美国和中国昨日在北京举行的高层对话中踮着脚尖“起舞”,竭力避免在双方有分歧的朝鲜、汇率等棘手问题上暴露不和。
今年初,美中关系一度似乎在快速恶化,甚至出现了爆发贸易战的可能性。在那之后,两国政府在公开言论中都尽力摆出和解姿态,尽管双方在所有大问题上都没有什么取得进展的迹象。
美中之间的年度对话最初聚焦于经济问题,但奥巴马(Obama)政府扩大了磋商范围,把安全问题纳入其中。这一对话基本上是华盛顿方面主导的努力,目的是与中国政府加强接触,在应对各种全球问题方面争取中国的支持,尽管中国现在在这些会议上不像以往那样安于守势,并且还拿出自己的愿望清单。
中国国家主席胡锦涛承诺,中国将改革实际上盯住美元的汇率政策(这是华盛顿方面与中国交涉的一个重点),但他并未暗示政策变化的时机。
他说:“中国将继续按照主动性、可控性、渐进性原则,稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革。”
在朝鲜问题上,对于3月份韩国“天安”舰遭到击沉一事,美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)选择低调鼓励中方支持奥巴马政府对朝鲜的批评。
“我可以说,中方认识到我们所面对情况的严重性,”她表示。“他们理解韩国方面的反应,他们也理解我方对朝鲜半岛和平与稳定的独特责任。”
中国副总理王岐山敦促美国结束对具有潜在军用价值的“军民两用”技术的出口管制,辩称这样的出口有助于减少中国对美贸易顺差。
住在北京的乔治华盛顿大学(George Washington University)中国问题专家沈大伟(David Shambaugh)表示,这一峰会是两国政府之间的“有用的缓冲区”,目前双方“显然正试图给(今年早些时候)曾急转直下的关系带来一些稳定。”
不过,他表示,虽然美国和中国需要一个讨论长期利益和潜在分歧领域的论坛,但不清楚每年一度的两天会议能否达到这个目的,因为中国的体制“不适合于把所有重要人物放在一个房间里,让他们在众目睽睽之下处理各项主要问题”。而在美国,还没有足够的人接受把中国当作一个平起平坐的对手的想法。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)前中国经济学家、现任职于美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)的埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示,如果北京方面在未来数周内不改变其汇率政策,中国的汇率在美国可能成为一个竞选话题。
“如果中国不快点采取行动,美国财政部将很难抵挡国内要求其把中国列为汇率操纵国的政治压力,”他表示。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032768
The US and China tip-toed around each other at high-level talks in Beijing yesterday, going out of their way to avoid open disagreements on North Korea, exchange rates and other thorny issues that divide them.
After a period at the start of the year when relations appeared to be deteriorating rapidly, raising the possibility of a trade war, both governments were at pains to strike a conciliatory note in their public comments, even though there were few signs of progress on any of the big subjects.
The annual meeting, which began focusing on economic issues but which the Obama administration broadened to include security, is essentially a Washington-led effort to engage more with the Chinese government and to enlist its support in managing global issues, although China is less defensive these days than it used to be at such meetings and also brings its own wish-list.
President Hu Jintao pledged that China would reform a currency policy that in effect pegs the renminbi to the US dollar – one of Washington's priorities in its dealings with China – although he gave no hints of the timing of any policy shift.
“China will continue to steadily advance the reform of the formation of the renminbi exchange rate mechanism under the principle of independent decision-making, controllability and gradual progress,” he said.
On North Korea, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, opted for low-key encouragement of China to back the administration's criticisms of Pyongyang over the sinking of a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March.
“I can say that the Chinese recognise the gravity of the situation we face,” she said. “They understand the reaction by the South Koreans and they understand our unique responsibility for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.”
Wang Qishan, a vice- premier, urged the US to end export controls on “dual-use” technology that has potential military applications, arguing that such exports could help reduce China's trade surplus with the US.
David Shambaugh, a China expert at George Washington University who is based in Beijing, said the summit was a “useful buffer” for two governments that were “clearly trying to bring some stability to a relationship that had been in a downward spiral” earlier in the year.
However, although the US and China needed a forum to discuss long-term interests and potential areas of disagreement, he said, it was not clear whether the annual two-day meeting could achieve this as the Chinese system “is not suited to putting all the main players in a room to deal with the main issues in public”. In the US there was not enough acceptance of the idea of dealing with China as an equal.
Eswar Prasad, a former China economist at the International Monetary Fund and now at Cornell University, said China's exchange rate could become an election issue in the US if Beijing did not shift its currency policy in the coming weeks.
“If China does not act soon, the US Treasury is going to be hard-pressed to fend off domestic political pressures to label China a currency manipulator,” he said.
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