冷战已重返朝鲜半岛。一个国际调查委员会已确认，朝鲜须对3月份韩国"天安"舰(Cheonan)无端被炸沉、造成46名水兵丧生的事件负责。在此之前，上月首尔方面指称，朝鲜曾试图刺杀一位知名叛逃者。
平壤方面已重新启用上世纪70年代的战术，当时刺杀和跨境破坏是朝方的标准政策工具。
至于这究竟是为什么，则不太清楚。一些证据显示，朝鲜正面临一场国内危机。去年冬季的一场货币改革搞砸了，导致食品短缺。对韩国采取更加咄咄逼人的姿态，也有可能是金正日接班战略的一部分。这位朝鲜统治者两年前中风发作，据报道现在正安排第三个儿子接班。甚至还有人提出，炸沉韩国军舰可能是一个未经授权的行动，是朝鲜内部某个变节指挥官的展示实力之举。
但是，无论支撑朝鲜挑衅的逻辑是什么，既然已经查明平壤方面是罪魁祸首，就不能让这一攻击行为逃脱惩罚。对金正日具有少许影响力的中国，已迅速呼吁双方冷静。就现状来说，这没什么不对。没有人（尤其是韩国人）希望韩朝在分界线上爆发冲突。但是，有必要采取超越言辞的行动。
诚然，人们的选择有限。鉴于朝鲜勉强维生的经济本来就处于糟糕状态，制裁将是一种既无效、又不人道的回应。切断朝鲜政权的海外资金来源或许会更有效。三年前，朝鲜以澳门为基地的一个洗钱网络遭到暴露和冻结，此举给朝鲜造成了相当大的痛苦。
如果中国愿意发挥自己的作用，任何措施的力度都将得到增强。迄今，中国倾向于只有当朝鲜的行动威胁到战略平衡大局的情况下，才进行干预。因此，弹道导弹试验和核爆炸事关重大，而韩国人被杀似乎就没那么紧要。中方辩称，他们不希望破坏金正日政权的稳定，因为那可能导致在中国的自己"后院"发生混乱。
但在朝鲜逐渐接近成为正式核武国家之际，世界越来越需要显示出，在卑劣的金正日政权的挑衅面前，它并非无能为力。中国有志于在全球舞台上扮演更重要的角色。现在正是中国表现自己的时候。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032731
The cold war has returned to the Korean peninsular. An international board of investigation has confirmed that North Korea was responsible for the unprovoked sinking in March of the Cheonan, a South Korean warship, with the loss of 46 sailors. This follows the revelation by Seoul last month of a North Korean plot to assassinate a high-profile defector.
Pyongyang has reverted to the tactics of the 1970s, when assassinations and cross-border sabotage were a standard tool of policy.
Quite why is less clear. There is some evidence that North Korea is facing a domestic crisis. A currency revaluation over the winter was botched, leading to food shortages. Greater aggression towards the South may also be part of a succession strategy by Kim Jong-il. The country's ruler, who suffered a stroke two years ago, is reportedly lining up his third son as his successor. It has even been suggested that the sinking may have been a maverick act � a power play by a renegade military commander within North Korea.
But whatever the logic underpinning North Korea's aggression, the attack must not pass unpunished now that the blame has been pinned on Pyongyang. China � which has a modicum of sway over Mr Kim � has swiftly called for calm on both sides. This is fine as far as it goes. No one, least of all the South Koreans, wants conflict on the 39th parallel. But there is a need for more than just rhetoric.
The options are admittedly limited. Given the miserable condition of North Korea's subsistence economy, sanctions would be neither an effective nor a humane response. It may be more effective to cut off the regime's access to foreign sources of finance. The exposure and freezing three years ago of a money-laundering network centred in Macau caused North Korea considerable anguish.
The force of any measures would be increased were China willing to play its part. To date, Beijing has tended to intervene only when Pyongyang's activities threaten the wider strategic balance. So while ballistic missile tests and nuclear explosions matter, killing South Koreans appears to rank lower. The Chinese argue that they do not wish to destabilise Mr Kim's regime, as to do so might risk chaos in their own back yard.
But with North Korea creeping to full nuclear status, there is a growing need for the world to show it is not powerless in the face of provocations from Mr Kim's despicable regime. China aspires to a greater global role. Now is the chance to demonstrate it.
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