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国最大地产开发商万科企业股份有限公司董事长王石警告说，中国一些最大城市的房地产泡沫可能扩散到中国其他地区，可能会给市场造成破坏性后果。
万科公司董事长王石近日接受了《华尔街日报》的独家采访。他分析了近年来中国房地产市场的发展情况以及金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响。他认为，目前诸如北京、上海等一线城市的房价肯定存在泡沫。从全国整体来看，泡沫特征还不明显。但如果泡沫向二线、三线城市扩散，情况将十分令人担忧……
王石说，受此影响，中国房地产价格今年出现回升，虽然目前大多数中国城市今年的房价涨幅还不是很大，但在北京、上海和深圳等城市，房价飙升程度令人惊讶。
王石说，就全国而言，情况还没有发展成为一场房地产泡沫。但就单独城市，以及一些主要城市来说，泡沫是显然存在的。这点毫无疑问，我对此非常担心。王石说，他担心这种势头可能会波及二线城市，这样一来其性质就会类似日本历时十年、于上世纪九十年代初破灭的房地产泡沫。25年前，王石创立了万科，如今已将其打造成中国房地产市场最大的开发商。中国是全球增长最快的房地产市场之一。
房地产市场是中国经济今年最为强劲的组成部分之一，目前关于中国房地产市场上投机活动新危险的争论不断升温，而王石这番话是其中最具警戒意味的。
今年前10个月中国售出的住房总面积较上年同期增长了50%。整体房价涨幅相对温和，今年前10个月累计上涨了4%左右。但在一些城市，房价涨幅明显较快：中国国家发展和改革委员会的数据显示，杭州房价同期上涨了6.6%，深圳房价飙升了13.8%。
市场担心失控的投机活动可能会引发一个长期的需求停滞时期，重创房地产和建筑行业，抽去中国经济的一根主心骨。短期而言，地产开发商因为土地价格飙升而导致未来利润面临压力。王石没有具体谈到这个问题，但其他中国开发商警告说，一些城市的土地价格已经急剧上涨，如果不大幅提高未来的房屋售价，就很难从未来的开发项目中赚钱。
中国房地产市场去年陷入了低谷。在房屋销量和房价飙升数年之后，中国政府2007年开始对房地产行业的销售和贷款实施限制。就全国而言，中国房价在2008年7月见顶，去年10月中国住宅销量同比下滑了17%。负债累累的开发商资金日渐紧张。
2008年11月，随着全球金融危机加剧，中国政府宣布了人民币4万亿元（约合5,850亿美元）的经济刺激计划，并开始激励银行增加放贷。这导致中国银行业新增贷款激增──其中很大一部分流入了房地产行业──市场人气也因此急剧回升。今年3月，房屋均价再次开始出现月度环比上涨。
Jerome Favre/Bloomberg News
万科企业股份有限公司董事长王石
万科是中国经济复苏的一个主要受益者，王石大体上也赞同中国政府的刺激措施。王石说，万科在中国30多个城市拥有业务，公司今年早些时候预计今年房地产销售总额将不到人民币550亿元。但他现在预计，今年房地产销售总额实际上将突破人民币600亿元，明年将达到人民币800亿元。今年前9个月万科收入同比增长32%，至人民币279.9亿元，同期净利润同比增长30%，至人民币29.6亿元。
王石没有对化解潜在资产泡沫提出具体的政策对策。中国政府经常对在政治上相当敏感的房地产相关政策进行调整，分析人士目前正在争论政府是否即将出台新措施。
今年58岁的王石说，总的来说，他对中国经济前景持谨慎乐观态度。但他对明年资产价格因为巨额刺激计划而持续暴涨的前景表示担忧，认为这种情况可能会很难挽回。王石说，这种货币扩张已经进入了固定资产投资和基础设施领域，这可不是说喊停就能停的。
Jason Dean
The head of China's biggest property developer warned that real-estate bubbles in some of China's biggest cities could spread elsewhere in the country, with potentially damaging consequences for the market.
In an interview, Wang Shi, chairman of China Vanke Co., said government stimulus measures enacted a year ago to keep China's economy from being sucked into the global recession have helped to cause a fundamental turnaround in a property market that was severely ailing before the global financial crisis hit.
While the resulting price rises this year haven't been excessive so far in most Chinese cities, Mr. Wang said, the increases in places like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have been surprisingly sharp.
Nationwide, 'things haven't risen to a property bubble yet,' said Mr. Wang, who founded his company 25 years ago and has built it into the biggest housing developer in one of the world's fastest-growing housing markets. But 'in individual cities, and in some of the main cities, there is clearly a bubble. There's no doubt about that . . . I'm very concerned.' Mr. Wang said he fears the trend could 'infect second-tier cities, which would be similar to the nature of the Japanese bubble decade' that imploded in the early 1990s.
Mr. Wang's remarks are some of the strongest cautionary statements in a growing debate about renewed dangers of speculation in the property market, which has been one of the most robust components of China's economy this year.
The total floor space of housing sold in the first 10 months of this year rose 50% from the 2008 period. House prices overall have risen at a relatively moderate pace -- up about 4% in the year through October. But in some cities, the growth has been considerably faster: Prices in Hangzhou, near Shanghai, rose 6.6% in the period, and in Shenzhen, the southern manufacturing boomtown, they soared 13.8%, according to China's National Development and Reform Commission.
China doesn't have some of the systemic flaws that led to the nationwide housing collapse that devastated the U.S. and Europe and triggered the global recession. Securitization of home loans is almost nonexistent in China, and buyers are limited to borrowing 70% of the price of their houses -- less for second properties -- precluding the kind of zero-down-payment mortgages that characterized the U.S. housing bubble. Many analysts say there is still substantial need for new housing in China, as growing urban populations become more prosperous.
The worry is that runaway speculation could fizzle into an extended period of stagnant demand, damaging the real-estate and construction industries and sapping a pillar of China's economic strength. In the shorter term, property developers face pressure on future profits from surging prices for land. Mr. Wang didn't address that specifically, but other Chinese developers have warned that land prices in some cities have already risen so far that it will be hard to make money on future developments without improbably large increases in future sales prices.
China's property market was in the doldrums last year. After years of soaring property sales and rising prices, the government in 2007 began imposing restriction on sales and lending in the industry. Nationwide, house prices peaked in July 2008, and by October the volume of residential property sales was down 17% from a year ago. Debt-laden developers were increasingly strapped for cash.
In November 2008, with the global financial crisis deepening, China's government announced a four-trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic-stimulus package, and began prodding banks to lend more. That led to soaring loans -- much of which went into property -- and a sharp reversal in sentiment. By March, average house prices began rising again on a monthly basis.
'If the financial tsunami hadn't occurred, and China's macroeconomic controls had continued, a third of the property developers in China would have fallen into serious difficulties,' Mr. Wang said.
Vanke has been a major beneficiary of the economic recovery, and Mr. Wang overall applauded the government's stimulus efforts. The company, which has operations in more than 30 Chinese cities, had early in the year been expecting the value of its property sales this year to total less than 55 billion yuan, Mr. Wang said. But he estimated that that it will actually surpass 60 billion yuan this year, and reach 80 billion yuan next year. Vanke's revenue in the year's first nine months grew 32% to 27.99 billion yuan, while net profit rose 30% to 2.96 billion yuan.
Mr. Wang offered no specific policy prescriptions for addressing the potential bubbles. Beijing often adjusts policy related to its politically sensitive property market, and analysts are debating whether new measures might be in the offing.
The 58-year-old said he is, overall, 'cautiously optimistic' about China's economic outlook. But he expressed concern about the prospect of continued inflation in asset prices next year because of the massive stimulus, which he said could prove hard to reel back in. 'This kind of monetary expansion, which goes into fixed-asset investment, into infrastructure -- you can't just stop it by saying stop,' he said.
Jason Dean
In an interview, Wang Shi, chairman of China Vanke Co., said government stimulus measures enacted a year ago to keep China's economy from being sucked into the global recession have helped to cause a fundamental turnaround in a property market that was severely ailing before the global financial crisis hit.
While the resulting price rises this year haven't been excessive so far in most Chinese cities, Mr. Wang said, the increases in places like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have been surprisingly sharp.
Nationwide, 'things haven't risen to a property bubble yet,' said Mr. Wang, who founded his company 25 years ago and has built it into the biggest housing developer in one of the world's fastest-growing housing markets. But 'in individual cities, and in some of the main cities, there is clearly a bubble. There's no doubt about that . . . I'm very concerned.' Mr. Wang said he fears the trend could 'infect second-tier cities, which would be similar to the nature of the Japanese bubble decade' that imploded in the early 1990s.
Mr. Wang's remarks are some of the strongest cautionary statements in a growing debate about renewed dangers of speculation in the property market, which has been one of the most robust components of China's economy this year.
The total floor space of housing sold in the first 10 months of this year rose 50% from the 2008 period. House prices overall have risen at a relatively moderate pace -- up about 4% in the year through October. But in some cities, the growth has been considerably faster: Prices in Hangzhou, near Shanghai, rose 6.6% in the period, and in Shenzhen, the southern manufacturing boomtown, they soared 13.8%, according to China's National Development and Reform Commission.
China doesn't have some of the systemic flaws that led to the nationwide housing collapse that devastated the U.S. and Europe and triggered the global recession. Securitization of home loans is almost nonexistent in China, and buyers are limited to borrowing 70% of the price of their houses -- less for second properties -- precluding the kind of zero-down-payment mortgages that characterized the U.S. housing bubble. Many analysts say there is still substantial need for new housing in China, as growing urban populations become more prosperous.
The worry is that runaway speculation could fizzle into an extended period of stagnant demand, damaging the real-estate and construction industries and sapping a pillar of China's economic strength. In the shorter term, property developers face pressure on future profits from surging prices for land. Mr. Wang didn't address that specifically, but other Chinese developers have warned that land prices in some cities have already risen so far that it will be hard to make money on future developments without improbably large increases in future sales prices.
China's property market was in the doldrums last year. After years of soaring property sales and rising prices, the government in 2007 began imposing restriction on sales and lending in the industry. Nationwide, house prices peaked in July 2008, and by October the volume of residential property sales was down 17% from a year ago. Debt-laden developers were increasingly strapped for cash.
In November 2008, with the global financial crisis deepening, China's government announced a four-trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic-stimulus package, and began prodding banks to lend more. That led to soaring loans -- much of which went into property -- and a sharp reversal in sentiment. By March, average house prices began rising again on a monthly basis.
'If the financial tsunami hadn't occurred, and China's macroeconomic controls had continued, a third of the property developers in China would have fallen into serious difficulties,' Mr. Wang said.
Vanke has been a major beneficiary of the economic recovery, and Mr. Wang overall applauded the government's stimulus efforts. The company, which has operations in more than 30 Chinese cities, had early in the year been expecting the value of its property sales this year to total less than 55 billion yuan, Mr. Wang said. But he estimated that that it will actually surpass 60 billion yuan this year, and reach 80 billion yuan next year. Vanke's revenue in the year's first nine months grew 32% to 27.99 billion yuan, while net profit rose 30% to 2.96 billion yuan.
Mr. Wang offered no specific policy prescriptions for addressing the potential bubbles. Beijing often adjusts policy related to its politically sensitive property market, and analysts are debating whether new measures might be in the offing.
The 58-year-old said he is, overall, 'cautiously optimistic' about China's economic outlook. But he expressed concern about the prospect of continued inflation in asset prices next year because of the massive stimulus, which he said could prove hard to reel back in. 'This kind of monetary expansion, which goes into fixed-asset investment, into infrastructure -- you can't just stop it by saying stop,' he said.
Jason Dean
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