中国会不会允许人民币升值？在太平洋两岸，围绕人民币的辩论正激烈进行。中国政府会允许人民币兑美元再次升值吗？如果会，他们会让人民币一次性升值，还是允许人民币进入缓慢而有管理的升值通道，类似2005年至2008年的情况？
从经济上判断，这个问题似乎是直截了当的（即便也是微妙的）。中国生产者价格通胀正大幅上扬，这在一定程度上是人民币不必要的疲软所造成的进口价格高企所致。消费价格通胀也因食品价格高企而在加速，所以，让人民币升值可能是阻止过热的一个好方法。
中国已经采取了一些措施，试图为其于2008年末启动的大规模刺激方案的效应降温，让人民币升值也会对该目标作出明智的贡献。
问题是，不管是北京还是华盛顿，双方都没有从经济角度来考虑这个问题。相反，这件事成了一个政治纠纷。任何有关人民币的决定，最终都将是政治决定。美国国会正试图加大压力，辩称中国正赋予自己一个不公平的优势――通过压低人民币币值，夺走了美国的就业岗位。
美国政府正面临采取类似激进姿态的压力。从经济上来看，这个立场是有问题的。人民币走强将意味着美国进口成本高企。如果那意味着美国企业成本更高了，它们的应对方案可能是在国内削减成本。
但从政治上来看，这样的姿态甚至更有问题。从中国领导层在过去一周的言论来判断，如果允许人民币升值意味着向外国压力妥协，他们将不会允许这样的事情发生。如果美国在言论上保持克制，我们可以预期人民币将在数月内走强。如果美国变得更加咄咄逼人，结果可能恰恰相反。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031769
Will they or won't they? On both sides of the Pacific, debate over the Chinese currency is burning. Will the Chinese government allow the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar once more and, if so, will they make a one-off revaluation or allow a creeping, managed appreciation along the lines seen between 2005 and 2008?
Judged in economic terms, the question seems straightforward, if finely poised. Chinese producer price inflation is rising sharply, in part as a result of the higher import prices that an unnecessarily weak currency entails. Consumer price inflation is also rising, thanks to higher food prices, and so a stronger currency might be a good way to stop overheating.
It would make a sensible addition to the other measures that China has taken to try to cool the effects of the drastic stimulus it started in late 2008.
The problem is that the issue is not viewed in economic terms, in Beijing or in Washington. Instead, it is a political dispute. Any decision on the renminbi will ultimately be a political one. The US Congress is trying to step up the pressure, arguing that China is giving itself an unfair advantage of siphoning away US jobs by keeping its currency cheap.
The pressure is on the US administration to take a similarly aggressive stance. Economically, this position is questionable. A stronger Chinese currency would mean more expensive imports for the US. If that means higher costs for US companies, the response might be to cut costs at home.
But politically such an approach is even more questionable. Judging by the words of the Chinese leadership during the past week, the renminbi will not be allowed to appreciate if that means yielding to foreign pressure. If the US rhetoric remains restrained, we should expect a stronger Chinese currency within months. If the US gets more aggressive, then probably not.
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