比尔•希基(Bill Hickey)对美国制造业有着长远的认识。他在三十年前继承了拉帕姆-希基钢铁公司(Lapham-Hickey Steel)，自那以来，他在公司芝加哥总部的办公室里见证该行业化解了许多竞争威胁。拉帕姆-希基的客户包括约翰迪尔(John Deere)和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)。
但在过去十年里，他目睹大批美国制造商在中国的竞争之下走向衰亡。他说：“我们的客户，从汽车零部件制造商到厨房电器制造商，简直已不复存在。由于政界人士不明就里，我们正在见证美国制造业的空心化。”
希基把中国汇率政策视为在美国抢占市场份额的“重商主义计划”的组成部分。他表示：“如果他们的币值比真实市场价值低40%，他们就能提供比美国制造商更廉价的产品，而这正是美国制造业基础不断遭到削弱的原因。这是他们的计划。他们的政府本质上是在对此进行补贴。汇率政策起到了补贴和进口税的作用。”
美国政府应该如何回应希基这类制造商的担忧？在不断飙升的失业率的刺激下，围绕这一问题展开的、带有浓厚民粹主义色彩的辩论，再次在国会山的议程上占据了重要位置。最新的论战将于3月24日展开，届时中国汇率政策将是美国众议院筹款委员会(House of Representatives' Ways and Means Committee)听证会的焦点。然而有迹象表明，辩论的格局正在发生改变。制造商和他们在华盛顿的游说势力，已屡次强烈敦促美国政府对中国汇率政策采取更加强硬的立场。但突然之间，他们在美国商界找到了更多的盟友——这些商界人士以前考虑到中国的市场潜力，一直不太情愿挑战中国政府。之所以会出现这一转变，是因为美国商界在一系列问题上对中国日益感到不满。这些问题包括：中国在政府采购合同招标中向“自主创新”的本国公司倾斜，知识产权保护不力，此外还有汇率政策。
美国商会(US Chambers of Commerce)负责国际事务的副会长薄迈伦(Myron Brilliant)表示：“我不认为中国政府能够指望美国企业抵制和阻止（美国国会的）行动。”
这一转变已促使美国国会加大努力，在中国不允许人民币升值的情况下，通过对其实施惩罚措施的法案。美国财政部也面临越来越大的压力，要求它在一份定于4月15日发布的报告中把中国列为“汇率操纵国”——此举可能引发对从中国进口商品的制裁。
华盛顿智库——战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的查尔斯•弗里曼(Charles Freeman)表示，尽管许多公司可能对爆发贸易战的前景感到沮丧，但“愿意站出来（为美中经济关系）唱赞歌的人比以往要少”。
美国商界部分行业的人士仍极力主张谨慎行事。美国零售联合会(National Retail Federation)副主席兼国际贸易法律顾问埃里克•奥托(Erik Autor)表示，对美国零售商来说，中国既是一个采购地也是一个潜力较大的市场，“如果不谨慎处理与中国有关的贸易和经济问题，我们在这两方面都可能遭受损失”。
他说：“我们不可能一方面端着枪扫射，另一方面还觉得自己能够取得有益成果。”
如果中国真的调整汇率政策，有些从中国采购低成本零部件的公司还会受到不利影响。
食品加工机械与机场设备制造商JBT的首席执行官查尔斯•坎农(Charles Cannon)表示，如果人民币升值，他的公司的利润就将被压缩，这可能迫使他到别处寻购低成本零部件。坎农说：“我们或许不必离开中国，但我们的利润肯定会受影响。”
美国银行业似乎也不太情愿敦促对中国采取更加强硬的政策，尽管北京方面在金融危机后对它们所抱的怀疑态度，令其中许多银行感到失望。
华盛顿金融服务论坛(Financial Services Forum)负责政策事务的执行副总裁约翰•迪尔里(John Dearie)表示：“一个更加市场化的[人民币汇率]是很重要的，对中国来说尤其如此。但作为一项纠正贸易失衡的措施，汇率显然受到了过多的关注。为解决贸易失衡问题，一个有效得多的办法是，中国进一步向美国商品和服务开放市场。”
在芝加哥的希基表示，他相信北京方面会被迫改变其汇率政策立场。他说：“中国最大的客户国就是美国。我们必须建立一种互惠：如果一个伙伴把另一个伙伴吸干了，那么二者之间是不会存在什么良好关系的。”
译者/汪洋
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031899
Bill Hickey has a long perspective on US manufacturing. From his office at the Chicago headquarters of Lapham-Hickey Steel – whose customers include John Deere and Caterpillar – he has watched the sector cope with many competitive threats in the 30 years since he inherited the business.
But in the past decade, he has seen swaths of US manufacturing wither in the face of Chinese competition. “We've seen our customers from auto-parts manufacturers to kitchen appliance-makers just disappear,” he says. “We're seeing the hollowing out of American manufacturing because the politicians don't get it.”
Mr Hickey sees China's currency policy as part of “a mercantilist plan” to gain market share in the US. “If their currency is 40 per cent below its real market value, they can undercut US producers and that's what's eroding the manufacturing base here,” he says. “That's their plan. Their government is basically subsidising that. The currency policy acts as a subsidy and an import tax.”
Fuelled by a soaring unemployment rate and tinged with plenty of populism the debate over how the US should respond to the concerns of manufacturers such as Mr Hickey is again high on the agenda on Capitol Hill. The latest chapter will come today as China's exchange rate policy is the focus of a hearing before the House of Representatives' ways and means committee. But there are signs that the dynamics of debate are changing. Manufacturers and their lobbyists in Washington have frequently pushed hard for the US to take a tougher stance on China's currency policy. Suddenly, however, they have found more allies across a corporate America that, with an eye on China's potential as a market, had previously been less willing to take on Beijing. Behind it is rising disaffection with China on a range of issues, from its efforts to tilt government procurement contracts towards Chinese companies that practise “indigenous innovation” to its ineffectiveness at protecting intellectual property rights, to currency policy.
“I don't think the Chinese government can count on the American business community to push back and block action,” says Myron Brilliant, vice-president for international affairs at the US Chamber of Commerce.
This shift has given impetus to efforts in Congress to adopt legislation that would impose punitive measures on China if it does not let the renminbi appreciate. Pressure is also growing on the US Treasury to brand China a “currency manipulator” in a report due out on April 15 – a move that could lead to sanctions against Chinese imports.
Charles Freeman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, said even though many companies might be dismayed by the prospects of a trade war, there were “less people willing to stand up and sing the praises” of the US-China economic relationship.
Some parts of corporate America are still urging caution. Erik Autor, vice-president and international trade counsel at the National Retail Federation, says China is a sourcing location and good potential market for US retailers and “both of these could be jeopardised if we don't handle China trade and economic issues carefully”.
“We cannot come out guns blazing and feel that we can achieve something helpful,” he says.
Other companies that source low-cost components from China would also be adversely affected if the country changed its currency approach.
Charles Cannon, chief executive of JBT, which makes food-processing machinery and airport equipment, says his company's profits would be squeezed if the renminbi appreciated, potentially forcing him to search for low-cost components elsewhere. “We might not have to leave China but our margins would be affected,” he says.
US banks also seem reluctant to press for more aggressive policies towards China, even though many have been disappointed by Beijing's sceptical attitude towards them after the financial crisis.
“A more market based [renminbi] is important – mostly for China. But as a remedy for trade imbalances, the focus on the currency is demonstrably overstated,” says John Dearie, executive vice-president for policy at the Financial Services Forum in Washington. “The far more effective approach to tackle the trade imbalance is to further open China up to US goods and services.”
Back in Chicago, Mr Hickey says he believes Beijing will be forced to change its currency stance. “The largest customer that China has is the US,” he says. “There has to be reciprocity: there's no good relationship where one partner sucks the other one dry.”
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