尼尔森(Nielson)研究公司表示，到明年年底，iPhone、黑莓(BlackBerry)和摩托罗拉Droid (Motorola Droid)等智能手机在美国市场的销量，将超过老一代的“多功能手机”(feature phone)。
尼尔森负责电信研究的罗杰•恩特(Roger Entner)在一份新报告中预测，未来18个月内，美国智能手机销量将稳步增长，到明年秋季，智能手机销量占手机总销量的比例，将达到略低于50%的水平。
他表示：“我们正处于一个新无线时代的开端，在这个时代，智能手机将成为消费者用来与朋友、互联网和世界联系的标准设备。”
配备一体化摄像头、具有多媒体功能的“多功能手机”仍占总销量的70%以上，但尖端智能手机的销量正在迅速拉近与多功能手机之间的差距，这种手机可以定制，安装下载的软件或app（应用软件）。
恩特表示：“在过去6个月里，智能手机占手机总销量的比例已经升至29%。在尼尔森的一项调查中，45%的受访者表示，下一次会购买智能手机。”
恩特的看法，与Gartner和IDC等机构的行业分析师、以及摩托罗拉手机业务首席执行官桑杰•贾(Sanjay Jha)等业内人士的意见吻合。
“最终人们都会使用智能手机，”桑杰•贾最近接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示。
在过去18个月内，大张旗鼓的媒体广告，以及网上app店的成功，尤其是苹果(Apple)可提供10万多种免费或廉价app的网店，推动美国智能手机的销量大幅增长。
而恩特预测智能手机销量还将进一步增长。去年年底，21%的美国无线用户使用智能手机，此前一个季度这个比例为19%，而2008年底仅为14%。
他表示：“如果把这些意向性数据，和这类手机不断降价、性能不断增强，以及应用软件激增结合起来，我们就看到了一场海啸的开端。”
“增长将十分迅速。到2011年底，尼尔森预计，美国市场上智能手机将多于多功能手机。”
分析师预计，其它市场也将出现与美国市场类似的增长。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031974
Sales of smartphones in the US such as the iPhone, BlackBerry and Motorola Droid will overtake sales of older generation “feature phones'” by the end of next year, according to the Nielson research company.
Smartphone sales in the US will climb steadily over the next 18 months and account for just under 50 per cent of total sales by the autumn of next year, predicts a new report prepared by Roger Entner who is in charge of Nielson's telecom practice.
“We are just at the beginning of a new wireless era where smartphones will become the standard device consumers will use to connect to friends, the internet and the world at large,” he said.
Feature phones, which typically include integrated cameras and multimedia capabilities, still account for over 70 per cent of sales, but sophisticated smartphones, which can be customised with downloaded software or ‘apps', are closing the gap quickly.
“The share of smartphones as a proportion of overall device sales has increased to 29 per cent for phone purchasers in the last six months, and 45 per cent of respondents to a Nielsen survey indicated their next device will be a smartphone,” he said.
His comments echo those of other industry analysts at Gartner and IDC and by phonemakers such as Sanjay Jha, chief executive of Motorola's mobile phone business.
“All phones will be smartphones eventually,” Mr Jha said during a recent interview with the Financial Times.
Heavy media advertising, coupled with the success of online app stores, especially Apple's which now offers over 100,000 free and low-cost apps, has helped fuel the surge in US smartphone sales over the past 18 months.
Nevertheless, Mr Entner forecasts further growth. At the end of last year only 21 per cent of American wireless subscribers were using a smartphone compared with 19 per cent in the previous quarter and just 14 per cent at the end of 2008.
“If we combine these intentional data points with falling prices and increasing capabilities of these devices along with a explosion of applications, we are seeing the beginning of a groundswell.
“This increase will be so rapid that by the end of 2011 Nielsen expects more smartphones in the US market than feature phones,” he said.
Analysts expect growth in the US to be matched in other markets.
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