军事分析家们警告称，中国地区实力的提升，导致其东南亚邻国加大了国防采购的力度，从而有可能使南中国海地区的领土争议演变为暴力冲突。
瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(Sipri)武器转让项目高级研究员西蒙・魏泽曼(Siemon Wezeman)表示，近年来一些东南亚国家“明显”加大了潜艇、战斗机和远程导弹的采购力度。
“虽然东南亚各国政府……尚未公开表达对中国的担心，但它们对此有所考虑，并正以采购的武器做出说明，”魏泽曼表示。“15年前，南中国海地区同样存在着主权争议，但相关国家不具备实施其主权要求的手段。现在，随着一些国家在那里开采石油，局势看起来十分危险。”
许多东南亚国家的军队正努力实施前些年因亚洲金融危机而推迟的军购计划。
这一趋势的背后，既有国内因素、次区域因素，也有更高层次的战略考虑，但大多数国家还没有直接表明自己对中国感到担心。
然而，中国海军最近在南中国海北端的海南岛修建了一个潜艇基地。在存在争议的南海水域，中国与周边沿海国家和地区——文莱、马来西亚、菲律宾、台湾和越南——对潜在资源丰富的南沙群岛和西沙群岛群岛存在着领土争议。
斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所将于今日公布的数据显示，2005年至2009年期间，印尼的武器进口额较前5年增长84%，新加坡增长了146%，马来西亚则激增722%。
过去5年内，新加坡新增6艘护卫舰和32架战斗机，并订购了两艘潜艇和另外12架战机。马来西亚已有两艘潜艇、6艘护卫舰和26架战斗机交付使用。印尼进口了4艘护卫舰和4架战斗机，另外还订购了3架战斗机。
魏泽曼表示：“越南和泰国在这方面有些落后，但两国也有一些订单将在未来几年交付。”这些订单包括泰国的6架战斗机和1架预警机，越南的6艘潜艇、2艘护卫舰和8架战斗机。
新加坡国际战略研究所的蒂姆•赫胥黎(Tim Huxley)表示，新加坡的关切在于地区力量平衡变化的影响。“真正的问题是,中国和东南亚国家之间的实力相差悬殊。”
译者/功文
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031741
Military analysts are warning that China's increased regional power has caused its south-east Asian neighbours to step up their own defence purchases, raising the prospect that territorial disputes in the South China Sea could turn violent.
Siemon Wezeman, a senior fellow at the arms transfers programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), said that several south-east Asian countries had “dramatically” stepped up their purchases of submarines, fighter aircraft, and long-range missiles in recent years.
“While south-east Asian governments . . . still don't openly voice concerns over China, they think about it, and they are making a statement with what they are buying,” he said. “Fifteen years ago, there were the same conflicting claims in the South China Sea but the countries didn't have the means to enforce their claims. Now, the moment somebody hits oil there, things might look very dangerous.”
Many of south-east Asia's militaries are trying to catch up on purchases they deferred several years earlier as their countries were reeling from the Asian financial crisis.
They are driven by a mix of domestic, subregional and larger strategic considerations, and most governments have yet directly to name China as a concern.
However, the Chinese navy has recently built a submarine base on Hainan Island, at the top of the disputed waters of the South China Sea, where it has a territorial dispute with the surrounding littoral states – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam – over the potentially resource-rich Spratly and Paracel archipelagos.
According to data to be released by Sipri today, Indonesia's arms imports between 2005 and 2009 grew 84 per cent compared with the preceding five years, Singapore's increased by 146 per cent, and Malaysia's rocketed by 722 per cent.
Singapore added six frigates and 32 fighter aircraft over the past five years and ordered two submarines and 12 more fighters. Malaysia took delivery of two submarines, six frigates and 26 fighter aircraft. Indonesia imported four frigates and four fighter aircraft and ordered three more.
“Vietnam and Thailand are lagging behind, but both have placed orders recently to be delivered in the coming years,” Mr Wezeman said. This includes six fighter aircraft and one early-warning aircraft for Thailand and six submarines, two frigates and eight fighter aircraft for Vietnam.
Singapore's concern is over the impact of the shift in the balance of power in the region, said Tim Huxley of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore. “The real problem is the huge discrepancy in power between China and the south-east Asian nations.”
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