全球最知名的消费品牌之一，甘冒退出世界第一人口大国的风险，听起来或许像一种疯狂的商业行为。
但分析师和其他观察人士表示，谷歌(Google)决定在审查问题上对抗中国当局，反映了对自身在华短期发展前景有限的现实考虑，而且，此举实际上可能为谷歌在世界其它地区带来附带好处。
不过，从长远来看，此举对其业务造成的后果可能没有想象的乐观。
“种种情况都对他们非常不利。”Piper Jaffray互联网行业分析师基尼•蒙斯特(Gene Munster)表示。甚至在1月份谷歌宣布将停止对在华搜索服务的自我审查之前，中国官员就已多次直言批评谷歌，指责该公司未能为本地网民过滤色情信息。
谷歌加州总部对此的理解是：中国当局不想让谷歌像在其它许多国家一样占据市场支配地位，而希望本土搜索服务商百度(Baidu)保持领先地位。
“我不确定他们是否有的选择——他们选择离开中国，似乎是因为他们在那里越来越经营不下去。不是今年离开，就是明年离开，因为他们眼看着形势对百度越来越有利，商业间谍行为也越来越多。”哥伦比亚大学全球品牌领导力中心(Center on Global Brand Leadership)执行主任戴维•罗杰斯(David Rogers)表示。
中国互联网广告市场的规模约为10亿美元，而据大多数分析师估计，谷歌在华收入在2.5亿至3亿美元之间。因此，对于去年全球收入逾230亿美元的谷歌来说，离开中国在短期内对公司影响不大。
但是，Susquehanna金融集团的分析师玛丽安•沃尔克(Marianne Wolk)表示，到2014年，中国市场规模很可能增长到150亿至200亿美元，人们原本可以预计——在谷歌本周宣布决定之前——谷歌将可获得其中的50亿至60亿美元。
谷歌究竟仍有多少在中国长期保持重要地位的现实打算？未来几日，随着中国当局对谷歌将搜索服务撤离中国审查范围的举动做出回应，这个问题可能会变得更为明朗。
即使中国不再对谷歌采取任何激烈举措，谷歌以往在中国“防火长城”之外运营搜索服务的经历也无法令人感到振奋。
2002年至2006年期间，谷歌在中国搜索服务市场的占有率从24%下滑到13%，这期间该网站时不时会被封掉，甚至眼看着自己的一些流量转到百度。据估计，自从谷歌在中国内地安装服务器，推出Google.cn以来，其市场占有率已回升至20%乃至更高的水平。如今谷歌又将重新经历当初的情况。谷歌在华其它业务看起来也将受到冲击。十几家其它互联网公司分销谷歌的搜索服务和广告，但其中数家一直在收缩。昨日，本地门户网站Tom在线(Tom Online)宣布停止谷歌的服务。颇受欢迎的游戏和交流服务网站腾讯(Ten Cent)则于去年结束了与谷歌的合作，以推出自己的搜索引擎。
另一方面，一些观察人士认为，在世界其它地区，反对审查的立场可能为谷歌带来宝贵的益处，只是难以量化。
2006年在中国接受自我审查制度，对谷歌的声誉来说是一个转折点。谷歌的“不作恶”(Don't be evil)口号首次遭到质疑与批评。如今采取反对立场，可能有助于为谷歌品牌历来表现出的理想主义增添一些光芒，增强广告客户和用户对谷歌的亲切感。一位广告公司资深高管表示，对于中国以外的广告客户，此举不太可能产生明显影响。
反对审查的立场，可能对谷歌与政府机构的关系产生更为深远的影响。罗杰斯表示：“这将有助于提升他们在监管者心目中的形象。这可能有着重大意义，尤其是当他们在未来一些年将面临更多监管审查的情况下。”
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031904
It might seem like commercial madness for one of the world's best-known consumer brands willingly to risk ejection from the most populous country.
Yet Google's decision to confront Chinese authorities over censorship reflects a realistic view about its limited business prospects in the country in the short term, and could actually have spin-off benefits elsewhere in the world, according to analysts and other observers.
The longer-term consequences for its business could, however, be less palatable.
“The cards were stacked too heavily against them,” said Gene Munster, an internet analyst at Piper Jaffrey. Even before its announcement in January that it would abandon self-censorship on its local Chinese search service, Google had endured a series of outspoken attacks from officials over allegations that it failed to protect local users from pornography.
The message was not lost back at Google's headquarters in California: the Chinese authorities had no intention of allowing the company to assume the sort of market dominance it enjoys in many other countries around the world, and preferred to keep the home-grown Baidu as the local search leader.
“I'm not sure they had a choice – it seems they chose to leave China because it was becoming untenable to keep working there,” said David Rogers, executive director of Columbia University's Center on Global Brand Leadership. “If they didn't leave this year, it would have been next year, as they saw more momentum going to Baidu and more corporate espionage.”
With China's internet advertising market pegged at about $1bn, and Google's revenues from the country estimated by most analysts at $250m-$300m, the risk of departure has little immediate impact on a company with revenues last year of more than $23bn.
By 2014, though, the Chinese market could well have grown to $15bn-$20bn a year, and Google could have expected – before this week's announcement – to earn $5bn-$6bn of that, according to Marianne Wolk, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group.
The extent to which it still has a realistic shot at keeping a significant long-term position in the country is likely to become clearer in the coming days as the Chinese authorities react to its gambit to push its search service beyond the reach of the censors.
Even if China does not take any more swingeing action against the company, Google's previous experience of running a search service from outside the country's “Great Firewall” is not encouraging.
Between 2002 and 2006 its share of the Chinese search business slumped from 24 per cent to 13 per cent as it faced sporadic blocks and even saw some of its traffic diverted to Baidu. Market share estimates suggest it has rebounded to 20 per cent or more since it installed its servers on the mainland to power the Google.cn service, but faces a repeat of its earlier experience. Other parts of Google's business in China also look set to take a hit. Around a dozen other internet companies distribute its search results and advertising, but some of these have been pulling back. Yesterday, Tom Online, a local portal company, said it would drop Google, while Ten Cent, a popular games and communication service, ended its ties with the US company last year in order to launch its own search engine.
Outside China, on the other hand, the company could see valuable benefits to taking a stand against censorship, according to some observers, though these are hard to quantify.
Submitting to self-censorship in China was a turning point for the company's reputation in 2006, and the first time it's “Don't be evil” motto was subjected to sceptical critique. Taking a stand now could help to burnish some of the idealism traditionally attached to its brand and reinforce the goodwill of advertisers and users. One senior advertising group executive said the move was unlikely to make any measurable difference to advertisers outside China.
The stand against censorship could have a more meaningful impact on its relations with government agencies. “It will help their image in the eyes of regulators,” added Mr Rogers. “It could be significant, especially as they come under more regulatory scrutiny in the years to come.”
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