绿城黄浦湾(Bund House)是位于上海市中心的一个住宅项目。去年8月，该项目一座豪华公寓楼开盘，销售结果令人惊喜：全部88套公寓在开盘首日售罄，每套均价超过1600万元人民币（合230万美元）。
仲量联行(Jones Lang LaSalle)驻上海研究主管柯志谦(Michael Klibaner)表示：“这表明了市场有多么火爆。”
今年迄今为止，黄浦湾仅售出32套公寓，但这批房子的售价上涨了50%左右。第二批公寓与首批公寓几乎完全相同，只是可以更好地观赏到黄浦江的风景。
为什么开发商能在一天之内把投向市场的数十套公寓卖光？柯志谦表示，这是因为中国购房者预期房价会持续上涨。“这种预期可能并不合理，但它的确是造成当前局面的因素之一。”
黄浦湾只是表明上海楼市狂热的诸多例证之一。上海是中国房价最高的地方。在狂热的豪华住宅板块，上海房源的售价是北京的两倍。就连上海郊区“大众化的”住宅公寓，每套售价也要30万美元左右。
中国的房价飙升得如此之高，以至于越来越多的观察人士发出警告，称楼市已形成投机泡沫，崩盘为期不远。
前摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席亚洲经济学家、现居上海的谢国忠(Andy Xie)表示：“中国房地产市场是一个巨大的泡沫。在各大城市，房价收入比（一个衡量住房可承受能力的指标）大多超过了20倍。这意味着，中国内地的普通人需要花费自己20年的全部收入，才能购买一套普通的房产。”
当然，中国私有房产的销售对象是富裕的精英阶层，而不是普通劳动者。因此，衡量住房可承受能力的传统指标可能并不适用。尽管如此，中国政府仍对不断上涨的房价感到担心，并将其视为一项潜在的社会不安定因素。在截至今年3月的一年内，全国大中城市房价上涨了11.7%，这一涨幅是自近五年前开始编制记录以来最大的。
上月，为了遏制房价上涨，中国出台了一些迄今最严厉的措施，旨在打击房地产投机。国务院下令，在房价上涨过快的地区，银行须暂停发放购买第三套及以上住房的贷款，并拒绝向不能提供本地居住证明的购房者发放房贷。
地方政府还获准可自行决定，酌情在一定时期内限定购房套数。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)中国经济学家马骏(Jun Ma)表示：“我们预计，政府未来数月将针对房地产市场出台一些更为有力的反投机政策。”
因此，他预计，中国一些最大城市的平均房价跌幅将高达10%，高端房产可能会缩水20%。
一位在上海从业逾15年的房产中介表示，他从来没有像现在这样担心当地房地产市场。他表示：“房价已上涨到荒谬的水平。”
他表示，在高端地产市场，出租房屋的租金回报率仅为1.5%。
不过，并非所有观察人士都认为上海地产市场很快将步履踉跄。仲量联行的柯志谦表示：“我们认为上海楼市仍相对健康，不过我们对其它一些市场的态度开始变得越来越谨慎。我绝对坚信，上海楼市不是一个泡沫。”
人们之所以把上海与中国其它城市区别看待，有很多的原因，其中包括：上海拥有一个可观的房屋租赁市场，而且是在中国经商和开展金融业务的首选之地。
但是，那种认为会有越来越多的人迁驻上海的观点，并不全然正确。近年来，不少跨国工业企业迁离上海，搬到成本更低的城市。
观察人士预计，即使未来数月房价真的下跌，中国也不太可能重演美国的次贷危机。
中国购房者的负债水平远不及美国购房者。里昂证券(CLSA)驻上海经济学家安迪•罗斯曼(Andy Rothman)表示，在中国售出的所有住房中，购房者以现金全款购买的占到四分之一左右。
房贷的最低首付比例约为20%，有大约半数的购房者被要求支付相当于房价30%至40%的首付。
罗思曼表示：“与全球大多数城市的普通居民一样，上海和沈阳的普通居民买不起市中心的住房，这是一个重大的社会问题。”
“但中国却不乏买得起现在市面上那些房子的人。”这一点无疑是黄浦湾的开发商所希望的。
译者/汪洋
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032462
Bund House, a residential development in central Shanghai, got a pleasant surprise when it put a block of luxury apartments on the market last August. All 88 units sold on the first day for an average price of more than RMB16m ($2.3m).
“It shows how hot the market is,” says Michael Klibaner, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle in Shanghai.
So far this year, Bund House has sold only 32 apartments but this time round the prices are about 50 per cent higher. The second batch of units is almost identical to the first, except that they have better views of Huangpu River.
How is it that a developer can put dozens of units on the market and sell them all in a day? The answer, Mr Klibaner says, is that Chinese buyers expect prices will keep going up. “That may not be a reasonable expectation, but it is a factor in what's driving things right now.”
Bund House is one of many examples of the feverish nature of the Shanghai property market, the most expensive in all China. In the white-hot luxury residential sector, Shanghai prices are double those in Beijing, the capital. Even “mass market” residential apartments in the suburbs cost about $300,000.
So high have Chinese property prices surged that more and more observers warn that a speculative bubble has formed in the market – and that a bust is on its way.
“China's property market is a massive bubble,” says Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist, based in Shanghai. “In major cities, the price-to-income ratio, a measure of housing affordability, is routinely above 20, which means that it would take an average mainlander 20 years to buy the average property using their total income,” he says.
Of course, private property in China is geared towards the rich elite, not the common worker, so traditional measures of housing affordability may not be appropriate. Nonetheless, the government is worried about rising property prices, which it views as a potential source of social unrest. Nationwide urban housing prices rose 11.7 per cent in the year to March, the biggest rise since records began nearly five years ago.
This month, in an attempt to rein in the price rises, China unveiled some of its toughest measures yet to crack down on property speculation. The State Council told banks to stop loans for third-home purchases in regions with excessive property price gains and to deny mortgages to homebuyers who cannot provide proof of local residence.
Local governments have also been given discretion to limit the number of homes that can be bought within a certain period of time. “We expect more aggressive anti-speculation policies for the real estate market in coming months,” says Jun Ma, China economist at Deutsche Bank.
As a result, he predicts, average home prices will fall as much as 10 per cent in the biggest cities, while values of high-end properties could drop 20 per cent.
One property consultant, who has operated in Shanghai for more than 15 years, says he has never felt more worried about the local property market. “Prices have gone beyond the point where they make sense,” he says.
At the top end of the market, he says, properties have a rental yield of just 1.5 per cent.
Yet not all observers are convinced that Shanghai property will falter soon. “We think that the Shanghai market is still relatively healthy, although we're beginning to get more cautious about some of the other markets,” says Mr Klibaner of Jones Lang LaSalle. “I absolutely adamantly believe it's not a bubble.”
There are a number of factors that set Shanghai apart from other cities in China, including the fact that it has a meaningful rental market and is the number one location for business and finance.
But the argument that more and more people will have to locate in Shanghai is true only up to a point. A number of international industrial companies have been moving out of Shanghai in recent years to cheaper cities.
Even if property prices do fall over the coming months, observers expecting a repeat of the US subprime meltdown are likely to be disappointed.
Chinese homebuyers have taken on nowhere near as much debt as their US counterparts. About a quarter of all homes in China are sold for cash, according to Andy Rothman, economist at CLSA in Shanghai.
The minimum cash downpayment is about 20 per cent and about half of buyers are required to put down 30 to 40 per cent cash.
“The fact that the average residents of Shanghai and Shenyang – like the average residents of most cities around the world – cannot afford to buy a home downtown represents a significant social problem,” Mr Rothman says.
“However, there is no shortage of Chinese who can afford the flats now on the market.” The developers of Bund House will certainly be hoping so.
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