渣打银行(Standard Chartered)大中华区研究部主管王志浩(Stephen Green)表示，人们应做好准备，有关人民币问题全球性辩论的风向可能会发生巨变。
王志浩表示："如果中国到下个月仍不采取明显举措，停止盯住美元，华盛顿方面就有可能实施贸易制裁。中国如何回应，将为2010年的全球贸易和外汇市场定下基调。"
中国政府称，管控之下的人民币盯住美元的汇率政策适合当前的经济环境。但渣打表示，由于控制汇率需要政府大举干预，美国财政部有理由在预期将于4月15日发布的年度汇率报告中，宣称人民币受到了"操纵"。
王志浩表示，美国经济低迷显然已激发了公众的愤怒情绪，并指出，人们对自由贸易的潜在担忧在与日俱增。
他表示："奥巴马政府必须创造就业岗位，这有赖于美国出口的复苏，而美元贬值能对此有所帮助。"
中国央行行长周小川最近的讲话试图发出一个信号，即中国当前的汇率政策是为了应对全球金融危机的暂时策略，迟早将做出改变。但北京方面仍对本国出口和全球复苏的可持续性表示担心。王志浩警告称，"迟早"这个表态不太可能让华盛顿方面感到满意。
译者/陈云飞
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031779
Get ready for a huge shift in the global debate on the Chinese renminbi, says Stephen Green, head of research, greater China, at Standard Chartered.
"If China does not make an obvious move away from its US dollar peg in the next month, Washington could impose trade sanctions," says Mr Green. "How China responds will set the tone for global trade and foreign exchange markets for 2010."
China says its managed currency peg is appropriate for the current economic environment. But with huge intervention required to control the exchange rate, the US Treasury has cause to declare the renminbi "manipulated" in its annual currencies report, due on April 15, says Standard Chartered.
Mr Green says the US downturn has clearly created an angry public, and notes that underlying unease about free trade is coming to the fore.
"The Obama administration needs to generate jobs, this requires a revival in US exports, which a weaker dollar would help," says Mr Green.
Recent comments by Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, are an attempt to signal that the peg is a temporary response to the financial crisis, and that this will change soon. But Beijing still has concerns about exports and the sustainability of the global recovery. "Soon" is unlikely to be good enough for Washington, warns Mr Green.
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