针对3月26日一艘韩国军舰沉没、46名水兵丧生，韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)呼吁展开独立调查。对此，外界的最初反应是他在拖时间。他很可能确实是在拖时间。若匆忙得出结论称朝鲜用鱼雷击沉了那艘军舰，李明博将面临国内要求报复的巨大压力，可能导致韩国与不可预测、拥有核武器和斯大林主义政权的朝鲜出现危险的军事对抗升级。现在，一项国际调查已经确认，平壤方面要对沉船事件负责，世界拥有这样一个选择，即采取更加慎重和协调的行动。但是，要做出可信的国际回应，就需要朝鲜最重要盟友中国的加入。现在该是北京方面有所作为的时候了。
这一局面令中国领导人感到不自在。一方面，对朝鲜加大压力，对中国没有什么利益可言。对平壤方面施加太大压力，可能结果之一便是引发一场危机，甚至导致朝鲜政权垮台。北京方面担心朝鲜的不稳定局面，以及在极端情况下，数百万难民越过边境进入中国。所有迹象似乎都表明，中国宁可要一个反复无常的朝鲜，也不愿面对一个垮台的国家。另一方面，现状是维持不下去的。朝鲜看上去像是毛时代中央集权的中国的怪诞模仿，其体制恰恰是北京方面已经抛弃的。中国许多年轻人肯定对北京方面扶持这样一个可恶的政权感到难堪。
中国总理温家宝表现出北京方面感觉到压力的一些迹象。他在首尔表示，中国将不会袒护韩国军舰沉没事件的肇事者，这使人们产生一线希望，即下个月中国也许不会在联合国安理会上阻挠针对朝鲜的行动。然而，中国仍在闪烁其词，质疑国际调查（由韩国、美国、英国、澳大利亚和瑞典联合进行）的独立性，并重申其呼吁朝鲜半岛稳定的套话。如果朝鲜能够杀死邻国公民而几乎不受惩罚，那这算哪门子稳定？想像一下，如果有46名中国水兵遇难，北京方面将怎样反应？
就像伊朗和缅甸（另一个中国娇惯的恶劣的附庸国）一样，朝鲜展现了中国“不干涉政策”的局限性。当然，这一切都没有现成的答案。但至少李明博已让世人把注意力集中于中国，并突显出，不干涉并不总是像中国所夸耀的那样，是一种善意的信条。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032881
When Lee Myung-bak, South Korea's president, reacted to the March 26 sinking of a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 lives by calling for an independent inquiry, the initial reaction was that he was playing for time. He probably was. To rush to the conclusion that North Korea had torpedoed the ship would have put him under pressure to retaliate, risking a dangerous military escalation with his unpredictable, nuclear-armed Stalinist neighbour. Now an international inquiry has confirmed that Pyongyang was responsible, the world has the option to take more measured, co-ordinated action. But to mount a credible international response, China – Pyongyang's most important ally – needs to be on board. The ball is now in Beijing's court.
This makes life uncomfortable for China's leaders. On the one hand, they have little interest in piling pressure on North Korea. A possible outcome of squeezing Pyongyang till the pips squeak is to provoke a crisis or even a collapse of the regime. Beijing fears North Korean instability and the possibility, in extreme circumstances, of millions of refugees crossing the border into China. Every indication suggests it would prefer a volatile North Korea to a failed state. On the other hand, the status quo is untenable. North Korea looks like a grotesque parody of Mao's centrally controlled China, precisely the sort of system that Beijing has left behind. Many younger Chinese must find it embarrassing that Beijing is propping up such an odious regime.
Wen Jiabao, China's premier, has shown some signs that Beijing feels the pressure. In Seoul, he said China would not protect whoever sank the warship, offering a glimmer of hope that Beijing might not block action at the United Nations Security Council next month. Yet China is still obfuscating, questioning the independence of the international inquiry – conducted by South Korea, the US, the UK, Australia and Sweden – and reiterating its tired call for stability on the peninsula. What kind of stability is it if Pyongyang is able to kill citizens of neighbouring countries with virtual impunity? Imagine how Beijing would have reacted if it were 46 dead Chinese sailors.
As with Iran and Burma – another nasty client-state coddled by China – North Korea points up the limits of Beijing's policy of non-interference. Of course, there are no easy answers. But at least Mr Lee has put the spotlight on China and revealed that non-intervention is not always the benign doctrine Beijing makes it out to be.
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