许
世森放下电话笑了。这位热电厂的总工程师解释道，电话是从加拿大打来的。热电厂位于北京郊区，周围有一些卖仿旧的古玩和艺术品的商店。一家加拿大公司对许世森在降低煤炭燃烧排放的温室气体和碳捕获技术成本上的进展很感兴趣。许世森领导的工程师正在努力破解气候变化的一个最为棘手的问题：如何在不向大气中排放碳的情况下燃烧煤炭。
许世森是中国在这个世界增长最快的工业国家推广清洁技术的一个见证，随着中国在从起重机到电脑的几乎所有领域开展这项工作，这个雄心勃勃的使命最终可能会重塑各项业务。
中国在哥本哈根全球气候峰会上不容小视，中国官员正给美国和其它富裕国家施压，要求其接受新的限制其排放的条款，并继续对贫穷国家采纳清洁能源技术的做法予以补贴。中国是世界上最大的碳排放国。人们不太了解的是，中国现在正在成为其中一些解决办法的发源地。
所谓的中国价格，即廉价的劳动力和资本的结合的做法，改变了制造业的规则，并正扩散到清洁技术领域。麦肯锡(McKinsey & Co.)中国办事处的董事华强森(Jonathan Woetzel)说，中国价格将进入可再生能源领域，特别是依赖于资本密炮等 渗铌蝠 C
中国政府也在支持这种趋势。它希望复制经济特区的成功，这种模式将深圳从毗邻香港的渔村转变为了全球最大的制造业出口中心之一。在上世纪80年代中国改革开放之际成立的这些特区希望吸引海外投资进入轻工制造领域，以推动出口。它们成为了中国经济繁荣的引擎。
监管机构明年将会宣布几个低碳中心，出台优惠政策促进低碳生产和出口。
中国的目标面临着巨大挑战。中国最终可能只是成为一个低成本的生产基地，而不是创新的发源地。更糟的是，它在降低成本上的努力可能会扼杀海外的创新。
中国在减少碳排放的道路上还有很长的路要走。对于在为期两年的清理过程中关闭的每家过时的发电厂，它又新产生了大约两倍于此的发电能力。甚至情况更好一些的发电厂也运行不善，因为公司的负责人不愿支付清理排放的费用。
在对抗全球变暖的斗争中，最大的收获中将有一部分来自清理燃煤电厂的碳排放。中国和美国总计占全球煤炭储量的44%，并且不打算放弃这种廉价可靠的电力来源。根据美国政府的预测，全球煤炭使用量到2030年时可能会增加近50%。
位于美国的清洁空气任务小组(Clean Air Task Force)的专家刘易斯(Jonathan Lewis)说，如果发电厂不减少排放，全球变暖将无法避免。解决方案可由美国和中国牵头。这个小组一直希望将美国的公用事业公司与中国企业搭配到一起。
碳捕捉技术捕获的是燃煤工厂排放的二氧化碳。被捕捉的二氧化碳可以被深储于地下，特别是盐洞或废旧油井中。碳可以在煤燃烧前后进行剥离。燃烧后的碳捕捉技术更为简单，而且只需在现有燃煤电厂中进行技术改造即可。目前的技术会将能源产出削减五分之一甚至更多。
煤燃烧前的碳捕捉要复杂的多，需要对电厂进行重新设计。煤炭需要转换为气体，剥离其中的碳，然后燃烧剩余部分。这种运用煤气化联合循环发电(IGCC)技术建成的电厂造价高达数十亿美元，目前尚未投入商业运营。
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中国的很多工厂，比如尚德太阳能位于无锡的这家工厂，已经推低了太阳能板的价格。
批评人士称当前的碳捕捉技术不过是全球变暖问题的一块"创可贴"；因为它们能效很低，甚至为取得同样的电能而不得不燃烧更多的煤。此外，这项技术还是用水大户，而且将碳封存于地下也是未经证实的技术。
不过，仍有一些分析师预计，在2100年前，在全球减排总量中有15%至55%将来自于碳捕捉技术。
许世森就是领军人物之一。这些日子来，他为了三个清洁燃煤电厂项目而忙碌。它们当中一个设于北京郊区，北京高碑店华能电厂的冷却塔的下方。
许世森和他的同事供职于一家国有研究机构，该机构部分隶属于中国最大的公共事业企业华能集团公司(China Huaneng Group)。这家国有巨型企业生产的电能占全国将近十分之一，几乎全部通过燃煤获得。
在2008年奥运会开幕前就已建成的北京高碑店项目捕捉了该工厂排放的部分二氧化碳，在对其进行提纯后卖给了食品包装企业及碳酸饮料厂家。根据在北京所学，许世森目前正在上海兴建一家规模为高碑店项目30倍的新工厂。
如果许世森的团队可以将成本降下来（主要是通过回收碳剥离过程中的能源损失），那么这些设备可以改装成为新一代燃煤电厂，并推广至全球。
许世森还参与了"绿色煤电"(GreenGen)项目，这一华能牵头、耗资10亿美元的项目能在煤炭燃烧前将其转化为气体，计划于2011年建成。燃气比燃煤更高效，意味着产生同样的电能只需较少的煤炭；燃煤越少，碳排放越少。
分析师指出，虽然碳捕捉技术已经成为主流，但真正普及至少需要5到10年时间。
与此同时，中国正在重塑两大业已得到普遍应用的绿色能源行业：风能和太阳能。
据能源研究机构IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates说，2004年，外国公司在中国的风力涡轮机市场占有八成份额。现在中国企业拥有75%的占有率，因为国产设备较欧洲产品便宜三分之一。
中国的风力涡轮机开始进行出口。10月份，沈阳电力集团(Shenyang Power Group)签署了一项协议，为美国得克萨斯州一风电厂项目提供240台风力涡轮机。该项目占地36,000英亩，是美国最大的风电项目之一。
中国在全球光电太阳能板市场中已占有了30%份额。尚德太阳能(Suntech Power)、英利绿色能源(Yingli Green Energy)以及天合光能(Trina Solar)等太阳能板企业将大多数产品出口到了欧美市场，令全球此类产品价格下降了30%。
来自中国的竞争正在迫使竞争对手们调整生产。美国太阳能发电产品厂商Evergreen Solar Inc.说，将把组装线从美国马萨诸塞州搬到中国。通用电气(General Electric Co.)表示，将关闭特拉华州的一个工厂。英国石油公司(BP PLC)旗下的太阳能发电子公司今年春季说，将停止马里兰州的生产，转而依靠中国供应商。
尽管中国的应届工科大学毕业生队伍庞大，外国企业却仍创造并拥有大部分关键技术。位于伦敦的智库英国皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House，又称查塔姆研究所)的研究主管李(Bernice Lee)说，中国在技术上落后了10年左右。该机构曾对可再生能源技术和低碳技术专利持有者进行过研究。
和其他行业一样，中国的低成本制造业可能引发保护主义。暗示未来可能发生争执的一个例子是，纽约州民主党参议员舒默(Charles Schumer)致函美国能源部长，抗议用联邦刺激资金来支持得克萨斯州的15亿美元风力发电项目，除非项目依靠美国制造的涡轮机。
富裕国家的批评人士指责中国通过国家控制的银行提供的低息贷款不公平地为企业提供补贴，还指责中国向海外倾销过剩的供应。
其他人则说，中国的失误可能会伤害所有人的市场。咨询公司Rhodium Group负责人罗森(Daniel Rosen)说，中国目前在通过过剩的供应来拉低可再生能源的价格，就像它在大部分行业的做法一样。他说，问题和危险是，中国现在向市场过度供应的做法是否会损害未来该行业长期的创新和竞争。
在绿色技术方面，中国已经找到了让过剩产能为自己服务的方法。到今年之前，中国太阳能板生产商把几乎全部产品都出口到了德国和西班牙等国；这些国家的政府支持该行业的增长。
随着中国数十家新建多晶硅生产商开工运营，太阳能板价格下跌，今年的形势随之发生变化。在太阳能板原材料的供应突然过剩的同时，来自受到衰退冲击的欧洲企业的订单减少。结果是，多晶硅价格从1月份的峰值下跌了一半。汇丰(HSBC)估计，2010年底前多晶硅价格可能还会再跌20%。
价格的下滑为中国的监管机构带来了机遇。官员们目前正在讨论把太阳能发电目标提高5到10倍，这样中国在2020年前就能拥有比全球现有水平高一倍以上的太阳能发电量。
天合和英利的高管们说，中国太阳能板行业的规模经济程度提高，这将进一步压低价格。英利首席执行长苗连生说，2010年我们有望实现一瓦1美元的价格，这在把太阳能发电价格降到与传统发电水平相当的过程中将是一个里程碑。苗连生是转业军人，在从事太阳能板生产前曾经营过化妆品生意。
澳大利亚新南威尔士大学(University of South Wales)光伏中心负责人格林(Martin Green)说，现在中国制造商们生产太阳能板的成本比欧洲、美国和日本低得多，原因是整个供应链如今都可以在中国获得。该中心是很多在中国太阳能业工作的科学家的培训地。他说，中国使太阳能发电更加便宜，让人们可以负担得起，他们在推出新技术方面也更具冒险精神。
中国企业低成本的制造能力开始吸引美国公用事业公司的注意。华能说，该公司能以比外国竞争对手更低的成本生产气化设备。
北卡罗来纳州杜克能源公司(Duke Energy Corp.)今年8月份与华能签订了一份协议，双方将分享有关清洁碳技术的信息。杜克能源说，在美国建造一座IGCC工厂要8年时间，而在中国只要3年。
Shai Oster
（更新完成）
Xu Shisen put down the phone and smiled. That was Canada calling, explained the chief engineer at a coal-fired power plant set among knockoff antique and art shops in a Beijing suburb. A Canadian company is interested in Mr. Xu's advances in bringing down the cost of stripping out greenhouse-gas emissions from burning coal.
Engineers led by Mr. Xu are working to unlock one of climate change's thorniest problems: how to burn coal without releasing carbon into the atmosphere.
Mr. Xu is part of a broader effort by China to introduce green technology to the world's fastest-growing industrial economy -- a mission so ambitious it could eventually reshape the business, just as China has done for everything from construction cranes to computers.
China looms large over the global climate summit in Copenhagen, where Chinese officials are pressing the U.S. and other rich nations to accept new curbs on their emissions and to continue to subsidize poor nations' efforts to adopt clean-energy technology. China is the world's biggest source of carbon emissions. Less understood is the way China is now becoming a source of some of the solutions.
China's vast market and economies of scale are bringing down the cost of solar and wind energy, as well as other environmentally friendly technologies such as electric car batteries. That could help address a major impediment to wide adoption of such technologies: They need heavy subsidies to be economical.
The so-called China price -- the combination of cheap labor and capital that rewrote the rulebook on manufacturing -- is spreading to green technology. 'The China price will move into the renewable-energy space, specifically for energy that relies on capital-intensive projects,' says Jonathan Woetzel, a director in McKinsey & Co.'s China office.
China's government is backing the trend. It wants to replicate the success of the special economic zones that transformed cities such as Shenzhen from a fishing village near Hong Kong into one of the biggest manufacturing export centers in the world. Set up when China began its economic reforms in the 1980s, the zones were designed to attract foreign investment into light manufacturing to kick-start exports. They became engines of China's economic boom.
Regulators will announce several low carbon centers next year that will have preferential policies to promote low carbon manufacturing and exports.
China's goals face big challenges. China could end up becoming simply a low-cost manufacturing base, not a source of innovation. Worse, its drive to cut costs could stifle innovation overseas.
And Beijing has a long way to go to reducing China's carbon footprint. For each out-of-date power plant it shut down in a two-year cleanup campaign, it added the capacity of roughly two more. Even some of the better power plants are run poorly because company bosses don't want to pay to clean up their emissions.
In the fight against global warming, some of the biggest gains are to be made in scrubbing carbon from coal-burning power plants. China and the U.S. together have 44% of the world's coal reserves, and aren't about to give up on the cheap and reliable source of power. According to U.S. government projections, world coal use could increase nearly 50% by 2030.
'If emissions aren't reduced from power plants, global warming cannot be avoided,' says Jonathan Lewis, a climate specialist at the U.S.-based Clean Air Task Force, which has sought to pair U.S. utilities with Chinese companies. 'The solution can be led by the U.S. and China.'
Capture technology traps carbon dioxide gasses released by coal plants. The gas can be pumped deep underground, typically into salt caverns or aging oil fields. The carbon can be stripped either before or after the coal is burned. Post-combustion capture is simpler and can be retrofitted on existing power plants. Current versions cut energy output by a fifth or more.
Far more complicated is precombustion carbon capture, which involves completely redesigning plants. Coal is turned into a gas, the carbon is stripped out and the rest is burned. Called 'integrated gasification combined cycle' plants, these cost billions of dollars and haven't been developed on a commercial scale yet.
China has a technological lead in turning coal into gas. It has been using the technology widely to make petrochemicals and fertilizers as a substitute for pricier natural gas. Houston-based Future Fuels LLC has licensed gasification technology from China to use in a plant in Pennsylvania.
Critics say current carbon capture technologies are merely a Band-Aid for global warming. That's because they're so inefficient that even more coal has to be burned to produce the same amount of electricity. Also, the technology uses a lot of water and sequestering carbon underground isn't proven.
Still, some analysts estimate carbon capture could account for between 15% to 55% of the world's cumulative carbon emissions reduction by 2100.
Among those leading the ramp-up is Mr. Xu. These days, he is busy with three clean coal projects. One is on the outskirts of Beijing, underneath looming cooling towers of the Gaobeidian Huaneng power plant.
Mr. Xu and colleagues work at a state-run research institute partly owned by China Huaneng Group, China's biggest utility. The state-owned giant produces about 10% of China's electricity, nearly all from coal.
The Beijing project, started before the 2008 Summer Olympics, traps a fraction of the carbon dioxide emitted by the plant, purifying and selling it for use in food packaging and for the fizz in sodas. Using what he's learned in Beijing, Mr. Xu is building another capture facility in Shanghai that will be 30 times bigger.
If Mr. Xu's team can figure out how to bring the costs down -- mostly by recycling energy lost in the process of scrubbing out the carbon -- these units could be retrofitted to coal-fired power plants around the world.
Mr. Xu is also involved in the GreenGen project, a $1 billion power plant led by Huaneng that will turn coal into a gas before burning it. The project is scheduled to go online by 2011. Burning gas is more efficient than burning coal -- meaning less coal is required to make the same amount of electricity. The less coal burned, the less carbon released.
Though carbon capture has moved into the mainstream, it is still at least five to 10 years away from becoming a widespread technology, analysts say.
In the meantime, China is reshaping two of the biggest green technologies in use already -- wind and solar power.
In 2004, foreign firms owned 80% of China's wind-turbine market, according to energy consulting firm IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Now, Chinese companies own three-quarters of the country's market, thanks to companies which make turbines a third cheaper than European competitors.
Chinese wind-turbine makers are starting to export. In October, Shenyang Power Group struck a deal to supply 240 turbines to one of the largest wind-farm projects in the U.S., a 36,000-acre development in Texas.
China already has a 30% share of the global market for photovoltaic solar panels used to generate electricity. Solar-power panel makers, including Suntech Power, Yingli Green Energy and Trina Solar Ltd., export most of their product to Europe and the U.S., contributing to a 30% drop in world solar-power prices.
Chinese competition is forcing rivals to shift production. U.S. Evergreen Solar Inc. said it will move its assembly line from Massachusetts to China. General Electric Co. said it will shut a facility in Delaware. BP PLC's solar unit said this spring it would stop output in Maryland and rely on Chinese suppliers instead.
Yet, despite China's armies of fresh engineering graduates, foreign companies still create and own most of the key technologies. 'China lags about 10 years behind in technology,' says Bernice Lee, a research director at Chatham House, a London-based think tank that analyzed patent holders on renewable and low-carbon technology.
As in other industries, China's cheap manufacturing may spark protectionism. In one hint of battles to come, Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) wrote a letter to the U.S. energy secretary protesting the use of federal stimulus money to support the $1.5 billion wind project in Texas unless it relies on U.S.-built turbines.
Critics in rich countries accuse China of unfairly subsidizing companies via cheap loans from state-controlled banks and dumping excess supply overseas.
Others say China's missteps could hurt the market for all. 'China is making prices cheaper in renewables today, by lunging into oversupply, as it does in most industries,' says Daniel Rosen, principal of consulting firm Rhodium Group. 'The question -- and danger -- is whether by oversupplying the market today China is damaging longer-term innovation and competition in the sector for the future.'
In green technology, China has figured out ways to turn excess capacity to its advantage. Until this year, China's solar-panel makers exported nearly all their output to countries such as Germany and Spain, where government supported growth in the sector.
That changed this year when solar-panel prices fell as dozens of new Chinese polysilicon-makers started operating. The sudden glut in the raw material to make solar panels coincided with a drop in orders from European companies hit by the recession. The result: Polysilicon prices fell by half from January peaks. HSBC estimates they could drop 20% more by the end of 2010.
Softening prices created an opportunity for Chinese regulators. Officials are now talking about raising solar power capacity targets five- or tenfold, so that by 2020 China could have more than double current global solar-power capacity.
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Executives at Trina and Yingli say increased economies of scale from making more panels for China will push costs even lower. 'We could go to $1 a watt by the end of 2010,' which would be a landmark in bringing solar power in parity with conventionally produced electricity, says Yingli's Chief Executive, Miao Liansheng, a veteran of the People's Liberation Army who sold cosmetics before turning to solar panels.
'The Chinese manufacturers can now make [solar panels] a lot cheaper than Europe, the United States and Japan because the whole supply chain is now available in China,' says Martin Green, who runs the photovoltaic center at the University of South Wales in Australia, a training ground for many scientists working in China's solar industry. 'The Chinese are making it more affordable, and they're more adventurous in introducing new technology as well.'
The ability to manufacture cheaply is attracting the notice of U.S. utilities. Huaneng says it can make gasification equipment cheaper than foreign rivals.
Duke Energy Corp., of Charlotte, N.C., signed a pact with Huaneng in August to share information on clean-coal technology. Duke says it would take eight years to build an IGCC plant in the U.S. -- versus three in China.
Shai Oster
Engineers led by Mr. Xu are working to unlock one of climate change's thorniest problems: how to burn coal without releasing carbon into the atmosphere.
Mr. Xu is part of a broader effort by China to introduce green technology to the world's fastest-growing industrial economy -- a mission so ambitious it could eventually reshape the business, just as China has done for everything from construction cranes to computers.
China looms large over the global climate summit in Copenhagen, where Chinese officials are pressing the U.S. and other rich nations to accept new curbs on their emissions and to continue to subsidize poor nations' efforts to adopt clean-energy technology. China is the world's biggest source of carbon emissions. Less understood is the way China is now becoming a source of some of the solutions.
China's vast market and economies of scale are bringing down the cost of solar and wind energy, as well as other environmentally friendly technologies such as electric car batteries. That could help address a major impediment to wide adoption of such technologies: They need heavy subsidies to be economical.
The so-called China price -- the combination of cheap labor and capital that rewrote the rulebook on manufacturing -- is spreading to green technology. 'The China price will move into the renewable-energy space, specifically for energy that relies on capital-intensive projects,' says Jonathan Woetzel, a director in McKinsey & Co.'s China office.
China's government is backing the trend. It wants to replicate the success of the special economic zones that transformed cities such as Shenzhen from a fishing village near Hong Kong into one of the biggest manufacturing export centers in the world. Set up when China began its economic reforms in the 1980s, the zones were designed to attract foreign investment into light manufacturing to kick-start exports. They became engines of China's economic boom.
Regulators will announce several low carbon centers next year that will have preferential policies to promote low carbon manufacturing and exports.
China's goals face big challenges. China could end up becoming simply a low-cost manufacturing base, not a source of innovation. Worse, its drive to cut costs could stifle innovation overseas.
And Beijing has a long way to go to reducing China's carbon footprint. For each out-of-date power plant it shut down in a two-year cleanup campaign, it added the capacity of roughly two more. Even some of the better power plants are run poorly because company bosses don't want to pay to clean up their emissions.
In the fight against global warming, some of the biggest gains are to be made in scrubbing carbon from coal-burning power plants. China and the U.S. together have 44% of the world's coal reserves, and aren't about to give up on the cheap and reliable source of power. According to U.S. government projections, world coal use could increase nearly 50% by 2030.
'If emissions aren't reduced from power plants, global warming cannot be avoided,' says Jonathan Lewis, a climate specialist at the U.S.-based Clean Air Task Force, which has sought to pair U.S. utilities with Chinese companies. 'The solution can be led by the U.S. and China.'
Capture technology traps carbon dioxide gasses released by coal plants. The gas can be pumped deep underground, typically into salt caverns or aging oil fields. The carbon can be stripped either before or after the coal is burned. Post-combustion capture is simpler and can be retrofitted on existing power plants. Current versions cut energy output by a fifth or more.
Far more complicated is precombustion carbon capture, which involves completely redesigning plants. Coal is turned into a gas, the carbon is stripped out and the rest is burned. Called 'integrated gasification combined cycle' plants, these cost billions of dollars and haven't been developed on a commercial scale yet.
China has a technological lead in turning coal into gas. It has been using the technology widely to make petrochemicals and fertilizers as a substitute for pricier natural gas. Houston-based Future Fuels LLC has licensed gasification technology from China to use in a plant in Pennsylvania.
Critics say current carbon capture technologies are merely a Band-Aid for global warming. That's because they're so inefficient that even more coal has to be burned to produce the same amount of electricity. Also, the technology uses a lot of water and sequestering carbon underground isn't proven.
Still, some analysts estimate carbon capture could account for between 15% to 55% of the world's cumulative carbon emissions reduction by 2100.
Among those leading the ramp-up is Mr. Xu. These days, he is busy with three clean coal projects. One is on the outskirts of Beijing, underneath looming cooling towers of the Gaobeidian Huaneng power plant.
Mr. Xu and colleagues work at a state-run research institute partly owned by China Huaneng Group, China's biggest utility. The state-owned giant produces about 10% of China's electricity, nearly all from coal.
The Beijing project, started before the 2008 Summer Olympics, traps a fraction of the carbon dioxide emitted by the plant, purifying and selling it for use in food packaging and for the fizz in sodas. Using what he's learned in Beijing, Mr. Xu is building another capture facility in Shanghai that will be 30 times bigger.
If Mr. Xu's team can figure out how to bring the costs down -- mostly by recycling energy lost in the process of scrubbing out the carbon -- these units could be retrofitted to coal-fired power plants around the world.
Mr. Xu is also involved in the GreenGen project, a $1 billion power plant led by Huaneng that will turn coal into a gas before burning it. The project is scheduled to go online by 2011. Burning gas is more efficient than burning coal -- meaning less coal is required to make the same amount of electricity. The less coal burned, the less carbon released.
Though carbon capture has moved into the mainstream, it is still at least five to 10 years away from becoming a widespread technology, analysts say.
In the meantime, China is reshaping two of the biggest green technologies in use already -- wind and solar power.
In 2004, foreign firms owned 80% of China's wind-turbine market, according to energy consulting firm IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Now, Chinese companies own three-quarters of the country's market, thanks to companies which make turbines a third cheaper than European competitors.
Chinese wind-turbine makers are starting to export. In October, Shenyang Power Group struck a deal to supply 240 turbines to one of the largest wind-farm projects in the U.S., a 36,000-acre development in Texas.
China already has a 30% share of the global market for photovoltaic solar panels used to generate electricity. Solar-power panel makers, including Suntech Power, Yingli Green Energy and Trina Solar Ltd., export most of their product to Europe and the U.S., contributing to a 30% drop in world solar-power prices.
Chinese competition is forcing rivals to shift production. U.S. Evergreen Solar Inc. said it will move its assembly line from Massachusetts to China. General Electric Co. said it will shut a facility in Delaware. BP PLC's solar unit said this spring it would stop output in Maryland and rely on Chinese suppliers instead.
Yet, despite China's armies of fresh engineering graduates, foreign companies still create and own most of the key technologies. 'China lags about 10 years behind in technology,' says Bernice Lee, a research director at Chatham House, a London-based think tank that analyzed patent holders on renewable and low-carbon technology.
As in other industries, China's cheap manufacturing may spark protectionism. In one hint of battles to come, Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) wrote a letter to the U.S. energy secretary protesting the use of federal stimulus money to support the $1.5 billion wind project in Texas unless it relies on U.S.-built turbines.
Critics in rich countries accuse China of unfairly subsidizing companies via cheap loans from state-controlled banks and dumping excess supply overseas.
Others say China's missteps could hurt the market for all. 'China is making prices cheaper in renewables today, by lunging into oversupply, as it does in most industries,' says Daniel Rosen, principal of consulting firm Rhodium Group. 'The question -- and danger -- is whether by oversupplying the market today China is damaging longer-term innovation and competition in the sector for the future.'
In green technology, China has figured out ways to turn excess capacity to its advantage. Until this year, China's solar-panel makers exported nearly all their output to countries such as Germany and Spain, where government supported growth in the sector.
That changed this year when solar-panel prices fell as dozens of new Chinese polysilicon-makers started operating. The sudden glut in the raw material to make solar panels coincided with a drop in orders from European companies hit by the recession. The result: Polysilicon prices fell by half from January peaks. HSBC estimates they could drop 20% more by the end of 2010.
Softening prices created an opportunity for Chinese regulators. Officials are now talking about raising solar power capacity targets five- or tenfold, so that by 2020 China could have more than double current global solar-power capacity.
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Executives at Trina and Yingli say increased economies of scale from making more panels for China will push costs even lower. 'We could go to $1 a watt by the end of 2010,' which would be a landmark in bringing solar power in parity with conventionally produced electricity, says Yingli's Chief Executive, Miao Liansheng, a veteran of the People's Liberation Army who sold cosmetics before turning to solar panels.
'The Chinese manufacturers can now make [solar panels] a lot cheaper than Europe, the United States and Japan because the whole supply chain is now available in China,' says Martin Green, who runs the photovoltaic center at the University of South Wales in Australia, a training ground for many scientists working in China's solar industry. 'The Chinese are making it more affordable, and they're more adventurous in introducing new technology as well.'
The ability to manufacture cheaply is attracting the notice of U.S. utilities. Huaneng says it can make gasification equipment cheaper than foreign rivals.
Duke Energy Corp., of Charlotte, N.C., signed a pact with Huaneng in August to share information on clean-coal technology. Duke says it would take eight years to build an IGCC plant in the U.S. -- versus three in China.
Shai Oster
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