数项分析显示，哥本哈根气候变化峰会上所达成的协议，将不足以避免气候变化达到危险的水平。
原因在于，由于该协议的局限性，各国可以遵循它们在会议召开前所承诺的减排区间的下限。
在国内利益团体的压力下，各国政府甚至可能在自己设定的最后期限（下个月月底）前下调承诺的目标。
斯特恩爵士(Lord Stern)是前世界银行(World Bank)首席经济学家和著名的气候变化分析人士。他牵头的一项研究显示，如果各国能执行减排承诺的上限，那么，全世界将接近达到科学家们估计的必要减排额度。
但如果执行下限，那么，地球的前景可能会凶险得多。
《哥本哈根协议》(Copenhagen accord)法律地位薄弱，在说服各国作出更具雄心的承诺方面，是另一大障碍。由于一些拉美政府的反对，各国根据联合国谈判中的常规，只是“记录”、而非签署该协议。这加大了要求各国坚守承诺的难度。
美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)同样承认这一点。他称赞该协议是“历史上第一次所有主要经济体聚集在一起，接受在气候变化上的责任”。但他补充称：“我们知道，光靠这一进程是不够的。”
“我们必须把我们在哥本哈根确立的势头发扬光大，以确保在今后的日子里，大幅削减碳排放的国际行动是持久而充分的。”
美国已承诺到2020年，将碳排放在2005年的基础上削减17%，但前提条件是国内立法获得批准。欧盟(EU)承诺到2020年，将碳排放在1990年的基础上削减20%。
包括中印在内的大多数发展中国家，只同意抑制碳排放的未来增长。但其中许多国家只承诺了一个区间，而不是一个单一的目标。如果其它国家也同意拿出雄心勃勃的目标，那么欧盟将会提升自己的承诺，将碳排放在1990年的基础上削减30%。中国承诺到2020年，将每单位国内生产总值(GDP)的二氧化碳排放量增长减少40%到45%。
将所有这些区间加总起来，我们可以发现，减排方面存在着巨大的潜在差距。欧洲气候基金会(European Climate Foundation)估计，如果所有国家执行区间上限，到2020年，碳排放将比1990年减少17%。但如果各国坚守下限，那么，削减量将只有3%。
这使得谈判者在下月（截止日期前）有了很大的空间。一位发达国家的谈判代表表示：“接下来还会有许多商讨，尽力劝说各国选择它们的目标上限。”
但皇家国际事务研究所(Royal Institute of International Affairs)能源与环保部研究主任伯尼斯•李(Bernice Lee)表示，目前的兆头不是很好。“在……谈判中，主要谈判方无一走出让自己感到舒适的区域。它们都一直坚守开始时开出的条件。”
译者/董琴
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001030405
The agreement struck at the Copenhagen climate change summit will not be enough to stave off dangerous levels of climate change, according to numerous analyses.
That is because, due to the accord's limited nature, countries can stick to the lower end of the ranges of commitments they made before the conference to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
Under pressure from domestic interests, governments might even seek to reduce their pledges by their self-imposed deadline of the end of next month.
If commitments remain at the upper end of the scale, the world would be within a whisker of meeting scientific estimates of the amount of reductions needed, according to an analysis headed by Lord Stern, the former World Bank chief economist and prominent climate change analyst.
But if they are at the bottom of the scale, the outlook for the planet is likely to be much more ominous.
The Copenhagen accord's weak legal status is another impediment in trying to persuade nations to be more ambitious with their commitments. Because of opposition from a few Latin American governments, countries have agreed within the context of the United Nations negotiations only to “note” the accord, rather than sign up to it. That makes it harder to press countries into stiffening their promises.
Barack Obama, the US president, acknowledged as much. He hailed the pact as “the first time in history all major economies have come together to accept their responsibility” on climate change. But he added: “We know that this progress alone is not enough.”
“We're going to have to build on the momentum that we've established here in Copenhagen to ensure that international action to significantly reduce emissions is sustained and sufficient over time.”
The US has pledged to cut its emissions by 17 per cent by 2020, compared with 2005 levels, but that is conditional on domestic legislation being passed. The European Union has vowed to cut its emissions by 20 per cent, compared with 1990 levels, by the same time.
Most developing countries, including China and India, have agreed only to curb the future growth of their emissions. But many, rather than committing themselves to a single target, have pledged a range. The EU will deepen its promise to 30 per cent below 1990 levels if other countries also agreed ambitious targets. China is committed to reducing the growth in its carbon dioxide output per unit of gross domestic produce by 40 to 45 per cent by 2020.
When all of these ranges are added up, the potential difference in emissions cuts is huge. The European Climate Foundation estimates that if all countries went to the upper end of their ranges, emissions would be reduced by 17 per cent from 1990 levels, by 2020. But if countries stuck to the lower end of their ranges, the cut would be only 3 per cent.
That gives negotiators plenty to play for in the next month. “There will be a lot of discussions going on, trying to persuade countries to go to their upper targets,” said one developed country's negotiator.
But the omens are not good, said Bernice Lee, research director for energy and the environment at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. “None of the major parties moved out of their comfort zones in . . . negotiations. They stuck to their opening offers.”
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