基金经理表示，涉足新兴市场的投资者，若被当今第二大经济体中国所吸引，但又不知从哪里入手，应当考虑那些有望从中国居民收入增长中获益最大的企业和行业。
正如Neptune旗下两只中国基金的联席经理道格拉斯•特恩布尔(Douglas Turnbull)所言："中国经济的未来，在于利用中国新兴中产阶层能够释放的消费潜力。即使其出口市场放缓，中国也另有出路。"
对于像他这样的基金经理来说，这场争论的焦点在于：是购买在北京上海设有业务的西方企业的股票，还是购买中国本土企业的股票？基金经理们意见不一。
一个阵营认为，像中国移动(China Mobile)这样的中国企业，有能力招架来自外国企业的竞争。以2010年预期盈利计算，中移动目前的市盈率是12.6倍。
Jupiter"中国基金"的经理菲利普•埃尔曼(Philip Ehrmann)表示："中国企业正在加紧步伐，加大投入。有关中国只靠出口的说法纯属虚构。现实的说法是他们拥有庞大的贸易顺差。"
他指出，许多中国企业的股价都比同行便宜——不管是东方还是西方的同行。他特意提到一次性医疗用品市场。美国注射器、针头及其它医疗用品制造商BD公司(Becton Dickinson)仍把持着中国四分之三的市场，但中国政府正拟鼓励本土企业与之抗衡。
埃尔曼表示："假如中国企业能够开始扩大自身的市场占有率，那么不管对外国企业还是对国内企业来说，都是好兆头。"
Matrix亚洲基金经理鲁珀特•福斯特(Rupert Foster)也指出，与美国、日本和韩国同行相比，中国企业还拥有第二个优势，即他们能够构建更广阔的产品经销网络。他说，在打通全国饮料销售渠道方面，中国的可乐生产商能"彻底击败"可口可乐公司(Coca-Cola)；而中国小城市根本没有三星(Samsung)和夏普(Sharp)的电视机出售。福斯特表示："许多日韩企业被认为是中国市场上的大牌——其实他们不是。中国竞争对手在向他们进攻。" 他还表示，中国企业的股本回报率(ROE)和经营利润率也高得"惊人"。例如，中国婴幼儿奶粉生产商澳优(Ausnutria)的经营利润率高达30%。
埃尔曼劝投资者别直接买进在香港上市的中小企业股票，认为买基金更安全。他说："有些比较让人感兴趣的领域和机会是相当缺乏流动性的。对于这些，人们不宜自己炒作。"
他购入的两只中国股票是山东威高(Shandong Weigao)和中国自动化(China Automation)，前者是一家医疗设备集团，正欲与美国BD公司一较高低，后者为中国铁路生产信号系统。
一段时间内，西方经济体的增长大概仍将欲振乏力。这种可能性也促使投资公司Ashburton负责资产配置策略的经理特里斯坦•汉森(Tristan Hanson)增加中国股票的权重，减少日本和美国股票的权重。
汉森表示："发达国家的结构性经济问题比中国严重得多。中国当局不太可能进一步大力收紧政策，就此而言，人们对中国经济会大幅放缓的担心实属过虑。很长一段时间以来，中国股市一直表现不佳，目前预期市盈率为13倍，从长期增长前景来看，并不算贵。"
目前，"摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数"（MSCI China Index，追踪在中国内地及香港上市的股票走势）的年预期市盈率为12.3倍，与美国标普500指数(S&P 500)和英国富时250指数(FTSE 250)相比偏贵，后两个指数的预期市盈率分别为11.9倍和11.5倍。
汉森表示："从策略上来讲，我们仍看好股票，但我们承认风险依然存在，而且波动性可能依然很高。因此我们以持有股票看跌期权的形式，加大了下行风险防护力度。这种保护策略既可防范下行风险，也能继续保持多头，以备反弹行情持续。"
Thurleigh Investment Managers的投资组合经理戴维•利文斯通(David Livingston)近期访问过中国，他表示，有关中国房地产市场处于"泡沫"之中的说法，是言过其辞。他说："大部分按揭都使用了大量现金，那些基于信用借款的按揭，首付比率在25-50%之间。"
"中国面临的真正挑战，是能否从一个东部沿海地区占主导地位的出口国家，成功转变为一个更加均衡、内需导向的国家。"
仅专注中国内地及周边市场的"中国基金"投资回报一直很强劲。
咨询公司Ashcourt Rowan研究主管蒂姆•考克里尔(Tim Cockerill)青睐首域投资(First State)旗下管理着4.78亿英镑资产的"大中华基金"(Greater China fund)，该基金持有香港、内地及台湾的72只股票，5年投资回报率接近160%。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034318
Investors in emerging markets who are enticed towards China, now the world's second-largest economy, but who do not know where to start, should think about the companies and sectors that will profit most from the rising incomes of the Chinese, say fund managers .
As Douglas Turnbull, co-manager of Neptune's two China funds, sees it: "The future of the Chinese economy is about harnessing the spending potential the emerging middle class in China can unleash . Even if its export market slows up, China has another option."
For managers like him, the debate is whether to buy shares in western companies with operations in Beijing and Shanghai, or in Chinese companies themselves. Opinions differ.
In one camp are those managers who claim that Chinese companies such as China Mobile – which trades at 12.6 times 2010 earnings – are capable of fending off competition from foreign companies.
"Chinese companies are stepping up and raising their game," says Philip Ehrmann, manager of Jupiter's China Fund. "It's a myth that China is just about exports. The reality is they have a huge trade surplus."
He points out that a number of Chinese companies trade at a discount to their rivals in both the West and the East. He cites the market for disposable healthcare products. Becton Dickinson, a US manufacturer of syringes, needles and other medical products, still controls three quarters of sales in China, but Beijing is looking to encourage local companies to compete against it.
"If Chinese companies can begin to grow their market share, it bodes well, not just for foreign companies but also domestic players," Ehrmann says.
Rupert Foster, manager of Matrix's Asia fund, meanwhile, claims that a second advantage Chinese companies have over their US, Japanese and Korean rivals is their ability to distribute products more widely. Chinese cola makers "annihilate" Coca-Cola when it comes to finding ways to sell drinks around the country, he says. And Samsung and Sharp televisions are not sold in smaller cities in China, he notes. According to Foster: "A number of Japanese and Korean companies are thought to be great China plays – but they're really not. They get attacked by Chinese competitors." Chinese companies' returns on equity and operating margins are also "surprisingly" high, according to Foster. Ausnutria, the Chinese babyfood manufacturer, has operating margins of 30 per cent, for example.
Ehrmann discourages investors from taking direct stakes in the mid and small-cap companies listed in Hong Kong, as he believes the fund route is safer. "Some of the more interesting areas and opportunities are quite illiquid," he says. "People shouldn't go out and buy into them themselves."
Two holdings he has bought are Shandong Weigao, a medical device group attempting to go toe-to- toe with Becton Dickinson, and China Automation, which makes signal systems for China's railways.
The possibility that growth in western economies will remain sluggish for some time has also encouraged Tristan Hanson, manager of asset allocation and strategy with the investment house Ashburton, to increase equity weightings in China and reduce exposure to Japan and the US.
"Structural economic problems are far more severe in the developed world than in China," says Hanson. "The Chinese authorities are unlikely to tighten policy much further and therefore fears of a major slowdown in China are overdone. Following a long period of under- performance, Chinese equities are not expensive on 13 times forward earnings given long-term growth prospects."
At present, the MSCI China Index, which tracks stocks listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, trades on 12.3 times 12-month forward earnings. So, it is more expensive than the S&P 500, the US index, which trades at 11.9 times forward earnings and the FTSE 250, which is at 11.5 times forward earnings.
"While we remain strategically positive on equities, we acknowledge risks remain and that volatility is likely to remain high," Hanson says. "We therefore added downside protection on the back of strength in the form of equity put options. This insurance policy provides protection against downside risk while maintaining long exposure should the rally continue."
But suggestions that the Chinese property market is in "bubble" territory are exaggerated, says David Livingston, a portfolio manager with Thurleigh Investment Managers who recently returned from a visit there. "Most mortgages use significant cash and those based on credit borrowing have a 25 to 50 per cent down payment rate," he says.
"The real challenge for China is to see whether it can successfully transition from an export, east-coast dominated country to a more balanced domestic consumer-orientated nation."
Returns from China funds, focused only on the mainland and neighbouring markets, have been strong.
Tim Cockerill, head of research with the advisory firm Ashcourt Rowan, favours First State's £478m Greater China fund, which has 72 holdings spread across Hong Kong, mainland China and Taiwain and returned close to 160 per cent over five years.
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