伦敦著名黑色出租车的制造商——英国锰铜控股公司(Manganese Bronze)于3月17日宣布，决定将公司控股权出让给中国汽车制造商吉利(Geely)。这是英国工程技术类公司将生存希望寄托于新兴市场的最新例证。
锰铜控股是否可能让中国生产的黑色出租车在北京和上海变得与伦敦一样常见，仍须拭目以待。
但它证明了诸多英国工程技术公司的雄心：不仅要利用中国等新兴经济体较为低廉的制造业成本，还要在西方经济体停滞之际，利用它们日益上升的国内需求。
并且，尽管英国政府与贸易团体仍向来英的投资者吹嘘：英国是设立制造业的上佳地点，但迅速增长的新兴经济体，似乎必将从英国上市工程技术公司的投资中获取超乎比例的益处。
GKN是众多迅速扩大在所谓的金砖四国（Bric，中国、印度、巴西与俄罗斯）业务的英国企业中典型的一家，计划今年在印度与中国扩大生产。
GKN首席执行官凯文•史密斯爵士(Sir Kevin Smith)上月表示，GKN准备扩大生产，以跟上这些新兴市场汽车销售强劲增长的步伐，他期待欢迎人们重新“回到GKN的大家庭”。与此相反，发达国家的汽车生产持续萎缩，使得GKN扩大了2008年末的裁员，在2009年进一步裁员3500人，并关闭了13家工厂。
总部位于米德兰的IMI也是如此：在全球衰退笼罩下施行“必要精简举措”的同时，仍于去年在上海成功开设了一家新厂。该公司还计划再开设两家工厂——一家在捷克、另一家在印度，今年年底前可完全投入使用。
IMI首席执行官马丁•拉姆(Martin Lamb)表示，公司计划在未来两到三年内，将设在低成本新兴经济体的制造业务比重，从大约35%提高至50%；另外，公司还试图从大众化产品转向高精尖产品，后者在衰退时期销售利润比较有保证。
大多数首席执行官似乎确信，在一段时间内，西方核心发达经济体——在许多订单册上仍占主宰地位——的复苏仍将较为缓慢。所以，尽管西欧与北美仍在英国贸易与制造业出口中占据领先地位，但多数企业都在削减、而非扩大这方面的产能。
但将制造业务转移至境外也会令人失望。在衰退期间，对距离遥远、且有欠稳定的供应链的管理问题，加之一些金砖国家经济体本地成本的上升，已促使少数公司将制造业务重新转回英国，因为预期中的成本节省并没有实现。
尽管如此，据制造业组织英国工程雇主联合会(EEF)与BDO最近的报告“制造业优势”(Manufacturing Advantage)显示，节省成本的前景，仍然是英国公司将更多生产转移至新兴经济体的关键因素。除了这一点，利用金砖国家日益增长的国内需求所提供的机遇，在战略上也变得越来越重要。此前，这些公司只是简单地将制造成本低廉的商品直接重新出口到西方经济体。
这一观点得到了Altium Capital分析师史蒂夫•梅德利科特(Steve Medlicott)的支持。
他表示：“生产向低成本地区转移的趋势必然会继续，但通常来说，大部分资本品公司会将地理需求与生产匹配起来。因此，随着新兴经济体增长提速，这些地区制造业在该公司总业务中所占比例将会上升。为了加快增长，企业需要在新兴市场设立制造业务。”
杰富瑞国际(Jefferies International)跟踪英国工程技术类股票的约翰•迪安(John Dean)辩称，该行业大多数公司总体上“表现得比预期要好很多”。在大举削减成本之后，它们已做好充分利用贸易方面任何进一步复苏的准备。
不过迪安表示，另一个有利于许多工程技术类股票的因素是，“它们中许多企业尚未过度涉足消费市场，且许多已经在远东地区有了相当好的渗透。”远东地区经济体的状况仍相当强劲。
这一优势已在工程技术类股的反弹上得到了体现；同时，尽管锰铜控股或许还要等上一段时间，才能看到亚洲对于其黑色出租车的需求，但迪安相信，该行业还有进一步上升的空间。
他表示：“现在很难找到抛售工业类股的理由。”
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031826
The decision - announced on the 17 March - of Manganese Bronze, maker of the famous London black taxi, to cede control of the company to Chinese carmaker Geely presents the latest example of a UK engineering company pinning its hopes for survival on emerging markets.
Whether Manganese has any chance of making a Chinese-produced version of its black cab as common a sight in Beijing and Shanghai as it is in London remains to be seen.
But it demonstrates the ambition of many UK engineering companies not just to exploit emerging economies such as China for their low manufacturing costs, but also for their growing domestic demand as western economies stagnate.
And, while the UK government and trade bodies still trumpet Britain's advantages to inward investors as a good place to base manufacturing, it is fast-moving emerging economies that look set to benefit disproportionately from investment by UK-listed engineering companies.
GKN, with plans to expand production in India and China this year, is typical of many UK companies seeking to crank up business in the so-called Bric economies of China, India, Brazil and eastern Europe.
Sir Kevin Smith, chief executive of GKN, said last month he was looking forward to welcoming people back "into the GKN family" as it prepared to step up production to keep pace with strong vehicle sales growth in these emerging markets. This is in spite of the continued contraction in vehicle production in developed countries that prompted GKN to extend the job cuts of late 2008 by shedding a further 3,500 employees and closing 13 facilities in 2009.
Midlands-based IMI is another company that, alongside "essential right sizing initiatives" in the grips of global recession, still managed to open a new facility in Shanghai last year and expects to have two further plants - one in the Czech Republic and one in India, fully operational by the end of the year.
According to Martin Lamb, chief executive, the aim is to expand the percentage of manufacturing in low-cost, emerging economies from about 35 per cent to 50 per cent within the next two to three years, as the company also seeks to move away from commoditised products towards high-specification lines whose sales margins can be protected in recession.
Most chief executives appear convinced that recovery in core western developed economies - which continue to dominate many order books - could remain muted for some time. So, although western Europe and North America still lead trade and manufacturing exports from the UK, capacity reduction rather than expansion remains the norm.
But offshoring can turn sour. The problems of managing unreliable and remote supply chains during recession, combined with the issue of localised cost inflation in some Bric economies, have led a small number of companies to return manufacturing to the UK as expected savings have not been achieved.
The prospects of cost savings, though, continue to be a key factor in the migrating of more production to emerging economies, according to Manufacturing Advantage, a recent report by EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, and BDO. On top of this, the opportunities presented by tapping into the booming local demand of Bric countries, rather than simply exporting cheaply produced goods directly back to western economies, are becoming strategically more important.
This point is backed by Steve Medlicott, analyst at Altium Capital.
He says: "There will inevitably be a continued trend to low-cost regions, but generally most capital goods companies match geographical demand and manufacture. Consequently as the emerging economies grow faster, the proportion of manufacturing in these geographies will grow as a percentage of a company's total. To grow faster, you need to have a physical manufacturing presence in the emerging markets."
John Dean, a follower of UK engineering stocks at Jefferies International, argues that most companies in the sector have generally "delivered much better than expected". Having cut costs aggressively, their operations are poised to take full advantage of any further pick-up in trade.
Another positive factor for many engineering stocks, though, is that "many are not overly exposed to consumer markets, and are quite well exposed to the Far East," he says, where economies remain strong.
That strength has been reflected in a recovery in engineering share prices and, although it may be some time before Manganese sees Asian demand for its black cabs, Mr Dean is convinced that the sector has further to go.
"It's hard to argue for selling industrials at the moment," he says.
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