国
际商业组织中国欧盟商会(European Union Chamber of Commerce in China)说，中国刺激计划带来的新增投资可能会压垮全球市场，导致贸易冲突激增，显示出外界日益担心中国政府支持增长所带来的副作用。中国欧盟商会周四在一份报告中说，宽松信贷和其他刺激中国企业扩张的措施加在一起造成钢铁、铝业、水泥和化工等领域新建了很多工厂。该组织说，在全球经济危机期间，工业产能的增加可能会压缩全球的利润率，导致其他国家的强烈反对。
报告说，中国的刺激计划向越来越值得质疑的项目发放大量信贷，几乎可以肯定会增加投资和制造业的直接和间接补贴。中国的增长模式要求欧盟和美国等外部需求能够消化中国的过剩产能；由于发达国家经济复苏乏力，这种可能性越来越小。
中国欧盟商会敦促美国和欧盟帮助中国调整政策，以防止贸易冲突出现破坏性的爆发；目前贸易冲突已经在增加。
如果来自中国企业的竞争更少的话，该组织代表的企业确实能够受益。不过很多分析人士认为，中国大规模扩大工业产能的做法与持续的贸易顺差、高企的全国储蓄率和巨额外汇储备等广泛的经济问题有关。
中国政府也日益专注银行贷款和公共建筑工程项目激增所带来的风险。近几个月来，北京方面宣布对产能过剩行业的新增投资实施限制，监管部门也悄悄行动起来给银行贷款的大幅增长降温。
国务院9月份在一份声明中说，不少领域产能过剩和重复建设问题仍很突出，有的甚至还在加剧。不仅是钢铁和水泥等传统行业在盲目扩张，风电设备和多晶硅等新兴产业也是如此。
举例来讲，尽管钢铁行业去年产能6.6亿吨，已经超过了约5亿吨的国内需求，然而政府估计目前在建的钢铁厂将有5,800万吨的年产能。政府说，水泥的年产能有望达到27亿吨，远远超过预测的16亿吨需求，而甲醇企业的开工率只有40%。
由于中国的快速增长使需求可以很快地赶上供应，长期以来，中国企业都在建设比短期需求还要大的产能。在某一年算过剩产能，在下一年可能就算产能不足了。因此，今年中国经济的复苏鼓励了企业投资不断增长的市场。
比如，随着建筑行业的需求强劲反弹，钢铁生产一再刷新纪录。花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师维格勒沃斯(Thomas Wrigglesworth)说，很多新增钢铁产能实际上是政府在刺激计划推出之前就已经计划好的，目的是用更先进的钢铁厂替代过时的。他说，更令人担心的是，小规模、低效产能的关闭实际上并没有贯彻执行。
地方政府没有关闭小钢铁厂，而是常常鼓励它们扩大产能以增强竞争力。中国欧盟商会的报告指出了若干这样的系统性问题，正是这类问题促使中国继续扩大企业产能。很多经济学家都认为，中国经济过度倾向于投资，同时指出很难说现在看似过剩的产能今后是否是不需要的。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家王庆说，我认为，如果以静止的眼光来看，往往会夸大问题。我们必须看看供需关系中的需求一方。不过中国企业确实拥有大量的存款和宽松信贷，使它们可以迅速进行新的投资。他说，每当一个赚钱的机会出现时，就往往会有大量的资金流入那个领域，而供应的增加会压缩利润率。
Andrew Batson
The new investments funded by China's stimulus plan may swamp world markets and lead to a surge in trade conflicts, an international business group said, in a sign of the rising concerns over the side effects of the government's drive to support growth.
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, in a report released Thursday, said a combination of easy credit and other incentives for Chinese companies to expand has led to the construction of many new factories in areas like steel, aluminum, cement and chemicals. The increase in industrial capacity--at a time of global economic weakness--could drive down profit margins worldwide and lead to a backlash from other countries, the chamber said.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)
'The Chinese stimulus package has poured credit into increasingly questionable projects and will almost certainly increase direct and indirect subsidies to investment and manufacturing,' the report says. 'China's growth model requires that external demand--the European Union and the United States--be able to absorb the overcapacity it produces,' a prospect that is increasingly unlikely given the weak economic recovery in the developed countries.
The chamber urged the U.S. and EU to help China change its policies to prevent a damaging eruption in trade disputes, which are already on the rise.
The chamber of commerce does represent businesses that could benefit if there were less competition from Chinese factories. But many analysts do believe that China's massive expansion of industrial capacity is tied to broader economic problems, like its persistent trade surpluses, high national savings rate and enormous foreign-exchange reserves.
China's government has also increasingly focused on the risks from the boom in bank loans and public-works projects. In recent months Beijing has announced restrictions on new investment on sectors it has identified as having excess capacity, and regulators have quietly moved to cool down the surge in bank lending.
'In many sectors the problems of excess capacity and redundant construction are still very serious, and in some areas they are even worsening,' China's State Council said in a September statement. 'It is not only traditional industries like steel and cement that are blindly expanding, but also new industries like wind-power equipment and polycrystalline silicon.'
For instance, the government estimates that new steel mills capable of producing 58 million metric tons a year are now under construction--even though the industry's annual capacity, at 660 million tons last year, already exceeded domestic demand of around 500 million tons. Cement capacity is on track to reach 2.7 billion tons a year, against forecast demand of 1.6 billion tons, the government says, and methanol plants are operating at just 40% of capacity.
It has long made sense for Chinese companies to build more factory capacity than is immediately needed, since the country's rapid growth allows demand to quickly catch up with supply. What is excess supply in one year may not be enough by the next year. And so the recovery in China's economy this year has encouraged companies to invest in growing markets.
Steel production, for instance, has broken one record after another as demand from construction recovered strongly. And Thomas Wrigglesworth, an analyst at Citigroup, said the government actually planned much of the new steel capacity before the stimulus, in order to replace outdated mills with more modern facilities. 'What's more worrying is that the closure of small and inefficient capacity hasn't really taken place,' he said.
Rather than shutting down small steel producers, local governments often encourage them to expand to become more competitive. The chamber's report identifies a number of such systemic problems that encourage China's continued expansion of factory capacity. Many economists agree the economy has a bias toward investment, while noting that it's difficult to tell whether what looks like excess capacity now will turn out to be unneeded in the future.
'I think if one takes a static view, one tends to exaggerate the underlying problem. One has look at the demand side of the equation,' said Wang Qing, an economist for Morgan Stanley. But Chinese companies do have large savings and easy credit, enabling them to quickly pile into new investments. 'Whenever a profitable opportunity arises, there tends to be tons of money flowing into that sector, and increased supply results in compressed margins,' he said.
Andrew Batson
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, in a report released Thursday, said a combination of easy credit and other incentives for Chinese companies to expand has led to the construction of many new factories in areas like steel, aluminum, cement and chemicals. The increase in industrial capacity--at a time of global economic weakness--could drive down profit margins worldwide and lead to a backlash from other countries, the chamber said.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)
'The Chinese stimulus package has poured credit into increasingly questionable projects and will almost certainly increase direct and indirect subsidies to investment and manufacturing,' the report says. 'China's growth model requires that external demand--the European Union and the United States--be able to absorb the overcapacity it produces,' a prospect that is increasingly unlikely given the weak economic recovery in the developed countries.
The chamber urged the U.S. and EU to help China change its policies to prevent a damaging eruption in trade disputes, which are already on the rise.
The chamber of commerce does represent businesses that could benefit if there were less competition from Chinese factories. But many analysts do believe that China's massive expansion of industrial capacity is tied to broader economic problems, like its persistent trade surpluses, high national savings rate and enormous foreign-exchange reserves.
China's government has also increasingly focused on the risks from the boom in bank loans and public-works projects. In recent months Beijing has announced restrictions on new investment on sectors it has identified as having excess capacity, and regulators have quietly moved to cool down the surge in bank lending.
'In many sectors the problems of excess capacity and redundant construction are still very serious, and in some areas they are even worsening,' China's State Council said in a September statement. 'It is not only traditional industries like steel and cement that are blindly expanding, but also new industries like wind-power equipment and polycrystalline silicon.'
For instance, the government estimates that new steel mills capable of producing 58 million metric tons a year are now under construction--even though the industry's annual capacity, at 660 million tons last year, already exceeded domestic demand of around 500 million tons. Cement capacity is on track to reach 2.7 billion tons a year, against forecast demand of 1.6 billion tons, the government says, and methanol plants are operating at just 40% of capacity.
It has long made sense for Chinese companies to build more factory capacity than is immediately needed, since the country's rapid growth allows demand to quickly catch up with supply. What is excess supply in one year may not be enough by the next year. And so the recovery in China's economy this year has encouraged companies to invest in growing markets.
Steel production, for instance, has broken one record after another as demand from construction recovered strongly. And Thomas Wrigglesworth, an analyst at Citigroup, said the government actually planned much of the new steel capacity before the stimulus, in order to replace outdated mills with more modern facilities. 'What's more worrying is that the closure of small and inefficient capacity hasn't really taken place,' he said.
Rather than shutting down small steel producers, local governments often encourage them to expand to become more competitive. The chamber's report identifies a number of such systemic problems that encourage China's continued expansion of factory capacity. Many economists agree the economy has a bias toward investment, while noting that it's difficult to tell whether what looks like excess capacity now will turn out to be unneeded in the future.
'I think if one takes a static view, one tends to exaggerate the underlying problem. One has look at the demand side of the equation,' said Wang Qing, an economist for Morgan Stanley. But Chinese companies do have large savings and easy credit, enabling them to quickly pile into new investments. 'Whenever a profitable opportunity arises, there tends to be tons of money flowing into that sector, and increased supply results in compressed margins,' he said.
Andrew Batson
没有评论:
发表评论