正当农业市场的注意力集中在俄罗斯重大旱灾之际，软性大宗商品生产及消费领域的另一大变化正在暗中涌动：中国今年的收成平平，加之国人饮食习惯的改变，对中国传统上的"粮食自给自足"构成了很大压力，推高了价格，并促使中国大量进口粮食。
中国玉米和大豆进口量的增长，引发了这样的问题：随着国内需求上升，加上城市扩张导致农业用地减少，中国的粮食自给政策能否维系？目前，中国的玉米进口量创15年新高，而大豆进口量在5年间翻了一番。
中国国内市场上的玉米批发价格目前处于历史最高水平。行业官员预测，今年中国至少将进口100万吨玉米，远高于2008-09年区区5万吨的水平，并且是1994-1995年庄稼歉收以来的最大进口量。
今年中国的大米进口量也高于往年，中国正在越南及其它地区大举采购，令观察人士感到惊讶。
中国在海外采购其认为关乎国内粮食安全的重要农作物玉米和大米，以及大豆的进口激增，重新点燃了这样的担忧：中国的举动可能影响全球农业大宗商品市场。
"我们已看到中国对大豆的需求在国际市场上引起了多么重大的变化。假如他们对玉米的需求同样迅速上升……那显然会引起国际玉米市场的重大调整。"荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)驻伦敦的谷物分析师卢克•钱德勒(Luke Chandler)表示。
自从30年前开始经济改革以来，中国一直面对着末日预言般的警告：中国需求增长将导致全球性的粮食紧缺。事实证明，这些预言基本上都落空了。
不过，中国虽然成功实现了粮食自给自足，但依然得用有限的肥沃土地、稀缺的水资源以及相对落后的农业技术，来供养国民。
"中国的（粮食）自给率仍高达99%，但中国是个大国，而一般来说，国际农业市场很不活跃，所以当他们进入市场，尤其是一些新市场时，就可能造成很大影响。"斯坦福大学中国农业政策专家罗思高(Scott Rozelle)表示。
中国政府把粮食自给自足视为关系到国家安全的事务。为应对如何增加粮食供应方面的挑战，屡屡在农业上投入创纪录规模的资金。
全球最大的拖拉机及联合收割机制造商迪尔公司(Deere & Co)估计，今年中国政府在农业上投资1400亿元人民币（合205亿美元），较2004年的140亿美元增长了9倍。
国人饮食习惯的改变，是今年中国玉米和大豆进口增加的一个关键原因。随着中国人变得更加富裕，他们变得比以前多吃肉、少吃饭了。据美国农业部估计，尽管家庭收入不断增长，今年中国大米的绝对需求与10年前基本相当。
与此同时，玉米和大豆等用于喂养牲口的主要饲料消耗量激增，其中大豆消耗量10年来翻了一番。
中国官员对粮食进口骤增表现得不以为然。但上周，出于对玉米供应状况的担忧，中国政府采取了非同寻常的举措，一周内进行了两场玉米拍卖，以增加国内玉米供应。
目前市场正在争论：近期中国粮食（特别是玉米）进口激增，是预示着中国从此会长期在海外采购粮食，抑或只是中国局部地区天气状况不佳导致的一次性事件？1994-95年中国粮食进口也曾激增，但事后证明只是短期暂现象。
联合国粮农组织(FAO)驻罗马高级谷物经济学家阿布多尔雷扎•阿巴西安(Abdolreza Abbassian)表示："我们的确预计中国的玉米进口将逐渐增加。但考虑到中国的总体规模和消耗情况，进口量应相当有限，估计在500万-600万吨，至多1000万吨。"根据美国农业部的数据，去年中国玉米总消耗量为1.56亿吨。
还有一些人认为，中国今后基本上会保持粮食自给自足，尤其是如果农业政策能够成功提高庄稼收成的话。
华盛顿"国际食物政策研究所"(IFPRI)所长、中国农业专家樊胜根认为，未来数年内，"中国不会成为一个很大的玉米净进口国"。
樊胜根表示，农业政策，包括生物技术相关政策，对于今后的中国庄稼收成以及粮食进口需求，将起到关键的决定性作用。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034353
While agricultural markets focus on Russia's devastating drought, another large shift in soft commodity production and consumption is lurking in the background: China's mediocre crops this year, combined with a shift in dietary habits, have strained the country's traditional sufficiency in grains, leading to higher prices and large imports.
The rise in corn and soyabean imports has raised questions over whether Beijing's policy of grain self-sufficiency will be sustainable as demand rises and agricultural land shrinks under the advance of cities. Meanwhile, corn imports are at levels not seen in 15 years, and soyabean imports have doubled in the past five.
Wholesale corn prices in local markets in China are at record levels and industry officials forecast Beijing will import at least 1m tonnes of the grain this year, up from just 0.05m tonnes in 2008-09 and the highest since crop failures in 1994-1995.
China's rice imports have also been higher than usual this year, with the country surprising observers with big purchases in Vietnam and elsewhere.
The overseas purchases of corn and rice – staples that Beijing considers key for its food security – and the surge in imports of soyabeans have revived fears over Beijing's potential to influence global agricultural commodities markets.
"We've seen what a significant change China's demand for soyabeans has had on the world market," says Luke Chandler, grain analyst at Rabobank in London. "If their demand for corn accelerates as quickly . . . then obviously that will have a significant recalibration on the world corn market."
Ever since China began economic reforms 30 years ago, it has faced apocalyptic warnings that its increasing demand would lead to food shortages worldwide. By and large, these warnings have turned out to be wide of the mark.
Yet in spite of its success at achieving self-sufficiency in grains, Beijing still has to feed its population with limited fertile land, scarce water and relatively basic agricultural technologies.
"China's [food] self-sufficiency rate is still 99 per cent, but China is a huge country, and global agricultural markets, in general, are very thin," says Scott Rozelle, an expert on Chinese agricultural policy at Stanford University. "So when they move into markets, especially new markets, they can have a big impact."
The Chinese government considers grain self-sufficiency a matter of national security and has responded to the challenges of boosting supplies by ploughing record amounts of money into agriculture.
According to estimates by Deere & Co, the world's largest manufacturer of tractors and combines, Beijing has increased its spending on farming to Rmb140bn ($20.5bn) up ten-fold from Rmb14bn in 2004.
A key driver for the rising corn and soyabean imports this year has been a dietary shift. As Chinese become wealthier, they are eating more meat and less rice. Absolute rice demand in China is basically at the same level this year as it was 10 years ago, according to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture, in spite of rising family incomes.
Meanwhile, consumption of key feedstocks such as corn and soyabeans used to fatten livestock have jumped — soyabean consumption has doubled in the past 10 years.
Officials have downplayed China's sudden surge in imports, but last week concerns over corn availability prompted the government to take the unusual step of holding two corn auctions to increase the country's corn supply.
The market is now debating whether recent corn imports, in particular, signal a permanent move towards overseas purchases or a one-off event due to poor weather in some of China's regions. In 1994-95 a similar surge in imports by China proved to be short-lived.
"We do expect that China's corn imports will gradually increase," says Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior grain economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome. "But given its overall size and consumption, the imports should be very modest, ranging from 5m-6m to maximum 10m tonnes China's total corn consumption last year was 156m tonnes, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Others believe that China will be mostly self-sufficient in future, especially if agricultural policies succeed in increasing crop yields.
"China will not be a significant net importer of maize" in coming years, says Shenggen Fan, director general of the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute and an expert on Chinese agriculture.
Agricultural policies, including biotechnology policies, will be crucial in determining China's future crop yields and thus crop import demand, he says.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034353/en
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