强
有力的政府刺激计划帮助中国摆脱了金融危机，成为世界增长最快的主要经济体。而就在危机最严重阶段已经过去之时，中国政府正在把更多的资源用于支持消费支出的补贴。批评人士说，集中于提高汽车和家用电器的购买量是短期行为，基本无助于应对更长远的挑战：让中国经济摆脱对出口的依赖，并为国内消费找到新的增长源头。
政府智库中国宏观经济学会(China Society of Macroeconomics)秘书长王建表示，补贴不过是把将来的消费变成了现在的消费，关键的问题是，在外需不断下降的情况下，应该怎样启动国内消费。
中国越来越富裕的消费者怎样消费，已经是全球经济中最受关注的趋势之一，因为他们的消费有助于抵消美国家庭支出的降低。2004年以来，中国的官方政策一直是要提高家庭消费在经济增长中的作用。但这个目标并没有实现，在这段时期，消费支出在经济中的比重从40%下降到了35%。
中国很多经济学家表示，要扭转这一局面，需要拿出对消费者更有利、对国有企业更不利的政策，而这种政策在政治上难以操作。比如，如果解除施加在小企业和民营企业身上的限制，或许有助于创造更多就业岗位，让家庭拥有更多的钱拿去开支。但政府常常是反其道而行之，比如它救助了国家支持的航空公司，而任由民营航空公司破产。
中国同样也拒绝了要求人民币升值的呼吁。如果让人民币升值，出口商可能会受损，但贸易伙伴国认为，此举将提高中国消费者的购买力。温家宝总理上个月表示，中国不会屈从于外界压力而让人民币升值，并提到出口仍然相对疲软。
中国政府掏了大把真金白银来说服消费者购买工业制成品。咨询公司Rhodium Group分析师赫恩曼(Thilo Hanemann)说，2009年中国政府给居民的购车补贴是美国的三倍。
美国政府的车辆以旧换新补贴和购车减税规模分别为30亿美元和17亿美元，而中国在这方面的减税及补贴规模高达148亿美元。公众对此反应强烈：2009年截至10月底，适用于减税政策的车辆购买量增长了63%。截至11月底一项家电以旧换新的购买补贴政策也创造了13亿美元的销售额。
消费者喜欢这些项目，但也在变得要求更多。北京45岁的会计张君（音）说政府的补助政策帮助自己下决心买了一台新的洗衣机。她说正在考虑今年买一台新电视，但是希望能看到有更多刺激政策出台。她说，现在的补贴太低了，我觉得当前的刺激措施还不够。
中国政府上个月说，对小排量汽车的减税政策将延续至今年，但优惠力度有所降低。一起延续的还有其他若干项消费补贴政策。汽车以旧换新政策将提供更高的补贴。而且今年全年都将继续家电补贴政策。
然而，中国家庭储蓄率仍占收入的四分之一以上，这将给消费支出的更快增长带来制约。日后补贴政策或许难以再给消费带来重大提振，因为它能提供的优惠已为许多消费者所笑纳。
虽然其他国家也在利用这样的补贴政策，但政策施用时间没有哪个国家像中国这样长。供职于伦敦宏观经济研究咨询公司Capital Economics的威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)说，这意味着中国政府不能肯定一旦补贴政策失效后，消费是否还能保持强劲。
Andrew Batson
（更新完成）
China's forceful use of government stimulus programs helped it emerge from the financial crisis as the world's fastest-growing major economy. Yet with the worst of the crisis past, the government is putting more resources into subsidies to support consumer spending.
That short-term focus on boosting purchases of automobiles and home appliances, critics say, does little to address the longer-term challenge: weaning China's economy off exports and finding new sources of growth in domestic consumption.
'Subsidies just shift consumption in the future to consumption in the present. All of these small policies will not solve the big problem,' said Wang Jian, secretary-general of the China Society of Macroeconomics, a government think tank. 'The key problem is how to open up domestic consumption now that external demand is declining.'
Spending by China's increasingly prosperous consumers is now one of the most closely watched trends in the global economy, as it could help offset cutbacks by U.S. households. China's official policy since 2004 has been to get more economic growth from household consumption. But that goal hasn't been met: consumer spending's share in the economy has fallen from 40% to 35% over the period.
Many Chinese economists say reversing that requires politically difficult policies that would favor consumers more and state enterprises less. For instance, lifting restrictions on small and private businesses would likely help create more jobs, giving households more money to spend. But the government has often moved in the opposite direction: For instance, it bailed out state-backed airlines while letting their private competitors fail.
China also has rebuffed calls to let its currency rise, a move that could hurt exporters but that trading partners say would boost the purchasing power of Chinese consumers. Premier Wen Jiabao last month said China 'will absolutely not respond' to pressure to let the yuan appreciate, and noted that exports remain relatively weak.
The government is spending substantial sums to get consumers to buy manufactured goods. China budgeted three times as much as the U.S. on subsidies for car purchases in 2009, notes Thilo Hanemann, an analyst for Rhodium Group.
The U.S. set aside $3 billion for its 'cash-for-clunkers' program and $1.7 billion for a tax deduction on car purchases, but China planned $14.8 billion on tax breaks and subsidies for car purchases. The response has been dramatic: Sales of cars eligible for the break are up 63% this year as of the end of October. And a trade-in program to subsidize home-appliance purchases has had $1.3 billion in sales by the end of November.
Consumers like the programs, but are becoming more demanding. Zhang Jun, a 45-year-old accountant in Beijing, said government programs helped persuade her to buy a new washing machine. Ms. Zhang said she is considering buying a new television set this year, but would like to see even more incentives. 'The subsidy is too low. I think the current stimulus effort is not big enough,' she said.
The government said last month the tax break on cars with smaller engines would be extended into 2010, though at a reduced rate, along with a host of other consumer subsidies. A 'cash for clunkers' trade-in program will offer higher rebates next year. Subsidies for purchases of home appliances will be extended through this year.
Yet household savings remain high at over a quarter of income, which constrains how much faster consumer spending can grow. The subsidies probably won't deliver as big of a boost going forward, since many consumers have already taken advantage of them.
While other countries have also used such subsidies, few governments have extended them for as long as China's has. 'It suggests that they're not that confident that consumption will remain strong without these subsidies in force,' said Mark Williams of Capital Economics in London.
Andrew Batson
That short-term focus on boosting purchases of automobiles and home appliances, critics say, does little to address the longer-term challenge: weaning China's economy off exports and finding new sources of growth in domestic consumption.
'Subsidies just shift consumption in the future to consumption in the present. All of these small policies will not solve the big problem,' said Wang Jian, secretary-general of the China Society of Macroeconomics, a government think tank. 'The key problem is how to open up domestic consumption now that external demand is declining.'
Spending by China's increasingly prosperous consumers is now one of the most closely watched trends in the global economy, as it could help offset cutbacks by U.S. households. China's official policy since 2004 has been to get more economic growth from household consumption. But that goal hasn't been met: consumer spending's share in the economy has fallen from 40% to 35% over the period.
Many Chinese economists say reversing that requires politically difficult policies that would favor consumers more and state enterprises less. For instance, lifting restrictions on small and private businesses would likely help create more jobs, giving households more money to spend. But the government has often moved in the opposite direction: For instance, it bailed out state-backed airlines while letting their private competitors fail.
China also has rebuffed calls to let its currency rise, a move that could hurt exporters but that trading partners say would boost the purchasing power of Chinese consumers. Premier Wen Jiabao last month said China 'will absolutely not respond' to pressure to let the yuan appreciate, and noted that exports remain relatively weak.
The government is spending substantial sums to get consumers to buy manufactured goods. China budgeted three times as much as the U.S. on subsidies for car purchases in 2009, notes Thilo Hanemann, an analyst for Rhodium Group.
The U.S. set aside $3 billion for its 'cash-for-clunkers' program and $1.7 billion for a tax deduction on car purchases, but China planned $14.8 billion on tax breaks and subsidies for car purchases. The response has been dramatic: Sales of cars eligible for the break are up 63% this year as of the end of October. And a trade-in program to subsidize home-appliance purchases has had $1.3 billion in sales by the end of November.
Consumers like the programs, but are becoming more demanding. Zhang Jun, a 45-year-old accountant in Beijing, said government programs helped persuade her to buy a new washing machine. Ms. Zhang said she is considering buying a new television set this year, but would like to see even more incentives. 'The subsidy is too low. I think the current stimulus effort is not big enough,' she said.
The government said last month the tax break on cars with smaller engines would be extended into 2010, though at a reduced rate, along with a host of other consumer subsidies. A 'cash for clunkers' trade-in program will offer higher rebates next year. Subsidies for purchases of home appliances will be extended through this year.
Yet household savings remain high at over a quarter of income, which constrains how much faster consumer spending can grow. The subsidies probably won't deliver as big of a boost going forward, since many consumers have already taken advantage of them.
While other countries have also used such subsidies, few governments have extended them for as long as China's has. 'It suggests that they're not that confident that consumption will remain strong without these subsidies in force,' said Mark Williams of Capital Economics in London.
Andrew Batson
没有评论:
发表评论