中印正引领一波城市扩展浪潮，这将推动亚洲复兴，重获其在欧洲与北美工业革命之前所拥有的国际显要地位。到2025年，近25亿亚洲人将居住在城市，占到世界城市人口的近54%。从2005到2025年，中印两国将占到亚洲城市人口增长的逾62%，世界城市人口增长的40%。
1950年，印度的城市化水平高于中国（前者为17%，后者为13%）。但从1950年到2005年，中国的城市化速度远远超出了印度——前者的城市化率升至41%，后者为29%。麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute, MGI)的新研究显示，该趋势将继续：预计到2025年，中国城市人口将新增4亿，占到该国总人口的64%；印度城市人口将新增2.15亿，占到该国总人口的38%。
历史上此前从未出现过世界上两个人口最多的国家同时（且以如此快的速度）进行城市化。这一进程将会推动两国内部发生一些根本性的变化，而这些变化将会对世界经济产生深远影响，并给投资者带来令人兴奋的新机遇。
从2005到2025年，印度城市人均国内生产总值(GDP)的年增长率将达到6%，中国将达到7.3%。到2025年，印度真正拥有可自由支配收入能力的城市家庭，可能会增长7倍，至8900万户。中国目前拥有5500万户中产阶层家庭。到2025年，该数字可能会增长逾3倍，接近2.8亿户，占中国所有城市家庭的75%以上。对于企业而言，城市人均收入与中产阶层家庭数量的大幅增长，可能会催生众多充满活力的新市场。
那么，哪些市场可能从这些趋势中获益最多？到2025年，印度最大的市场将是交通运输、食品、医疗保健，其次是房地产及公用事业、娱乐及教育。即使印度的消费类别增长较慢，对企业而言，它仍然会提供重要机遇，因为与世界其它地区相比，印度的这些市场仍然增长迅速。如今，在中国的城市，增长最迅速的类别可能是交通运输、房地产及公用事业、个人产品、医疗保健、娱乐与教育。另外，不管是在中国还是在印度，城市基础设施市场规模都将蔚为可观。比如，从2005到2025年，印度每年将需增加7至9亿平方米的建筑面积，而中国可能需要增加16至19亿平方米。同期，印度每年将需增加至少350到400公里的城市轨道交通与地铁线路，而中国则需增加近1000公里。
中印两国城市化的速度和规模所释放出的新市场规模是毋庸置疑的。但尽管如此，企业还必须有实际能力为这些市场服务。城市的管理方式——及其导致的生产率——是影响企业的一个主要因素。在这一点上，中国的情况要远优于印度。印度几乎没有关注城市转型的问题，而中国已经发展出了一套自成一体的实践，覆盖城市化运营模式的方方面面：融资、治理、规划、部门政策、以及城市面貌。印度对城市投资不足，而中国的投资已经走在需求前面，而且中国城市有自由通过将土地资产货币化、以及保留25%的增值税，来募集可观的投资资源。印度每年在城市基础设施上的人均支出是17美元，而中国是116美元。印度城市没有多少实权和责任，而中国的主要城市可享受与省份相当的地位，而且被任命的市长拥有很大的政治权力和授权。印度的城市规划体制未能应对各方对城市空间相互竞争的需求，而中国拥有成熟的城市规划体制，强调旧城区的系统性发展要与土地使用、住房及交通的长期规划相一致。
中印两国之间最鲜明的反差是，中国拥抱城市化，并对其加以塑造，而印度仍然刚刚认识到自己的城市现状，以及城市为其经济和社会转型提供的机遇。
然而，如果印度能够修正其城市运营模式，它仍有可能从下个十年里预计将增加的近2.5亿工作年龄人口中，收获人口结构红利。这种人口结构红利甚至要超过中国——因为中国人口将快速老龄化。到2025年，中国55岁及以上的人口比例将达到近28%，而印度将只有16%——其人口构成要年轻很多。如果印度能够使其城市发挥最优生产率，并最大化城市的GDP产出，其经济将在2005年至2025年间新增逾1.7亿城镇工人。而同期中国的新增城镇工人只有5000万。这事关重大。
多布斯是麦肯锡全球研究所总监、麦肯锡(McKinsey)驻首尔董事。桑科是麦肯锡驻孟买董事。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032738
China and India are in the vanguard of a wave of urban expansion that is driving the renaissance of Asia toward the global prominence the region had before the European and North American industrial revolution. By 2025, nearly 2.5bn Asians will live in cities, accounting for almost 54 per cent of the world's urban population. India and China alone will account for more than 62 per cent of the Asian urban population growth and a 40 per cent of global urban population growth between 2005 and 2025.
In 1950, India was a more urban nation than China (17 per cent of the population lived in cities compared with China's 13 per cent). But from 1950 to 2005, China urbanized far more rapidly than India to an urbanization rate of 41 per cent compared with 29 per cent in India. New research from the McKinsey Global Institute expects this pattern to continue with China forecast to add 400m to its urban population, which will account for 64 per cent of the total population by 2025, and India to add 215m to its cities whose populations will account for 38 per cent of the total in 2025.
Never before in history have two of the largest nations in terms of population urbanized at the same time—and at such pace. This process will drive fundamental shifts in both countries that will have significant consequences for the world economy and offer exciting new opportunities for investors.
In India, urban per capita GDP will grow at a rate of 6 per cent a year between 2005 and 2025, while China will see a growth of 7.3 per cent. The number of urban households with true discretionary spending power in India could increase seven fold to 89m households in 2025. In China, there are 55m middle-class households today. That number could more than quadruple to nearly 280m in 2025 to represent more than three-quarters of all China's urban households. For businesses, the significant increase in per capita urban incomes and middle-income households offer the potential of vibrant new markets to serve.
So what markets are likely to benefit the most from these trends? In India, by 2025, the largest markets will be transportation and communication, food, and health care, followed by housing and utilities, recreation, and education. Even India's slower growing spending categories will represent significant opportunities for businesses because these markets will still be growing rapidly in comparison with their counterparts in other parts of the world. In China's cities today, the fastest-growing categories are likely to be transportation and communication, housing and utilities, personal products, health care, and recreation and education. In addition, in both China and India, urban infrastructure markets will be massive. For example, between 2005 and 2025, India will need to add between 700m and 900m square meters of floor space a year; in China, the required numbers could be between 1,600m and 1,900m square meters. During the same period, India will need to add at least 350 to 400 kilometres of metro rail and subways annually while the equivalent number in China will be closer to 1,000 kilometres.
There is little doubt about the scale of the new markets in India and China unleashed by the pace and scale of their urbanization. But businesses still need to be able to serve these markets in practical terms. The way cities are run—and the productivity that results—is a major factor for companies. Here, China is in much better shape than India. While India has barely paid attention to its urban transformation, China has developed a set of internally consistent practices across every element of the urbanization operating model: funding, governance, planning, sectorial policies, and shape. India has underinvested in its cities; China has invested ahead of demand and given its cities the freedom to raise substantial investment resources by monetizing land assets and retaining a 25 per cent share of value added taxes. While India spends $17 per capita in capital investments in urban infrastructure annually, China spends $116. Indian cities have devolved little real power and accountability to its cities; but China's major cities enjoy the same status as provinces and have powerful and empowered political appointees as mayors. While India's urban planning system has failed to address competing demands for space, China has a mature urban planning regime that emphasizes the systematic development of run-down areas consistent with long range plans for land use, housing, and transportation.
The starkest contrast between the two countries is that China has embraced and shaped urbanization while India is still waking up to its urban reality and the opportunities that its cities offer for economic and social transformation.
However, if India fixes its urban operating model, it has the potential to reap a demographic dividend from the increase in working age population of around 250m expected in the next decade. This demographic dividend is even larger than that in China, as China is aging rapidly. By 2025, nearly 28 per cent of China's population will be aged 55 or older compared with only 16 per cent in India, whose population profile is much more youthful. If India optimizes the productivity of its cities and maximizes their generation of GDP, the economy could add over 170m urban workers to its labour force between 2005 and 2025 compared with 50m in China over the same period. The stakes are high.
Richard Dobbs is a Director of MGI and a Director of McKinsey, based in Seoul. Shirish Sankhe is a director of McKinsey based in Mumbai.
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