谷
歌(Google Inc.)看起来越来越有可能关闭旗下的中文搜索引擎，此举将使最后的主要外国互联网企业之一从世界上人口最多、增长最快的互联网市场退出。据一位知情人士上周六透露，谷歌可能会在几个月内采取行动。
AFP/Getty Images
一名行人从谷歌中国在北京的总部大楼前走过
上周五，工信部部长李毅中在回答一位记者关于谷歌计划停止过滤搜索结果的问题时说，这样做将是不负责任的，并警告说如果谷歌违反了中国的规定，它将必须承担相应后果。
他的话巩固了这样的猜测：如果谷歌停止审查Google.cn的内容，有关部门将迫使Google.cn关闭。
据位于北京的研究公司易观国际(Analysys International)的数据，谷歌在中国搜索市场收入中约占36%的份额，而中国本土的竞争对手百度则有58%的份额。谷歌是在中国拥有相当大市场份额的少数几家外国企业之一。严格的政府监管、来自中国企业激烈的竞争、外国企业自身的不足，这些因素加在一起意味着外国互联网企业进入中国市场要么困难重重，要么从未进入过中国市场。
谷歌关闭Google.cn的行动将使中国的互联网几乎完全被本土企业所占据。中国约有4亿互联网用户，是世界上网络用户最多的国家，而且每天还有约25万的新增用户。
这有助于中国政府控制信息的努力，原因是政府可以更容易地控制本土企业，不过这也意味着在中国经济增长最快的领域之一，外国企业的参与将是有限的，导致中国用户越来越孤立。
加州大学伯克利分校中国互联网项目(China Internet Project)负责人萧强说，Google.cn的关闭可能会被视为是"中国特色的互联网"(Chinternet)的开始，"中国特色的互联网"越来越不同于全球互联网。
研究中国媒体和互联网的网站"单位"(Danwei.org)创始人金玉米(Jeremy Goldkorn)说，对中国互联网领域来说，它面临的危险是，没有了谷歌的参与，它的竞争力会减弱。他说，谷歌通过采取与中国本土竞争对手不同的做法而激发了竞争，它采取的措施包括当搜索结果受到审查时，会通知用户。
金玉米说，谷歌退出中国市场还将向其他外国企业发出一个信号：在中国经营企业，环境很恶劣。如果谷歌离开了，这将成为任何考虑在华开展业务的外国企业认真考虑的一个问题。
其他为数不多的几家外资互联网企业在中国占有一定的市场份额，不过没有一家有谷歌的规模。据易观国际的数据，去年四季度，亚马逊(Amazon.com Inc.)旗下的中国子公司在中国网络b2c零售市场上占有8%的份额。去年二季度，Expedia Inc.旗下的艺龙网(ELong Inc.)在中国在线旅游预定市场上占有约10%的份额。微软(Microsoft Corp.)旗下的MSN Messenger是通过一家合资企业在华运营的，它在中国占有4%的即时消息用户，相比之下，中国腾讯(Tencent Holdings Ltd.)的QQ服务则占有77%的用户。
外国公司在华份额较小在一定程度上是中国互联网公司竞争的结果，后者通常更善于推出迎合中国的口味的产品和业务。面对市场份额不断被竞争对手淘宝网蚕食的事实，EBay公司于2006年撤出了中国市场。淘宝网(Taobao.com)是阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group)旗下的拍卖网站，在一定程度上由于其提供免费的服务，受到了市场的欢迎。
雅虎公司(Yahoo Inc.)于1999年进入中国，是进入中国市场的第一家外国互联网公司，在中国苦苦挣扎了多年之后，于2005年以其中国业务和10亿美元的代价换取了阿里巴巴集团这家中国公司约40%的股份。
但中国的严格监管也起到了一定作用。中国政府禁止外国公司直接拥有互联网内容许可证，例如要求它们拥有中国本土的合作伙伴。遵守中国的审查制度比较复杂且有政治风险，让这些公司受到了自己国家人权积极分子们的批评。
一些公司已决定完全不涉足中国市场：据知情人士透露，两年多以前，Facebook的代表来到中国对进入中国市场的可能性进行评估。但这家公司从未建立中国网站，而且其国际网站如今仍被中国屏蔽。
Facebook的竞争对手聚友网(MySpace)拥有中文版聚友中国(MySpace China)网站的股份，但这个中文网站落后于人人网(Renren.com)等中国本土的竞争对手。聚友网和《华尔街日报》同属新闻集团(News Corp.)旗下。
研究互联网问题的哈佛法学院教授帕弗瑞(John Palfrey)说谷歌在中国的境遇更加关系到其它科技公司如何管理它们的海外业务。
帕弗瑞说，我认为中国市场是这一问题的决定性考验。因为它是世界上最大的互联网市场，大型科技公司无法忽视它的存在。这一争端的结果对于在华运营的外国信息技术公司而言将极为重要。
谷歌公司在1月12日的声明中说北京正在加强对言论的限制，并称针对谷歌及其它外国公司的一系列网络攻击是致使其决定停止过滤谷歌中国(Google.cn)网站搜索结果的原因。谷歌与中国当局谈判的部分内容是确定此举是否会影响它的其它在华业务，包括通过它的AdSense服务在其它中国网站上销售广告以及在它的国际网站上销售广告。
如果中国政府如外界预期强迫谷歌关闭中国网站，谷歌仍可象它于2006年启用谷歌中国网站之前多年的作法一样，从海外向中国用户提供中文搜索服务。用户理论上也可继续使用Gmail等其它未基于中国的谷歌服务。
中国政府能够阻止网民从中国境内进入这些网站，但大多数分析师称北京当局不会做得这么过火，因为这有激怒数百万谷歌用户的风险。但中国政府可以通过不时中止用户进入谷歌网站或减慢登陆速度的方式降低谷歌业务的吸引力，或者可以有选择地屏蔽部分谷歌业务。
在谷歌1月发表声明之前，中国当局已一直在屏蔽其YouTube和Blogger网站。
某些情况下，中国政府干涉外国网站的作法为中国本土的竞争对手带来了明显的优势。例如由用户创建的百科词典──维基百科Wikipedia，其英文版在中国多年来一直不时受到屏蔽，而中文版几乎一直受到屏蔽。因此，中文维基百科仅有300,000篇文章，而英文版却有约320万篇文章。与此同时，百度于2006年创办的、基于中国的百科词典也是由用户自己创建词条，已有210万篇文章。
Loretta Chao / Ben Worthen
（更新完成）
Google Inc. appears increasingly likely to shutter its Chinese-language search engine, a step that would remove one of the last major foreign players from the world's most populous and fastest-growing Internet market.
A person familiar with situation said on Saturday that Google is likely to take action within weeks.
Google and Chinese authorities have been in talks about the extent to which the U.S. Internet giant will be able to operate a business in China if it follows through on its pledge two months ago to stop following government censorship requirements on its Chinese site, Google.cn. Those talks increasingly appear deadlocked, and Google's hopes for being able to continue operating Google.cn unfiltered -- which were always thin -- have all but disappeared.
On Friday, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong, asked by a reporter about Google's plan to stop filtering results, said doing so would be 'irresponsible' and warned that the company would 'have to bear the consequences' if it violates China's rules.
His comments reinforced expectations that the authorities will force Google.cn to close if the company stops censoring it.
Google has about 36% of China's search revenue, according to Analysys International, a Beijing-based research firm, compared to 58% for local rival Baidu Inc. The U.S. company is one of the few foreign participants with significant market share. A combination of strict government regulation, intense competition from Chinese companies, and ineptitude on the part of the foreign companies themselves has meant that foreign Internet companies have either struggled to make inroads in China or never entered the market to begin with.
Google's closure of Google.cn would leave the Internet in China -- which has about 400 million users, more than any other country, and is adding about 250,000 more each day -- almost entirely dominated by local companies.
That helps the Chinese government's efforts to control information, because it can more easily control local companies, but it means foreign participation in one of the fastest-growing parts of China's economy will be limited, and it leaves Chinese users increasingly isolated.
Xiao Qiang, director of the China Internet Project at the University of California at Berkeley, says the closure of Google.cn could be seen as the beginning of a 'Chinternet' that is increasingly distinct from the global Internet.
'The danger for the Chinese Internet scene is that it becomes a less competitive place' without Google's participation, says Jeremy Goldkorn, founder of Danwei.org, a Web site about the media and the Internet in China. Google has spurred competition in China by doing things differently from local rivals, like notifying users when search results were being censored, he says.
A Google departure from the Chinese market would also send a message to other foreign companies that China is 'a very tough environment to run a business,' Mr. Goldkorn says. 'If Google leaves it's going to be something that any foreign company that considers opening up shop here will consider very seriously.'
A tiny handful of other foreign-owned Internet companies have attained meaningful shares of markets in China, though none as large as Google's. Amazon.com Inc.'s Chinese unit had 8% of the online business-to-consumer retail market in the fourth quarter, according to Analysys International. ELong Inc., a unit of Expedia Inc., had about 10% of China's online travel-booking market in the second quarter of last year. Microsoft Corp.'s MSN Messenger, which is run in China through a joint venture, has 4% of instant messaging users, compared to 77% for the QQ service from China's Tencent Holdings Ltd.
In part, the small role of foreigners is the result of competition from Chinese Internet companies that are often more adept at adapting products and services to Chinese tastes. EBay Inc. withdrew from the China market in 2006 after steadily losing market share to rival auction site Taobao.com, a unit of Alibaba Group, which gained popularity in part by offering its service free.
Yahoo Inc., one of the first foreign Internet companies to enter China, in 1999, handed over its China operations and $1 billion to Alibaba Group in 2005, after years of struggling in China, in exchange for a roughly 40% stake in the Chinese company.
But China's strict regulation also plays a role. The government bars foreign companies from directly owning Internet content licenses, for example, requiring them to use local partners. Complying with Chinese censorship is complicated and politically risky, exposing companies to criticism from rights advocates back home.
Some companies have decided not to enter the market at all: Facebook representatives came to China more than two years ago to assess the possibility of entering the market, according to people familiar with the situation. But the company never established a Chinese site and today, its international Web site is blocked in China.
Facebook rival MySpace, a unit of News Corp., which also owns The Wall Street Journal, has a stake in a Chinese version called MySpace China, but it lags behind Chinese rival Renren.com and others.
John Palfrey, a professor at Harvard Law School who studies the Internet, says Google's China situation has broader relevance for how other technology companies manage their overseas operations.
'I think the Chinese market is the litmus test for that. Because it is the largest Internet market in the world, it is impossible for a large technology company to ignore,' Mr. Palfrey says. 'The outcome of this dispute is going to be enormously important for information technology companies elsewhere in the world operating in China.'
Google, in its Jan. 12 announcement on China, cited Beijing's tightening limits on expression and a series of cyber attacks on it and other foreign companies as reasons for its decision to stop filtering Google.cn. Part of its negotiations with Chinese authorities is to determine whether that move would affect its other businesses in China, which include selling advertisements on other Chinese Web sites through its AdSense service, as well as selling ads for its international Web site.
If the government forces Google.cn to close, as expected, Google could still offer Chinese-language search to Chinese users from offshore, as it did for several years before it started Google.cn in 2006. Users could also theoretically continue to use other Google services, such as Gmail, that are based outside China.
The government would have the ability to block access to those sites within China, but most analysts say Beijing wouldn't go that far because it would risk infuriating millions of users. But the government could make those sites less appealing by slowing or disrupting access intermittently, or it could block certain Google services selectively.
Already, before Google's January announcement, authorities were blocking its YouTube and Blogger sites.
In some cases, the government's interference with foreign Web sites creates clear advantages for local rivals. English-language Wikipedia, for example, a user-generated encyclopedia, has been blocked on and off for several years in China, while the Chinese version has been blocked almost entirely. As a result, Chinese Wikipedia has just 300,000 articles, compared with about 3.2 million articles on the English version. Meanwhile, Baidu's China-based user-generated encyclopedia, which it launched in 2006, has 2.1 million articles.
Loretta Chao / Ben Worthen
A person familiar with situation said on Saturday that Google is likely to take action within weeks.
Google and Chinese authorities have been in talks about the extent to which the U.S. Internet giant will be able to operate a business in China if it follows through on its pledge two months ago to stop following government censorship requirements on its Chinese site, Google.cn. Those talks increasingly appear deadlocked, and Google's hopes for being able to continue operating Google.cn unfiltered -- which were always thin -- have all but disappeared.
On Friday, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong, asked by a reporter about Google's plan to stop filtering results, said doing so would be 'irresponsible' and warned that the company would 'have to bear the consequences' if it violates China's rules.
His comments reinforced expectations that the authorities will force Google.cn to close if the company stops censoring it.
Google has about 36% of China's search revenue, according to Analysys International, a Beijing-based research firm, compared to 58% for local rival Baidu Inc. The U.S. company is one of the few foreign participants with significant market share. A combination of strict government regulation, intense competition from Chinese companies, and ineptitude on the part of the foreign companies themselves has meant that foreign Internet companies have either struggled to make inroads in China or never entered the market to begin with.
Google's closure of Google.cn would leave the Internet in China -- which has about 400 million users, more than any other country, and is adding about 250,000 more each day -- almost entirely dominated by local companies.
That helps the Chinese government's efforts to control information, because it can more easily control local companies, but it means foreign participation in one of the fastest-growing parts of China's economy will be limited, and it leaves Chinese users increasingly isolated.
Xiao Qiang, director of the China Internet Project at the University of California at Berkeley, says the closure of Google.cn could be seen as the beginning of a 'Chinternet' that is increasingly distinct from the global Internet.
'The danger for the Chinese Internet scene is that it becomes a less competitive place' without Google's participation, says Jeremy Goldkorn, founder of Danwei.org, a Web site about the media and the Internet in China. Google has spurred competition in China by doing things differently from local rivals, like notifying users when search results were being censored, he says.
A Google departure from the Chinese market would also send a message to other foreign companies that China is 'a very tough environment to run a business,' Mr. Goldkorn says. 'If Google leaves it's going to be something that any foreign company that considers opening up shop here will consider very seriously.'
A tiny handful of other foreign-owned Internet companies have attained meaningful shares of markets in China, though none as large as Google's. Amazon.com Inc.'s Chinese unit had 8% of the online business-to-consumer retail market in the fourth quarter, according to Analysys International. ELong Inc., a unit of Expedia Inc., had about 10% of China's online travel-booking market in the second quarter of last year. Microsoft Corp.'s MSN Messenger, which is run in China through a joint venture, has 4% of instant messaging users, compared to 77% for the QQ service from China's Tencent Holdings Ltd.
In part, the small role of foreigners is the result of competition from Chinese Internet companies that are often more adept at adapting products and services to Chinese tastes. EBay Inc. withdrew from the China market in 2006 after steadily losing market share to rival auction site Taobao.com, a unit of Alibaba Group, which gained popularity in part by offering its service free.
Yahoo Inc., one of the first foreign Internet companies to enter China, in 1999, handed over its China operations and $1 billion to Alibaba Group in 2005, after years of struggling in China, in exchange for a roughly 40% stake in the Chinese company.
But China's strict regulation also plays a role. The government bars foreign companies from directly owning Internet content licenses, for example, requiring them to use local partners. Complying with Chinese censorship is complicated and politically risky, exposing companies to criticism from rights advocates back home.
Some companies have decided not to enter the market at all: Facebook representatives came to China more than two years ago to assess the possibility of entering the market, according to people familiar with the situation. But the company never established a Chinese site and today, its international Web site is blocked in China.
Facebook rival MySpace, a unit of News Corp., which also owns The Wall Street Journal, has a stake in a Chinese version called MySpace China, but it lags behind Chinese rival Renren.com and others.
John Palfrey, a professor at Harvard Law School who studies the Internet, says Google's China situation has broader relevance for how other technology companies manage their overseas operations.
'I think the Chinese market is the litmus test for that. Because it is the largest Internet market in the world, it is impossible for a large technology company to ignore,' Mr. Palfrey says. 'The outcome of this dispute is going to be enormously important for information technology companies elsewhere in the world operating in China.'
Google, in its Jan. 12 announcement on China, cited Beijing's tightening limits on expression and a series of cyber attacks on it and other foreign companies as reasons for its decision to stop filtering Google.cn. Part of its negotiations with Chinese authorities is to determine whether that move would affect its other businesses in China, which include selling advertisements on other Chinese Web sites through its AdSense service, as well as selling ads for its international Web site.
If the government forces Google.cn to close, as expected, Google could still offer Chinese-language search to Chinese users from offshore, as it did for several years before it started Google.cn in 2006. Users could also theoretically continue to use other Google services, such as Gmail, that are based outside China.
The government would have the ability to block access to those sites within China, but most analysts say Beijing wouldn't go that far because it would risk infuriating millions of users. But the government could make those sites less appealing by slowing or disrupting access intermittently, or it could block certain Google services selectively.
Already, before Google's January announcement, authorities were blocking its YouTube and Blogger sites.
In some cases, the government's interference with foreign Web sites creates clear advantages for local rivals. English-language Wikipedia, for example, a user-generated encyclopedia, has been blocked on and off for several years in China, while the Chinese version has been blocked almost entirely. As a result, Chinese Wikipedia has just 300,000 articles, compared with about 3.2 million articles on the English version. Meanwhile, Baidu's China-based user-generated encyclopedia, which it launched in 2006, has 2.1 million articles.
Loretta Chao / Ben Worthen
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