随着十一届全国人民代表大会第三次会议的闭幕，与一周前相比，中国观察家们现在掌握了什么新情况？并不多。与去年年底可能在树荫浓密的中南海召开的中央经济工作会议(Central Economic Work Conference)不同，人代会并不是一个进行辩论或制定政策的论坛。这个一年一度的闭门会议在人民大会堂举行，聚集了来自全国各地的近3000名代表，但它基本上是一个橡皮图章式的立法机构。
整整一周的发言都是在重复大家已耳熟能详的目标：增长温和放缓，从去年的8.7%降至8%；重点加大在医疗与住房方面的公共支出；默认房价及地方政府债务的日益攀升；不打算在人民币汇率上采取行动。不过，一个新亮点是总理温家宝为全年居民消费价格(CPI)设定的目标：从去年的4%降至3%。这使得人们从一种新的视角考量上周四公布的系列月度数据。大部分指标可能让温家宝感到满意――银行新增贷款较1月份下降了一半，前两个月的CPI为温和的2.1%――但另一个指标让他感到踌躇。今年前两个月，工业增加值同比增长逾20%，2月份出厂价格增长了5.4%；这两个数字均高于预期水平。
此外，2月份2.7%的CPI，意味着实际利率自2008年以来首次为负，这会鼓励储户去追逐资产，从而推高资产价格。M1的增长已持续超过M2，这表明，迄今为止的紧缩举措将更多的流动性推入了投机性活动，而非较长期的投资。因此，尽管温家宝昨日在人代会闭幕发言时强调了连贯性，但投资者已经准备好迎接一年期定存与一年期贷款利率的上调――或许最早就在今日。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031738
As the bunting comes down on the third session of the 11th National People's Congress, what do China-watchers know now that they didn't know a week ago? Not a lot. Unlike the year-end Central Economic Work Conference, probably held in the shadowy compound of Zhongnanhai, the NPC is not a forum for debate or decision-making. This annual conclave in the Great Hall of the People, drawing almost 3,000 delegates from all corners of the country, is basically a rubber-stamp legislature.
Remarks throughout the week echoed already-familiar objectives: a mild slowdown in growth, from 8.7 per cent last year to 8 per cent; public spending to focus on healthcare and housing; nods to rising property prices and local government debt; no movement on the currency. One new nugget, however, was Premier Wen Jiabao's full-year consumer price inflation target of 3 per cent, down from 4 per cent last year. That put Thursday's monthly data dump in a new light. For every item that might have pleased Mr Wen � new bank lending cut in half from January, consumer price inflation a modest 2.1 per cent over the first two months � there was another to give him pause. Industrial output increased by more than a fifth year-on-year in the first two months, while factory-gate prices were up by 5.4 per cent in February; both stronger than expected.
Further, February's CPI reading of 2.7 per cent meant that real interest rates are negative for the first time since 2008, encouraging savers to chase assets higher. Already, M1 growth is consistently outpacing M2, suggesting that tightening measures so far have pushed more liquidity into speculative activities than longer-term investment. So, while Mr Wen was emphasising continuity in his closing comments yesterday, investors are positioning for higher one-year deposit rates and one-year loan rates � perhaps as early as today.
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