苏
联解体一年后，极度缺钱的克里姆林宫开始向中国销售其庞大的军武库，包括俄罗斯联邦空军的骄傲──苏霍伊-27战斗机。此后15年，俄罗斯一直是中国最大的武器提供商，为中国提供了价值200亿至300亿美元的战斗机、驱逐舰、潜艇、坦克和导弹等。除此之外，俄罗斯甚至还向北京方面出售了利用俄罗斯进口备件生产苏-27战斗机的许可证。
Associated Press
中国战斗机飞过西藏上空。
数十年来中国一直从俄罗斯进口武器并对这些武器进行"反向开发"，现在中国已到了一个量变引起质量的临界点，即自行研制很多先进武器，包括苏-27战斗机等高科技歼击机。另外，中国还有可能建造航空母舰。
中国工程师不光"克隆"出苏-27宝贵的航空电子设备和雷达，他们还在这个战斗机上安装了最后一个零件：中国产喷气式引擎。
过去两年，中国没有向俄罗斯下任何大的武器订单。
如今，中国开始出口很多自己研制的武器，以低于俄罗斯的价格卖给发展中国家，这或许会改变世界上几个可能发生冲突的地区的军事平衡。
这可谓是一个划时代的转折，今年11月中国珠海航展俄罗斯馆就感受到了这一点。过去珠海航展上的明星非俄罗斯莫属，不仅"俄罗斯勇士"(Russian Knights)特技飞行队让观众连连喝彩，俄罗斯还借机展示其战斗机、直升机和运输机，并在航展上签订好几百亿美元的交易。
但今年珠海航展上，俄罗斯没有带来一架真飞机，只展示了几个为数不多的塑料微缩模型，以及"照料"这些模型的几十个百无聊赖的销售人员。
与之相反，中国在本次航展上推出了最大规模的军事技术商业展示，而几乎所有机型都是基于俄罗斯的专有技术制造的。
巴基斯坦的"雄狮"(Sherdils)表演队成为了本次航展的明星，他们驾驶的战斗机其基本技术都源自俄罗斯，但现在为巴基斯坦和中国共同制造。
俄罗斯国防部公众咨询委员会(Public Advisory Council)的Ruslan Pukhov说，我们以前是中国的高级合作伙伴，现在成了小伙伴了。该委员会是向俄罗斯军方提供民用咨询的一个机构。
俄罗斯的尴尬反映了很多外国企业的困境。中国以其先进的火车、发电设备以及其它民用产品开始在全球市场展开竞争，而这些产品都是在获得西方技术的基础上研制出来的。
不过具体到中国的武器发展这一事件中，还涉及一个安全因素。中国正在发展武器系统，包括航母和航载战斗机，这可能会威胁到台湾并考验美国对西太平洋的控制权。
中国出口战斗机和其它先进武器还有可能改变南亚、苏丹和伊朗的军事平衡。
中国的军事力量现在仍远远落后于美国，后者是目前世界上最大的武器制造大国和出口大国。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)数据显示，2005年至2009年间，中国转让的武器占全球武器转让总量的2%，是世界上第九大武器出口国。
然而自1945年日本战败后，亚洲其它国家从未寻求展示自己的军事力量，其本身也没有展示这种能力。
中国迅速掌握了俄罗斯的军事技术，这让人开始质疑美国与中国在民用名义下的武器制造商的合作。
中国航空工业集团公司(Aviation Industry Corp.)是中国一国有航空公司，负责建造战斗机等，但同时也在通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)和其它美国航空公司的帮助下建造新的喷气式客机。通用电气一位高管说，其公司数十年来与多个外国引擎制造商进行合作，合作双方有详尽的保护措施，这些措施维护了通用电气的知识产权。
中国的军事技术对美国的武器计划也有多重含义。去年美国五角大楼决定削减投入F-22的资金，其原因之一是中国至少在15年内不会拥有很多与之类似的飞机。F-22是目前世界上投入使用的最先进的战斗机。
但中国空军副司令员何为荣却宣布说，中国版的此类战斗机马上进入试飞阶段，将在"八至十年内"投入使用。
美国国防情报局（Defense Intelligence Agency）说，布署大量隐形战斗机，中国要花大约10年时间。
与此同时，对于俄罗斯和中国来说，关于这些武器的知识产权纠纷考验着他们克服长久以来的历史敌对局面、建立友好新时代的种种努力。
俄罗斯国防部一位官员说，过去我们对于自己的知识产权没有给予足够的关注，但目前中国甚至在国际市场上与我们展开竞争。
没有什么比J-11B能更清楚地说明这一问题的了，俄罗斯官员断言说，这一中国战斗机是直接模仿苏-27而来，这是苏联在上世纪70和80年代开发的一种单座战斗机，可以与美国F-15和F-16相抗衡。
1956年苏联和中国出现意识形态分歧，1969年出现过短暂的边境冲突。自1956年至上世纪90年代初，俄罗斯没有向中国提供过大型武器。
但在苏联解体后，俄罗斯急需硬通货。1992年中国成为前独联体以外第一个购买苏-27的国家，中国共为24架飞机支付了10亿美元。
这一交易对中国来说是意外的成功，中国自此将军事重点从俄罗斯可能在陆地上的入侵，变成了现在的防范对台湾、部分南海和东海的领土要求。
1989年后，美国和欧盟对中国进行了武器禁运，使中国希望升级其空军和海军的努力受到压制。
西方军事官员说，在第一次海湾战争中美国展示了强大的武力实力，使中国领导人大吃一惊，自此中国军队现代化进程变得更加紧迫了。
中国政府1996年打破了僵局，当时中国向俄罗斯支付25亿美元，获得在沈阳飞机工业（集团）有限公司再组装200架苏-27的授权许可。
这一协议规定，飞机将包括进口的俄罗斯航空电子设备、雷达和引擎，而且不能出口。该飞机被称为歼-11。
据俄罗斯官员和防务专家说，在组装完105架飞机后，2004年中国突然取消了该合同，宣称这些飞机已不能满足其需求。
三年后，俄罗斯的担心被证实了，中国在国有电视台上播出，中国推出了自己的喷气战斗机──歼-11B。
来自俄罗斯的中国军事专家卡申（Vassily Kashin）说，当生产许可被出售的时候，人们都知道他们将会这样做，那是在冒险，但在那时候这是事关生存的问题。
歼-11B看上去与苏-27几乎一模一样，但中国说90%是自主研发的，包括更先进的中国航空电子设备和雷达。中国说，只有引擎是俄罗斯的。
中国航空工业集团公司副总经理张新国说，目前这种飞机装上了中国的引擎。沈阳飞机工业（集团）有限公司是中国航空工业集团公司旗下企业。
张新国说，你不能说这仅仅是模仿，手机看起来都很像，但技术发展得非常快。即使看起来一样，里面的东西也不会完全相同。
J-11B对俄罗斯来说意味着严峻的选择，是冒着让他们模仿的风险，继续卖给中国武器？还是停止出售，错失这一利润丰厚的市场？
俄罗斯起初的反应是暂停关于向中国出售苏-33的谈判；这是一种可以用于航空母舰的可折翼飞机。
然而，俄罗斯之后重启了关于苏-33的谈判，不过俄罗斯拒绝了中国仅购买两架飞机的订单，坚持要求更大的订单。
苏霍伊航空控股公司（Sukhoi Aviation Holding Co.）目前的官方立场是，对于在中国做生意仍然有信心。
实际上，许多航空专家认为中国航空工业集团公司在自主研发歼-11B引擎时，像原来的俄罗斯飞机一样，在推动力和耐久性方面遇到了问题。
苏霍伊公司认为，中国将不得不依据俄罗斯制定的条款购买苏-33，因为中国可能赶不及在2011或2012年推出首个航空母舰前自主研发航母使用的类似机型。
该公司还预计，如果歼-11B表现不够好，该公司将向中国出售苏-35，这是在苏-27基础上研发的更先进的飞机。
苏霍伊公司副总经理谢尔盖耶夫（Sergey Sergeev）说，我们只是希望我们的飞机会更好，生产一个质量很好的仿制勺子是一件事，但仿制一架飞机就是另一回事了。
俄罗斯和中国政府均拒绝发表评论。
但俄罗斯官员私下说，他们担心中国即将在不需要俄罗斯帮助的情况下，开始大规模生产和出口先进战机。中国2001年到2008年从俄罗斯购买了价值160亿美元的武器，在俄罗斯武器出口总额中占据40%。
一些照片最近在中国军事网站发布，显示的疑为歼-11B和改良版歼-15（用于航空母舰）装备的发动机。
据俄罗斯防务专家说，这让俄罗斯人更有理由担心，中国将2001年从乌克兰购买的一架苏-33样机进行了反向研究。
中国去年在迪拜航展(Dubai Air Show)首次展出L-15教练机。今年6月，中国首次参加法国举行的Eurosatory防务展览。
7月份，中国与巴基斯坦联合研制的枭龙（JF-17）战机亮相英国范堡罗国际航展(Farnborough International Airshow)，这是它第一次在海外展出。
9月份南非开普敦举办的一次武器展览上，中国也建了一座规模居前的展馆。
斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所武器贸易专家韦泽曼(Siemon T. Wezeman)说，他们在以前从未参加过的武器展览上频频亮相；15年前他们真的是什么都没有，而现在他们却在以不贵的价格出售不错的技术。
发展中国家对中国很感兴趣，特别是向这些国家出售相对便宜、装备俄罗斯发动机的枭龙战机的兴趣。
克林姆林宫曾允许中国向巴基斯坦转售这款发动机，因为它在巴基斯坦没做武器生意。
但据知情人士说，去年阿塞拜疆（前苏联加盟共和国）开始谈判购买枭龙战机一事时，俄罗斯怒火中烧。
同样在去年，中国枭龙战机和俄罗斯米格-29战机同时在缅甸竞标。缅甸最后选择米格，但支付的价格没有达到俄罗斯人原来的期望。
今年两国都加入了埃及一份订单的竞标。中国提出以1,000万美元的价格出售枭龙，俄罗斯提出以3,000万美元的价格出售米格-29。
于是苏霍伊公司和米格生产商负责人波戈相(Mikhail Pogosyan)建议克里姆林宫，不要再向中国出售枭龙战机所用俄罗斯发动机。
克里姆林宫尚未停止这款发动机的出售，但曾有俄罗斯官员私下建议，如果中国继续出口歼-11B等先进战机，就要对中国采取法律行动。
上个月，俄罗斯政府提议通过新的立法，在对外军售协议中加上知识产权条款。
知情人士说，这个问题是10月份俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)访华期间提出来的。
俄罗斯国防部公众咨询委员会的Pukhov说，当然我们感到担心，但我们也认识到能够做的不多。
苏霍伊的谢尔盖耶夫被问到将给西方航空航天公司做何建议时说，它们应当记住自己出售的是什么产品，是民用还是军民两用；最重要的是要非常仔细地制作合同文件。
俄罗斯担心的是知识产权，其他国家担心的则是安全。中国二三十年前启动的武器研发项目已在开花结果，这对于地区和全球军力平衡都具有不可忽视的潜在影响。
预计歼-11B将被中国海军用为一线战机，可以在整个东海和南海地区持续作战。
航空母舰和歼-15战机将进一步增强中国海军阻止美国干预台海冲突的能力，并考验美国对西太平洋地区的控制力。
中国的武器出口可能会给全球冲突地区产生后果。巴基斯坦在今年2月份为其第一支中队装备中国造战斗机，或将改变它与印度之间的军力平衡。
中国枭龙战机的其他潜在买家包括斯里兰卡、孟加拉、委内瑞拉、尼日利亚、摩洛哥和土尔其。中国过去还曾向苏丹出售战斗机。
美国最担心的潜在买家是伊朗。据俄罗斯全球武器贸易分析中心(Centre for Analysis of the Global Arms Trade)数据，伊朗2002年到2009年从中国购买了价值约2.6亿美元的武器。
中国今年6月支持联合国对伊朗实施制裁，其中包括扩大武器禁运的措施，但德黑兰方面仍在谋求从中国购买战斗机等武器。
Jeremy Page
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
A year after the collapse of the Soviet Union, a cash-strapped Kremlin began selling China a chunk of its vast military arsenal, including the pride of the Russian air force, the Sukhoi-27 fighter jet.
For the next 15 years, Russia was China's biggest arms supplier, providing $20 billion to $30 billion of fighters, destroyers, submarines, tanks and missiles. It even sold Beijing a license to make the Su-27 fighter jet -- with imported Russian parts.
Today, Russia's military bonanza is over, and China's is just beginning.
After decades of importing and reverse-engineering Russian arms, China has reached a tipping point: It now can produce many of its own advanced weapons -- including high-tech fighter jets like the Su-27 -- and is on the verge of building an aircraft carrier.
Not only have Chinese engineers cloned the prized Su-27's avionics and radar but they are fitting it with the last piece in the technological puzzle, a Chinese jet engine.
In the past two years, Beijing hasn't placed a major order from Moscow.
Now, China is starting to export much of this weaponry, undercutting Russia in the developing world, and potentially altering the military balance in several of the world's flash points.
This epochal turnaround was palpable in the Russian pavilion at November's Airshow China in the southern city of Zhuhai. Russia used to be the star of this show, wowing visitors with its 'Russian Knights' aerobatic team, showing off fighters, helicopters and cargo planes, and sealing multibillion dollar deals on the sidelines.
This year, it didn't bring a single real aircraft -- only a handful of plastic miniatures, tended by a few dozen bored sales staff.
China, by contrast, laid on its biggest commercial display of military technology -- almost all based on Russian know-how.
The star guests were the 'Sherdils,' a Pakistani aerobatic team flying fighter jets that are Russian in origin but are now being produced by Pakistan and China.
'We used to be the senior partner in this relationship -- now we're the junior one,' said Ruslan Pukhov, of the Russian Defense Ministry's Public Advisory Council, a civilian advisory body to the military.
Russia's predicament mirrors that of many foreign companies as China starts to compete in global markets with advanced trains, power-generating equipment and other civilian products based on technology obtained from the West.
In this case, there is an additional security dimension, however: China is developing weapons systems, including aircraft carriers and carrier-based fighters, that could threaten Taiwan and test U.S. control of the Western Pacific.
Chinese exports of fighters and other advanced weapons also threaten to alter the military balance in South Asia, Sudan and Iran.
China's military muscle still lags far behind that of the U.S., by far the world's largest weapons manufacturer and exporter. China accounted for 2% of global arms transfers between 2005-2009, putting it in ninth place among exporters, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
But no other Asian country has sought to project military power -- and had the indigenous capability to do so -- since Japan's defeat in 1945.
China's rapid mastery of Russian technology raises questions about U.S. cooperation with the civilian faces of Chinese arms makers.
The Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC), China's state aerospace company, builds fighters, for instance. But it is also making a new passenger jet with help from General Electric Co. and other U.S. aerospace companies. A GE official says the company has partnered with foreign engine manufacturers for decades 'with elaborate protections built in place' that have preserved the company's intellectual property.
There are also implications for U.S. weapons programs. Last year the Pentagon decided to cut funding for the F-22 -- currently the most advanced fighter deployed in the world -- partly on the grounds that China wouldn't have many similar aircraft for at least 15 years.
But then Gen. He Weirong, deputy head of China's Air Force, announced that Chinese versions of such jets were about to undergo test flights, and would be deployed in 'eight or 10 years.'
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.The Defense Intelligence Agency now says it will take China 'about 10 years' to deploy stealth fighters in 'meaningful numbers.'
For Moscow and Beijing, meanwhile, a dispute over the intellectual-property rights to such weaponry is testing their efforts to overcome a long historical rivalry and build a new era of friendly ties.
'We didn't pay enough attention to our intellectual property in the past,' said a Russian defense official. 'Now China is even competing with us on the international market.'
Few things illustrate this more clearly than the J-11B, a Chinese fighter that Russian officials allege is a direct copy of the Su-27, a one-seat fighter that was developed by the Soviets through the 1970s and 1980s as a match for the U.S. F-15 and F-16.
Before the early 1990s, Moscow hadn't provided major arms to Beijing since an ideological split in 1956, which led to a brief border clash in 1969.
But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin was desperate for hard currency. In 1992, China became the first country outside the former Soviet Union to buy the Su-27, paying $1 billion for 24.
The deal was a coup for China, which had shifted its military focus away from a potential Soviet land invasion, and now wanted to defend territorial claims over Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea and East China Sea.
Efforts to upgrade its air and naval forces had been hampered by U.S. and European Union arms embargoes imposed after the 1989 crackdown on protesters around Tiananmen Square.
China's military modernization program grew more urgent after its leaders were stunned by the display of U.S. firepower during the first Gulf War, Western military officials say.
Beijing's breakthrough came in 1996, when it paid Russia $2.5 billion for a license to assemble another 200 Su-27s at the Shenyang Aircraft Company.
The agreement stipulated that the aircraft -- to be called the J-11 -- would include imported Russian avionics, radars and engines and couldn't be exported.
But after building 105, China abruptly canceled the contract in 2004, claiming the aircraft no longer met its requirements, according to Russian officials and defense experts.
Three years later, Russia's fears were confirmed when China unveiled its own version of the fighter jet -- the J-11B -- on state television.
'When the license was sold, everyone knew they would do this. It was just a risk that was taken,' said Vassily Kashin, a Russian expert on the Chinese military. 'At that time it was a question of survival.'
The J-11B looked almost identical to the Su-27, but China said it was 90% indigenous and included more advanced Chinese avionics and radars. Only the engine was still Russian, China said.
Now it is being fitted with a Chinese engine as well, according to Zhang Xinguo, deputy president of AVIC, which includes Shenyang Aircraft.
'You cannot say it's just a copy,' he said. 'Mobile phones all look similar. But technology is developing very quickly. Even if it looks the same, everything inside cannot be the same.'
The J-11B presented Russia with a stark choice -- to continue selling China weapons, and risk having them cloned, too, or to stop, and miss out on its still lucrative market.
Russia's initial response was to suspend talks on selling China the Su-33, a fighter with folding wings that can be used on aircraft carriers.
Since then, however, it has re-opened negotiations on the Su-33, although it rejected China's offer to buy just two, and insisted on a larger order.
Sukhoi Aviation Holding Co.'s official position now is that it remains confident about its business in China.
Indeed, many aviation experts believe AVIC is having problems developing an indigenous engine for the J-11B with the same thrust and durability as the original Russian ones.
Sukhoi is betting that China will have to buy the Su-33 on Russian terms as Beijing will struggle to develop its own carrier-based fighter in time for the planned launch of its first carriers in 2011 or 2012.
The company also hopes to sell China the Su-35 -- a more advanced version of the Su-27 -- if the J-11B doesn't perform well enough.
'We're just hoping our aircraft will be better,' said Sergey Sergeev, deputy director general of Sukhoi. 'It's one thing to make a good quality copy of a spoon, but quite another to make one of an aircraft.'
The Russian and Chinese governments both declined to comment.
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.In private, however, Russian officials say they worry that China is about to start mass producing and exporting advanced fighters -- without Russian help. China bought $16 billion worth of Russian arms between 2001 and 2008 -- 40% of Russia's sales.
Photographs published recently on Chinese military websites appear to show engines fitted on the J-11B and a modified version -- called the J-15 -- for use on aircraft carriers.
That has compounded Russian fears that China has reverse engineered an Su-33 prototype it acquired in 2001 from Ukraine, according to Russian defense experts.
At last year's Dubai Air Show, China demonstrated its L-15 trainer jet for the first time. In June, China made its debut at the Eurosatory arms fair in France.
In July, China demonstrated the JF-17 -- the fighter developed with Pakistan -- for the first time overseas at the Farnborough Airshow in Britain.
China also had one of the biggest pavilions at an arms fair in Capetown in September.
'They're showing up at arms fairs they've never been to before,' said Siemon T. Wezeman, an arms trade expert at SIPRI. 'Whereas 15 years ago they had nothing really, now they're offering reasonable technology at a reasonable price.'
China is generating particular interest among developing countries, especially with the relatively cheap JF-17 fighter with a Russian engine.
The Kremlin has approved the re-export of the engine to Pakistan, as it has no arms business there.
But it was enraged last year when Azerbaijan, an ex-Soviet republic, began talks on buying JF-17s, according to people familiar with the situation.
Also last year, China's JF-17s and Russia's MiG-29s competed in a tender from Myanmar, which eventually chose the Russians, but paid less than they wanted.
This year, both entered a tender from Egypt, with China offering the JF-17 for $10 million less than Russia's $30 million MiG-29.
That prompted Mikhail Pogosyan, who heads Sukhoi and the company that makes MiGs, to suggest that the Kremlin stop selling China the Russian engines for the JF-17.
The Kremlin hasn't done that yet, but Russian officials have suggested privately taking legal action if China exports more advanced jets like the J-11B.
Last month, Russia's government proposed new legislation attaching an intellectual property rights clause to foreign military sales agreements.
The issue was raised during a visit by President Dmitry Medvedev to China in October, according to people familiar with the situation.
'Of course we're concerned, but we also recognize there's very little we can do,' said Mr. Pukhov, of the Russian Defense Ministry's Public Advisory Council.
Asked what advice he would give Western aerospace firms, Sukhoi's Mr. Sergeev said: 'They should keep in mind what products they're selling -- whether they're civilian or dual use. And most important is to prepare very carefully your contract documents.'
While Russia worries about intellectual property, other countries are concerned about security. The arms programs China initiated two or three decades ago are starting to bear fruit, with serious implications for the regional -- and global -- military balance.
The J-11B is expected to be used by the Chinese navy as its frontline fighter, capable of sustained combat over the entire East China Sea and South China Sea.
Aircraft carriers and J-15 fighters would further enhance its ability to stop the U.S. intervening in a conflict over Taiwan, and test its control of the Western Pacific.
China's arms exports could have repercussions on regions in conflict around the world. Pakistan inducted its first squadron of Chinese-made fighter jets in February, potentially altering the military balance with India.
Other potential buyers of China's JF-17 fighter jet include Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Nigeria, Morocco and Turkey. In the past, China has also sold fighters to Sudan.
The potential customer of greatest concern to the U.S. is Iran, which purchased about $260 million of weapons from China between 2002-2009, according to Russia's Centre for Analysis of the Global Arms Trade.
In June, China backed U.N. sanctions on Iran, including an expanded arms embargo, but Tehran continues to seek Chinese fighters and other weaponry.
Jeremy Page
For the next 15 years, Russia was China's biggest arms supplier, providing $20 billion to $30 billion of fighters, destroyers, submarines, tanks and missiles. It even sold Beijing a license to make the Su-27 fighter jet -- with imported Russian parts.
Today, Russia's military bonanza is over, and China's is just beginning.
After decades of importing and reverse-engineering Russian arms, China has reached a tipping point: It now can produce many of its own advanced weapons -- including high-tech fighter jets like the Su-27 -- and is on the verge of building an aircraft carrier.
Not only have Chinese engineers cloned the prized Su-27's avionics and radar but they are fitting it with the last piece in the technological puzzle, a Chinese jet engine.
In the past two years, Beijing hasn't placed a major order from Moscow.
Now, China is starting to export much of this weaponry, undercutting Russia in the developing world, and potentially altering the military balance in several of the world's flash points.
This epochal turnaround was palpable in the Russian pavilion at November's Airshow China in the southern city of Zhuhai. Russia used to be the star of this show, wowing visitors with its 'Russian Knights' aerobatic team, showing off fighters, helicopters and cargo planes, and sealing multibillion dollar deals on the sidelines.
This year, it didn't bring a single real aircraft -- only a handful of plastic miniatures, tended by a few dozen bored sales staff.
China, by contrast, laid on its biggest commercial display of military technology -- almost all based on Russian know-how.
The star guests were the 'Sherdils,' a Pakistani aerobatic team flying fighter jets that are Russian in origin but are now being produced by Pakistan and China.
'We used to be the senior partner in this relationship -- now we're the junior one,' said Ruslan Pukhov, of the Russian Defense Ministry's Public Advisory Council, a civilian advisory body to the military.
Russia's predicament mirrors that of many foreign companies as China starts to compete in global markets with advanced trains, power-generating equipment and other civilian products based on technology obtained from the West.
In this case, there is an additional security dimension, however: China is developing weapons systems, including aircraft carriers and carrier-based fighters, that could threaten Taiwan and test U.S. control of the Western Pacific.
Chinese exports of fighters and other advanced weapons also threaten to alter the military balance in South Asia, Sudan and Iran.
China's military muscle still lags far behind that of the U.S., by far the world's largest weapons manufacturer and exporter. China accounted for 2% of global arms transfers between 2005-2009, putting it in ninth place among exporters, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
But no other Asian country has sought to project military power -- and had the indigenous capability to do so -- since Japan's defeat in 1945.
China's rapid mastery of Russian technology raises questions about U.S. cooperation with the civilian faces of Chinese arms makers.
The Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC), China's state aerospace company, builds fighters, for instance. But it is also making a new passenger jet with help from General Electric Co. and other U.S. aerospace companies. A GE official says the company has partnered with foreign engine manufacturers for decades 'with elaborate protections built in place' that have preserved the company's intellectual property.
There are also implications for U.S. weapons programs. Last year the Pentagon decided to cut funding for the F-22 -- currently the most advanced fighter deployed in the world -- partly on the grounds that China wouldn't have many similar aircraft for at least 15 years.
But then Gen. He Weirong, deputy head of China's Air Force, announced that Chinese versions of such jets were about to undergo test flights, and would be deployed in 'eight or 10 years.'
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.The Defense Intelligence Agency now says it will take China 'about 10 years' to deploy stealth fighters in 'meaningful numbers.'
For Moscow and Beijing, meanwhile, a dispute over the intellectual-property rights to such weaponry is testing their efforts to overcome a long historical rivalry and build a new era of friendly ties.
'We didn't pay enough attention to our intellectual property in the past,' said a Russian defense official. 'Now China is even competing with us on the international market.'
Few things illustrate this more clearly than the J-11B, a Chinese fighter that Russian officials allege is a direct copy of the Su-27, a one-seat fighter that was developed by the Soviets through the 1970s and 1980s as a match for the U.S. F-15 and F-16.
Before the early 1990s, Moscow hadn't provided major arms to Beijing since an ideological split in 1956, which led to a brief border clash in 1969.
But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin was desperate for hard currency. In 1992, China became the first country outside the former Soviet Union to buy the Su-27, paying $1 billion for 24.
The deal was a coup for China, which had shifted its military focus away from a potential Soviet land invasion, and now wanted to defend territorial claims over Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea and East China Sea.
Efforts to upgrade its air and naval forces had been hampered by U.S. and European Union arms embargoes imposed after the 1989 crackdown on protesters around Tiananmen Square.
China's military modernization program grew more urgent after its leaders were stunned by the display of U.S. firepower during the first Gulf War, Western military officials say.
Beijing's breakthrough came in 1996, when it paid Russia $2.5 billion for a license to assemble another 200 Su-27s at the Shenyang Aircraft Company.
The agreement stipulated that the aircraft -- to be called the J-11 -- would include imported Russian avionics, radars and engines and couldn't be exported.
But after building 105, China abruptly canceled the contract in 2004, claiming the aircraft no longer met its requirements, according to Russian officials and defense experts.
Three years later, Russia's fears were confirmed when China unveiled its own version of the fighter jet -- the J-11B -- on state television.
'When the license was sold, everyone knew they would do this. It was just a risk that was taken,' said Vassily Kashin, a Russian expert on the Chinese military. 'At that time it was a question of survival.'
The J-11B looked almost identical to the Su-27, but China said it was 90% indigenous and included more advanced Chinese avionics and radars. Only the engine was still Russian, China said.
Now it is being fitted with a Chinese engine as well, according to Zhang Xinguo, deputy president of AVIC, which includes Shenyang Aircraft.
'You cannot say it's just a copy,' he said. 'Mobile phones all look similar. But technology is developing very quickly. Even if it looks the same, everything inside cannot be the same.'
The J-11B presented Russia with a stark choice -- to continue selling China weapons, and risk having them cloned, too, or to stop, and miss out on its still lucrative market.
Russia's initial response was to suspend talks on selling China the Su-33, a fighter with folding wings that can be used on aircraft carriers.
Since then, however, it has re-opened negotiations on the Su-33, although it rejected China's offer to buy just two, and insisted on a larger order.
Sukhoi Aviation Holding Co.'s official position now is that it remains confident about its business in China.
Indeed, many aviation experts believe AVIC is having problems developing an indigenous engine for the J-11B with the same thrust and durability as the original Russian ones.
Sukhoi is betting that China will have to buy the Su-33 on Russian terms as Beijing will struggle to develop its own carrier-based fighter in time for the planned launch of its first carriers in 2011 or 2012.
The company also hopes to sell China the Su-35 -- a more advanced version of the Su-27 -- if the J-11B doesn't perform well enough.
'We're just hoping our aircraft will be better,' said Sergey Sergeev, deputy director general of Sukhoi. 'It's one thing to make a good quality copy of a spoon, but quite another to make one of an aircraft.'
The Russian and Chinese governments both declined to comment.
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.In private, however, Russian officials say they worry that China is about to start mass producing and exporting advanced fighters -- without Russian help. China bought $16 billion worth of Russian arms between 2001 and 2008 -- 40% of Russia's sales.
Photographs published recently on Chinese military websites appear to show engines fitted on the J-11B and a modified version -- called the J-15 -- for use on aircraft carriers.
That has compounded Russian fears that China has reverse engineered an Su-33 prototype it acquired in 2001 from Ukraine, according to Russian defense experts.
At last year's Dubai Air Show, China demonstrated its L-15 trainer jet for the first time. In June, China made its debut at the Eurosatory arms fair in France.
In July, China demonstrated the JF-17 -- the fighter developed with Pakistan -- for the first time overseas at the Farnborough Airshow in Britain.
China also had one of the biggest pavilions at an arms fair in Capetown in September.
'They're showing up at arms fairs they've never been to before,' said Siemon T. Wezeman, an arms trade expert at SIPRI. 'Whereas 15 years ago they had nothing really, now they're offering reasonable technology at a reasonable price.'
China is generating particular interest among developing countries, especially with the relatively cheap JF-17 fighter with a Russian engine.
The Kremlin has approved the re-export of the engine to Pakistan, as it has no arms business there.
But it was enraged last year when Azerbaijan, an ex-Soviet republic, began talks on buying JF-17s, according to people familiar with the situation.
Also last year, China's JF-17s and Russia's MiG-29s competed in a tender from Myanmar, which eventually chose the Russians, but paid less than they wanted.
This year, both entered a tender from Egypt, with China offering the JF-17 for $10 million less than Russia's $30 million MiG-29.
That prompted Mikhail Pogosyan, who heads Sukhoi and the company that makes MiGs, to suggest that the Kremlin stop selling China the Russian engines for the JF-17.
The Kremlin hasn't done that yet, but Russian officials have suggested privately taking legal action if China exports more advanced jets like the J-11B.
Last month, Russia's government proposed new legislation attaching an intellectual property rights clause to foreign military sales agreements.
The issue was raised during a visit by President Dmitry Medvedev to China in October, according to people familiar with the situation.
'Of course we're concerned, but we also recognize there's very little we can do,' said Mr. Pukhov, of the Russian Defense Ministry's Public Advisory Council.
Asked what advice he would give Western aerospace firms, Sukhoi's Mr. Sergeev said: 'They should keep in mind what products they're selling -- whether they're civilian or dual use. And most important is to prepare very carefully your contract documents.'
While Russia worries about intellectual property, other countries are concerned about security. The arms programs China initiated two or three decades ago are starting to bear fruit, with serious implications for the regional -- and global -- military balance.
The J-11B is expected to be used by the Chinese navy as its frontline fighter, capable of sustained combat over the entire East China Sea and South China Sea.
Aircraft carriers and J-15 fighters would further enhance its ability to stop the U.S. intervening in a conflict over Taiwan, and test its control of the Western Pacific.
China's arms exports could have repercussions on regions in conflict around the world. Pakistan inducted its first squadron of Chinese-made fighter jets in February, potentially altering the military balance with India.
Other potential buyers of China's JF-17 fighter jet include Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Nigeria, Morocco and Turkey. In the past, China has also sold fighters to Sudan.
The potential customer of greatest concern to the U.S. is Iran, which purchased about $260 million of weapons from China between 2002-2009, according to Russia's Centre for Analysis of the Global Arms Trade.
In June, China backed U.N. sanctions on Iran, including an expanded arms embargo, but Tehran continues to seek Chinese fighters and other weaponry.
Jeremy Page
没有评论:
发表评论