors and 2) all those billions of dollars of profit/compensation are sure to boost the spirits.

Alan Mulally: The Ford Motor CEO deserves significant credit for navigating the auto maker through the financial crisis. The Great Recession crushed the auto industry. Auto sales fell to lows not seen in almost three decades. Unlike rivals General Motors and Chrysler, Ford didn't take government money, and it didn't file for bankruptcy protection. While its rivals remained tethered to the government, Ford grabbed market share. By the second quarter it had returned to profitability. In the third quarter, it posted a profit of nearly $1 billion.

Evan Williams and Biz Stone: The Twitter founders have had plenty of opportunities sell. Businesses such as Google have come knocking. And the pair held out. That seems pretty smart now. In 2009, everyone from athletes to celebrties was tweeting. The number of users surged to 60 million from four million a year earlier. On top of that, Twitter snagged a deal for $100 million in new funding. That valued Twitter at more than $1 billion-triple the valuation inferred by its previous round of capital raising in February. Now, it they could just come up with a revenue model.

Robert Benmosche: Arrogant. Bombastic. The American International Group CEO would hardly be the first leader to be called that. But he is fighting for his employees and he is fighting for his New York insurer. And he just might be the man to get some sort of return out of AIG. For U.S. taxpayers, that would be good news. And let us not forget, he told the governemnt that if they want him, they needed to pay him. And guess what-they did-to the tune of $10.5 million of compensation.

James Gorman and Brian Moynihan: The pair ascended to the upper eschelon of the financial world. Gorman was named to succeed John Mack at Morgan Stanley, while Moynihan took the helm at Bank of America. Each has his work cut out for them. Both financial institutions were shaken by the financial crisis. Rebuilding the confidence at both will be crucial.

Stephen Grocer

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