2010年5月11日

中资投行何时能真正走向世界? China's Investment Banks Hope The Good Times Last

国新兴的投资银行业已晋身亚洲顶尖投行阵容,甚至开始在中国大陆以外地区赢得业务。

眼下一个重大挑战是它们能否在最近的成功上更进一步,还是说它们会否像日本投行那样,虽然名声在外但仍需为海外扩张而苦苦挣扎。

名义上看来,中国银行业今年取得了重大进展。上个月中国银行(Bank Of China Ltd.)为其70亿美元的香港H股配股交易指定了五家承销商,其中三家为中资投行,另两家是国际投行。通常情况下,大型西方投行能赢得香港的交易,而中资投行的业务通常只限制于大陆境内。

在这桩交易里中资投行占比之高令许多人感到惊奇,当时约有20家投行(其中四分之三为大型全球性投行)在北京参与了两轮激烈的竞标。

在除日本的亚洲地区,核心业务收入排名前十的投行中有五家来自中国大陆。Dealogic发布的数据显示,中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司(Ping An Insurance (Group) Co.)旗下的平安证券(Ping An Securities)在上述榜单中排名第三,高盛(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)分列第一和第二。

中国卫浴产品及水龙头生产商中宇卫浴(Joyou AG) 3月份在法兰克福进行了1.05亿欧元(约合1.337亿美元)首次公开募股(IPO),麦格理(Macquarie Capital Ltd.)及中国国际金融有限公司(China International Capital Corp.)担任了交易的全球联席协调人和簿记行。

英国酒业巨头帝亚吉欧(Diageo PLC)在3月份收购四川水井坊股份有限公司(Sichuan Swellfun Co.) 60%股权时,瑞银(UBS)和中信证券(CITIC Securities Co.)分别担当了交易顾问。这改变了大陆典型并购交易的模式,一般情况下,西方银行会因为自身的丰富经验而赢得业务。

不过,数据表明中国投行的战绩大多来自本土,如果中国蓬勃的市场出现退潮,那么中国投行也可能辉煌不再。

事实上,中国的投资银行业一直在互相帮助。中国银行选择了自己的投行子公司来承销IPO,同样地也照顾到了工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)和建设银行(China Construction Bank Ltd.)的投行业务。工行和建行正计划在进行新股发行,观察人士相信这些银行之间会投桃报李。

如果不算上承销大陆股票,中资投行在除日本外亚洲的股票资本市场业务排名跌出了前20。

中国投行缺少国际分销业务,而且和能够吸纳大量新股及其他股票和债券的全球大型投资者关系一般。

在处理一些超大型交易时,这一问题会变得更加突出。例如中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)的首次公开募股规模将达到300亿美元,这些股票必须在全球市场上发售,而不是仅限于中国。

中资银行还必须克服文化差异问题,这一点曾给其他海外同盟带来过麻烦。虽然野村控股(Nomura Holdings Inc.)通过两年前收购雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的亚洲和欧洲业务提高了自己的盈利水平,但它仍在努力让自己的表现稳定下来。

类似于中信证券联手法国农业信贷集团(Credit Agricole)这样的开创性结盟或许有助于加强中资银行的竞争力。通过结盟,中信证券可以借助法国农业信贷集团旗下久负盛名的里昂证券(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)的股票分销实力。

不过,眼下看来,中资投行的成功来源于强劲的本土市场。现在还不清楚,仅靠这一点能否帮助它们在有意寻求投行帮助的公司当中变得赫赫有名。

Amy Or


China's budding investment banks have zoomed to the top of the all-important league tables in Asia, and have even begun to win business outside the mainland.

The major test now will be whether they can build on their recent success, or whether they follow the same path as Japan's banks, which have gained prominence but are still struggling to expand outside their home country.

On paper, China's banks have made great strides this year. When Bank of China Ltd. assigned banks to underwrite its planned $7 billion offering in Hong Kong last month, it gave the business to three Chinese banks and two international banks. Typically, big Western banks win Hong Kong business, while Chinese banks are confined to mainland offerings.

The extent of the Chinese banks' representation surprised many, given some 20 lenders -- three-quarters of which were big, global investment banks -- participated in two vigorous rounds of pitching for the business in Beijing.

Five Chinese banks are among the top 10 earners of core investment-banking revenue in Asia, excluding Japan. Ping An Securities Co., the brokerage arm of Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd., ranked third behind Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., according to Dealogic.

Chinese faucet maker Joyou AG's 105 million euro ($133.7 million) Frankfurt initial public offering in March was handled by Macquarie Capital and China International Capital Corp.

When U.K. beverage company Diageo PLC acquired a 60% stake in China's Sichuan Swellfun Co. in March, it was jointly advised by UBS AG and Citic Securities International Co. That was a switch from the typical mainland merger deals, in which Western banks usually win the business because of their experience.

But a look at the numbers show that much of China's league-table success is homegrown and could ebb if formerly booming Chinese markets decline.

In fact, China's investment banks are helping each other. Bank of China assigned its own bank to its offering, as well as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Ltd. ICBC and China Construction are planning new share offerings, and observers believe they will likely reciprocate.

In fact, stripping out the impact from underwriting domestic share issues, Chinese banks' rankings drop out of the top 20 in the equity-capital-market league table for Asia excluding Japan.

Chinese investment banks lack global distribution, the relationships with major global investors that typically pledge to take up large chunks of IPOs and other share and debt offerings.

The issue may be even more pronounced in handling a megadeal, such as Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.'s expected offering of as much as $30 billion. Shares will have to be sold globally, not just in China.

Chinese banks also will have to overcome cultural issues that have plagued cross-border alliances elsewhere. Japan's Nomura Holdings Inc. has seen its bottom line enhanced by its purchase of the Asian and European businesses of Lehman Brothers two years ago, but it is still working to establish a steady presence in league tables.

Innovative tie-ups like one being discussed between China's largest brokerage, Citic Securities Co. and Credit Agricole SA, may help Chinese banks compete. Through the alliance, Citic could tap the well-respected Asian-Pacific equities distribution network of the French bank's CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets unit.

But for now, the Chinese investment banks' success stems from the strength of the domestic market. It is yet to be seen whether that will give the banks household-name status among companies looking for investment-banking help.

Amy Or

没有评论: