最近，一位中国军事爱好者的网站上张贴的几张模糊的照片，在国际防务界掀起了轩然大波。
这些图片显示的是船厂中的一艘新型潜艇，看上去不同于中国海军任何现役舰艇。
美国安全专家很快断定，中国政府为自己迅速壮大的海军又增添了一种引人注目的武器装备。
与这艘突然出现在世人面前的新型潜艇一样，中国海军正以惊人的速度和胆魄，宣示其在公海上的地位。
20多年来，人民解放军(PLA)一直在致力于将自己从着眼于国土防卫、注重陆地作战、依赖庞大兵力的军队，转型为一支能够抢占制海权和制空权的技术含量高的军队。
这一转型的一部分，就是缔造一支能够远离海岸、长时间在公海执行任务的海军。
从近期的事件判断，这不再是一个遥远的目标；今年可能是中国“蓝水海军”成为现实的一年。这向中国的海上邻国以及目前的超级大国美国发出了警报。
今年4月，中国海军的一次军演令日本震惊：由护卫舰、驱逐舰和潜艇等10艘军舰组成的编队，穿过日本冲绳岛和宫古岛之间的海域，进入太平洋。日本情报显示，2008年首支通过该海域的中国舰艇编队只有4艘军舰。
尽管这些中国军舰是在公海航行，但日本防卫大臣北泽俊美(Toshimi Kitazawa)称这一行动是“空前”的，他还表示，他的国家需要对此次行动是否针对日本做出评估。
今年7月，美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的一则声明暴露了中国南部邻国的类似担忧。
希拉里把南中国海列为美国国家利益，并呼吁采用多边方式解决该地区的领土争端。
北起中国海南岛、南至婆罗洲岛之间的海域拥有丰富的油气储量，也是多数东亚国家能源进口的重要海上通道。
中国宣称对几乎整个南海拥有主权，这与该地区其它多个国家的领土主张重叠。越南、马来西亚、菲律宾和印尼的官员抱怨称，中国在南海的行为日益武断。
过去一年，中国海警越来越频繁地在有争议海域巡逻，并多次在那里拘留越南和马来西亚渔民。
在希拉里发表上述言论和美韩在黄海举行联合海军演习后不久，中国宣布在黄海、东海和南海进行一系列海军军演。
尽管这些军演多数早有计划，而且每年夏天都会定期演练，但专家们表示，中国如此高调地公布并进行军演，表明中国在海上表现得越来越自信。
伦敦国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)研究中国海军的专家加里•李(Gary Li)表示：“我从未见过如此众多的高层领导观看海军军演。”他指的是中国海军三大舰队在南海的联合军演，解放军总参谋长陈炳德和海军司令员吴胜利上将观看了此次军演。
今年8月，中国海军继续展示其日益壮大的实力。中国作为多国打击海盗任务的一部分向亚丁湾派遣的一艘医院船，对该地区进行了数次港口访问。
另外，一支从打击海盗任务中归来的海军舰艇编队出访缅甸，这是中国海军首次出访缅甸。此举令外界猜测，北京方面正在印度洋的战略海上通道上为自己的海军寻找立足点。
加里•李指出，中国海军利用参与打击海盗的机会，以“惊人速度”提高了其在远洋长期作战的能力。
目前，解放军显然正在装备现代化的努力中取得快速进展。
去年，解放军启用了海南岛的一个新建海军基地，那里是中国正在组建的晋级(Jin)核潜艇舰队的大本营。
北京的军方领导层还让外界基本上确信：中国正在建造自己的航空母舰，这是海军实力的最重要象征。
军事专家李南和克里斯多佛•韦弗(Christopher Weuve)今年在一篇论文中提出，中国的航母雄心不再像过去人们认为的那样，局限于近海任务。
不过，就像上个月突然出现在世人面前的潜艇一样，在实际列装某型新武器之前，中国军事现代化计划的很大一部分往往就如幻影一般。
中国国际问题研究所(China Institute of International Studies)军事专家滕建群表示，尽管面对西方的抱怨，解放军努力表现得更为透明，但情况不会大幅改变。
“对于中国而言，透明度意味着战略透明，而非作战细节，”他表示，“这是解放军的核心原则。”
译者/梁艳裳
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036106
Last month, a few fuzzy photographs posted on a Chinese military enthusiast’s website caused a huge stir in the international defence community.
They showed a new submarine in a shipyard that looked unlike any of the vessels the country’s military has in service so far.
Security experts in the US quickly concluded that Beijing had added another impressive piece of equipment to its fast-growing naval arsenal.
Just like the new boat appearing out of nowhere, the Chinese navy has moved with surprising speed and boldness to claim its place on the high seas.
For more than two decades, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has worked to transform itself from being inward-looking and land-focused, relying on a large headcount, into a technology-intensive force capable of roaming the seas and the air.
Part of that transformation has been creating a navy capable of moving beyond the coastal zone and operating on the high seas over extended periods.
Judging from recent events, that is no longer a distant goal; 2010 is likely to go down as the year when China’s blue-water navy became reality. This switched on warning lights among China’s coastal neighbours as well as the US, the incumbent superpower.
In April the PLA Navy shocked Japan with an exercise that took 10 warships, including frigates, destroyers and submarines, through the gap between Japan’s Okinawa and Miyako islands and into the Pacific Ocean. According to Japanese intelligence, the first group of Chinese military vessels to make the passage, in 2008 had consisted of only four ships.
Although the Chinese vessels were sailing in international waters, Toshimi Kitazawa, Japan’s defence minister, called the action “unprecedented” and said his country needed to evaluate whether it was directed against Japan.
In July, a statement by Hillary Clinton revealed similar concerns among China’s southern neighbours.
The US secretary of state called the South China Sea a US national interest and called for a multilateral approach in dealing with territorial disputes there.
The waters between the Chinese island of Hainan in the north and the island of Borneo in the south hold rich oil and gas reserves and vital sea lanes for energy imports of most East Asian nations.
China claims the region almost in its entirety. Its claims overlap with those of several other countries in the region. Officials in Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia have complained of increasingly assertive behaviour by China in the South China Sea.
Over the past year, Beijing’s coastguard has embarked on increasingly frequent patrols of contested waters and repeatedly detained Vietnamese and Malaysian fishermen there.
Shortly after Ms Clinton’s remarks and joint US-South Korean naval manoeuvres in the Yellow Sea, China announced a string of naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea.
While most of these exercises were long-planned and regular drills conducted every summer, experts say the fact that China publicised them and conducted them in such a high-profile manner signals Beijing’s increasing assertiveness at sea.
“I have never seen a PLA navy drill with so much senior attendance on deck,” says Gary Li, an expert on the Chinese navy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He is referring to a joint exercise of the PLA Navy’s three main fleets in the South China Sea that was observed by both general Chen Bingde, the PLA’s chief of general staff, and Admiral Wu Shengli, the PLA navy commander.
In August, the Chinese navy continued signalling its growing capabilities. A hospital ship that had been deployed to the Gulf of Aden as part of a multinational anti-piracy mission made several port visits in the region.
In addition, a contingent returning from the anti-piracy mission made the Chinese navy’s first port visit to Burma, fuelling speculation that Beijing is seeking footholds for its navy along strategic sea lanes in the Indian Ocean.
Mr Li points out that the Chinese navy has used its participation in the anti-piracy effort to upgrade its capabilities for operating far from shore over extended periods at a “staggering speed”.
These moves come as the PLA is apparently making rapid progress in its hardware modernisation effort.
Last year, the force began using a new naval base on Hainan island, where its emerging fleet of nuclear Jin class submarines is based.
Beijing’s military leadership has also left little doubt it is pursuing ownership of an aircraft carrier, the paramount symbol of naval power.
Nan Li and Christopher Weuve, two military experts, argued in a paper this year that Beijing’s aircraft-carrier ambitions are no longer limited to near-seas missions, as assumed in the past.
Just like the submarine emerging out of nowhere last month, however, large parts of Beijing’s military modernisation programme often resemble a phantom until deployment of a new weapon actually begins.
Despite efforts by the PLA to appear more transparent in response to western complaints, that is unlikely to change much, says Teng Jianqun, a military expert at the China Institute of International Studies.
“For China, transparency means transparency of strategy, not of operational detail,” he says. “That is at the core of the PLA’s doctrine.”
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