多
数人都会同意，世界最强大的两个国家之间应该展开对话。不过，凡事都不要走过了头。
Bloomberg News
美国国务卿克林顿和财政部长盖特纳出席中美战略与经济对话。
除了国务卿希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和财政部长蒂莫西•盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)这两位联席团长以外，代表团还包括：
美联储主席本•贝南克(Ben Bernanke)；
商务部部长骆家辉(Gary Locke)；
卫生与公共服务部部长凯瑟琳•赛贝林斯(Kathleen Sebelius)；
美国贸易代表罗恩•科克(Ron Kirk)；
经济顾问委员会主席克里斯蒂娜•罗默(Christina Romer)；
白宫科技政策办公室主任约翰•霍尔德伦(John Holdren)；
美国进出口银行董事长弗雷德•赫希贝格(Fred P. Hochberg)；
联邦存款保险公司董事长谢拉•贝尔(Sheila Bair)；
美国贸易和开发署署长里欧卡蒂亚•扎克(Leocadia Zak)。
当然还有美国驻华大使洪博培(Jon Huntsman)及其庞大使馆的1,100多名工作人员。很多工作人员将被指派去协助这次超大峰会的工作。
中国方面显然无意屈居人后。财政部部长助理朱光耀在上周四的一次吹风会上说：至于中国代表团的组成，我想告诉你们，作为这一轮战略与经济对话的东道主，中国有一支非常庞大的团队；中国代表团的规模肯定会超过美国代表团，因为中国是东道主。
升级为“战略与经济对话”之前的“战略经济对话”就已经是一场相当庞大的活动。“战略经济对话”始于2006年，每半年举行一次，美方代表团一直由当时的美中关系主导者、美国前财政部长亨利•鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)率领，成员包括能源部和环境保护署等其他部门，但对话的重点很明确，那就是经济。
随着奥巴马政府上台，连同希拉里•克林顿这个强势的国务卿上台后，“战略经济对话”中间加了一个“与”字，变成“战略与经济对话”，其范围也一下覆盖了差不多是双边关系的全部，再考虑到美国和中国都是举足轻重的大国，等于世界上的大部分重要话题都包括进去了。在对话内容涉及面扩大一倍多的同时，奥巴马政府同北京方面一起把对话频度减半，变为一年一次。
问题来了：在一年大约两天的时间里，就那么几场会谈，中间还夹杂有媒体拍照和宴会活动，这一方几百位官员，那一方也是几百位官员，那么他们到底能不能取得什么实质性的“成果”（即宣布有关即将采取哪些措施的实际宣言和协议）呢？恐怕不能。
纽约咨询公司Eurasia Group分析师Damien Ma在上周三发表简报说，我们对今年战略与经济对话取得明显成果的期望不高。他说，汇率等热门话题将局限于口头范围，这场为期两天的对话不太可能达成实质性的步骤。他说唯一的成果可能是在绿色能源方面，并认为周一和周二某些讨论的目的将只是暗示其他双边会谈的议程，比如7月份美中商贸易联合委员会(Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade)的会谈。
但就算是没有成果，让两国官员一年聚在一起聊一次可能还是有意义的。正如Damien Ma所言，对话可以显示出双方敢于在避免直接冲突的情况下提出尖锐的话题。考虑到双边关系的重要性，这肯定是具有某种价值的。不过话说回来，这一点用不着这200多位官员悉数到场或许也可以实现，对话正在进行的时候，华盛顿总还是要有人来做决定的吧。
Jason Dean
Most people would agree that it's desirable for the world's two most powerful countries to talk. But can you have too much of a good thing?
Reading the list of U.S. participants in the annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that starts Monday, one could be forgiven for thinking that most of the executive branch of the U.S. government is temporarily relocating to Beijing. Washington's planned delegation as of Wednesday numbered about 200 people (and it could end up being more), including at least 15 Cabinet secretaries and agency chiefs.
Among them, in addition to mission leaders Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk, Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director John Holdren, U.S. Export-Import Bank Chairman Fred P. Hochberg, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair, and U.S. Trade and Development Agency Director Leocadia Zak.
And then, of course, there is Ambassador Jon Huntsman and his staff of more than 1,100 at the giant U.S. Embassy in Beijing, many of whom will be assigned to help work on the mega-summit.
The Chinese clearly have no intention of being outdone. 'As for the make up of the Chinese delegation, I want to tell you as the host of this round of the S&ED [that] China has a very big team,' Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao told a briefing Thursday. 'The size of the Chinese delegation will certainly be larger than the U.S. delegation because China is the host.'
The U.S.-China talks were already a rather unwieldy affair in the pre-ampersand era. Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who dominated the U.S. relationship with China and spearheaded the semi-annual Strategic Economic Dialogue from its start in 2006, included other agencies such as the Energy Department and the EPA, but the focus of the talks was explicitly economic.
With the Obama administration, and its much more powerful secretary of state, the 'and' was added, turning it into the S&ED (or, our preferred shorthand, the SnED) and, in a stroke, making its purview encompass almost the totality of bilateral relations--which, given the size and importance of the U.S. and China, includes most of what is important to talk about in the world. And while more than doubling the range of content, the Obama administration--in conjunction with Beijing--halved the number of sessions per year, to one.
So the question is whether hundreds upon hundreds of officials in a handful of meetings scattered between photo ops and banquets spread over roughly two days a year can actually get anything substantive accomplished. Measured in terms of 'deliverables' (diplo-speak for actual announcements or agreements to do things), probably not.
'Our expectations for significant deliverables at this year's S&ED are low,' Damien Ma, analyst at New York-based consulting firm Eurasia Group, wrote in a note Wednesday. He said 'headline issues like currency' will reside 'in the rhetorical realm. Concrete steps are unlikely to be reached in the two-day session.' Ma said the only deliverables may be on green energy, and argued that some of the discussion on Monday and Tuesday is merely aimed at signaling agendas for other bilateral meetings, such as the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, or JCCT, slated for July. (Don't ask.)
But even without deliverables, there may be value to having American and Chinese officials get together for an annual chat. As Ma said, the event can 'showcase both sides' comfort in raising thorny issues without outright conflict.' The importance of the relationship being what it is, that is certainly worth something--although perhaps it could be accomplished without all 200-plus of those officials, just in case somebody needs to make a decision in Washington when the SnED is in session.
Jason Dean
Reading the list of U.S. participants in the annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that starts Monday, one could be forgiven for thinking that most of the executive branch of the U.S. government is temporarily relocating to Beijing. Washington's planned delegation as of Wednesday numbered about 200 people (and it could end up being more), including at least 15 Cabinet secretaries and agency chiefs.
Among them, in addition to mission leaders Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk, Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director John Holdren, U.S. Export-Import Bank Chairman Fred P. Hochberg, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair, and U.S. Trade and Development Agency Director Leocadia Zak.
And then, of course, there is Ambassador Jon Huntsman and his staff of more than 1,100 at the giant U.S. Embassy in Beijing, many of whom will be assigned to help work on the mega-summit.
The Chinese clearly have no intention of being outdone. 'As for the make up of the Chinese delegation, I want to tell you as the host of this round of the S&ED [that] China has a very big team,' Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao told a briefing Thursday. 'The size of the Chinese delegation will certainly be larger than the U.S. delegation because China is the host.'
The U.S.-China talks were already a rather unwieldy affair in the pre-ampersand era. Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who dominated the U.S. relationship with China and spearheaded the semi-annual Strategic Economic Dialogue from its start in 2006, included other agencies such as the Energy Department and the EPA, but the focus of the talks was explicitly economic.
With the Obama administration, and its much more powerful secretary of state, the 'and' was added, turning it into the S&ED (or, our preferred shorthand, the SnED) and, in a stroke, making its purview encompass almost the totality of bilateral relations--which, given the size and importance of the U.S. and China, includes most of what is important to talk about in the world. And while more than doubling the range of content, the Obama administration--in conjunction with Beijing--halved the number of sessions per year, to one.
So the question is whether hundreds upon hundreds of officials in a handful of meetings scattered between photo ops and banquets spread over roughly two days a year can actually get anything substantive accomplished. Measured in terms of 'deliverables' (diplo-speak for actual announcements or agreements to do things), probably not.
'Our expectations for significant deliverables at this year's S&ED are low,' Damien Ma, analyst at New York-based consulting firm Eurasia Group, wrote in a note Wednesday. He said 'headline issues like currency' will reside 'in the rhetorical realm. Concrete steps are unlikely to be reached in the two-day session.' Ma said the only deliverables may be on green energy, and argued that some of the discussion on Monday and Tuesday is merely aimed at signaling agendas for other bilateral meetings, such as the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, or JCCT, slated for July. (Don't ask.)
But even without deliverables, there may be value to having American and Chinese officials get together for an annual chat. As Ma said, the event can 'showcase both sides' comfort in raising thorny issues without outright conflict.' The importance of the relationship being what it is, that is certainly worth something--although perhaps it could be accomplished without all 200-plus of those officials, just in case somebody needs to make a decision in Washington when the SnED is in session.
Jason Dean
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