不管是不是通过民选上台的，政治家们都很少能抵挡住展现一些民粹主义的诱惑。对中国普通民众来说，中国总理温家宝上周五在年度全国人大会议上向代表们所做的报告（相当于美国总统的国情咨文讲话），包含着两大信息。首先，短期内政府不会在汇率问题上让步，人民币汇率仍将保持"基本稳定"。其次，政府承诺改革户籍制度。在当前的户籍制度下，经济移民们在背井离乡之时，即牺牲了自己享受福利、教育和住房的权利。
在汇率问题上对华盛顿嗤之以鼻，将赢得中国国内民众的欢心，但这是一种空洞的姿态。中国很可能会在今年的某个时候，重启人民币兑美元逐步升值的进程。中国决策者为2010年设定了更为严格的通胀目标（将居民消费价格指数增幅指标从去年的4%降至3%），为了实现这一目标，他们可能需要动用一切手段――包括提高政策利率，当然，也包括让人民币升值。
第二个信息意义更为重大。去年，城镇居民收入是农村居民收入的3.3倍（为1978年改革开始以来的最大差距），增速则高出15%。
户籍制度至少是导致这种局面的一部分原因，它阻碍了劳动力的流动，起到了维持城乡薪酬差异的作用。要废除这一制度并非易事,将招致那些成功利用廉价移民的城市企业和地方政府的强烈抵制。改革将以渐进的方式展开，先从中小城市和小城镇开始。
然而，考虑到自己的十年任期只剩下两年多，温家宝已开始考虑自己的政治遗产。他在上周五报告中多次提到的核心主题，是构建一个"和谐社会"。汇率问题可以暂时放到一边，收入差距问题则必须面对。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031613
Whether they are elected by the people or not, politicians can rarely resist a bit of populism. Premier Wen Jiabao's report to lawmakers at the annual National People's Congress on Friday � China's equivalent of the US president's State of the Union address � included two big messages for the peanut gallery. First, no immediate yielding on the currency, which will be kept "basically stable". Second, a promise to reform the hukou system of residency permits, through which economic migrants sacrifice rights to welfare, education and housing when they leave their hometowns.
Two fingers to Washington on the renminbi will play well with domestic audiences, but it is an empty gesture. China is likely to resume gradual appreciation against the dollar at some point this year. Having set a tougher inflation target for 2010, aiming to keep the increase in consumer price inflation at 3 per cent, down from 4 per cent last year, policymakers will probably need to use the entire toolkit � including higher policy rates and, yes, a stronger currency � to achieve it.
The second message was more significant. Urban incomes last year were 3.3 times those in rural areas � the widest divergence since reforms began in 1978 � and were rising 15 per cent faster.
The hukou system, which helps to keep wages uneven by discouraging labour mobility, is at least partly to blame. Dismantling it will not be easy: urban companies and local governments that have successfully exploited cheaper migrants will fiercely resist. It will be done in increments, starting with towns and mid-sized cities.
However, with less than three years of his 10-year administration left, Mr Wen has an eye on his legacy. His central theme, evoked repeatedly on Friday, has been that of building an "harmonious society". The currency can keep, for now. The income gap cannot.
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