本
周糟糕的经济数据可能会让你感到疑惑。我从不作预测。这是愚蠢的行为。当然，现在我也不会这么做。
Associated Press
1929年10月24日，华尔街股市暴跌造成大恐慌。
但是，今年夏天太多的人过于乐观了，所以在这里我要提10条需要提高警惕的理由。
1.市场价格已经很高。根据耶鲁大学（Yale University）经济学教授罗伯特•席勒（Robert Shiller）采集的数据，周期调整后市盈率约为20，大大高于历史平均值──16左右。该比率是一个有效的长期收益预测指标。估值对投资者来说比其它事重要得多。如果你承担风险能得到优厚回报，那么承担风险是有意义的。但如果你得不到呢？
2.联储（Fed）开始紧张了。本周，联储警告说经济已经疲软，并亮出了对抗通货紧缩的最新武器：用出售抵押贷款的收入购买国债。这应该能使长期利率下降。对抵押贷款借款人来说，这是个大好消息。但当道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）已经超过10000点时，这可不是人们想听到的消息。
3.太多人过于乐观。根据美国积极投资经理协会（National Association of Active Investment Managers）的最新调查，积极基金经理们预期市场将继续攀高。投资人情报（Investors Intelligence）的每周调查报告称，财务顾问们也有相同的预期。这正是需要小心谨慎的原因。当其它所有人都持悲观态度时，就到了买入的时候了──这话反过来说也可能也是对的。
4.通货紧缩已经出现。消费者价格指数已连续三个月下降。最糟糕的是，它也影响到了工资。据美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）报告，上个季度美国工人的实际小时工资比去年同期降低了0.7%。联储会担心也就不足为奇了。在通货紧缩时期，工资、公司收入、住房及投资的美元价值都可能缩水。但债务却停留在原有规模。这使通货紧缩成为一个恶性陷阱，尤其是当人们欠下太多钱时。
5.人们仍然欠了太多的钱。家庭、企业、州政府、地方政府，当然还有联邦政府都欠下了许多糊涂债。据联储称，美国债务总额──即便不包括金融部门债务──基本是10年前的两倍：现在是35万亿美元，而10年前是18万亿美元。家庭债务负担几乎没有减轻；和去年创纪录的高峰值相比，家庭债务仅下降了3%，这是10年前家庭债务水平的两倍。
6.就业形势比他们说的糟得多。忘掉9.5%的“官方”失业率吧。其它数据？来看看这个吧。现在，20岁以上的成年人中只有61%有工作。这是20世纪80年代初以来的最低水平──当时许多女性选择留在家中，因而使就业率下降。现在，20岁以上的男性就业率为66.9%，上世纪50年代这个数字约为85%，当然由于现在在世的老年人更多，这个数字要打点折扣。而且，现在许多有工作的人只是在做兼职工作，因此目前20岁以上的男性其实只有59%有全职工作。这种情况乐观吗？
（今天的加分题：如果一名被裁掉的建筑承包商有两个孩子、一笔按揭房贷和一笔汽车贷款，他每周在当地的加油站上三个夜班，那么他能买多少个iPad作为圣诞礼物？）
7.住房问题仍然严重。上个月，美国房产止赎率再次上升。RealtyTrac的止赎问题专家称，7月份银行又接管了93,000套住房。该数字比6月份上升了9%，仅稍低于5月份的历史最高水平。RealtyTrac称，今年的止赎房产数量直指100万。由于连锁反应使住宅价格下降，这自然也会伤害到所有未处于止赎状态的房屋所有者。见上文对通货紧缩的分析（第4条）。
8.劳工节将近。唉呀，华尔街似乎总是在9－10月崩溃。想想2008年吧。想想1987年吧。想想1929年吧。从统计上讲，的确是存在着“9月效应”。市场在9月的平均表现差于其它月份。没有人真正知道原因。有人甚至将其归咎于白昼缩短带来的心理影响。但这已经产生了自我强化的效应：人们害怕9月，所以在9月抛售。
9.华盛顿正陷入政治僵局。选举季已经开始了。预计11月民主党在参众两院都会失去一些席位。（根据爱尔兰都柏林InTrade博彩公司开出的赌盘，共和党有62%的机会掌握众议院的控制权。）两党的政治对话看来已经失败，打破了所有可能的补救希望，因此让我们不要寄希望于能达成有关任何实质问题的“两党”协议。你认为这是件好事吗？正如Gluskin Sheff投资公司的戴维斯•罗森堡（Davis Rosenberg）本周所指出的，政治僵局只在“没有什么需要补救”时对投资者来说是件好事。他指出，现在我们需要强有力的领导。但是目前是不会出现的。
10.其它各类指标都闪起了警示灯。尽管美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的制造业指数仍为正值，但在7月份却再次走弱。供应管理协会的新订单指数也是如此。贸易赤字扩大了，而第二季度GDP增幅远低于最初预想。美国经济周期研究所（ECRI）每周领先指数（Weekly Leading Index）的警示灯已经亮起数周了（尽管最近的指标看来有所好转）。6月份的欧洲工业产值显著低于预期。即使是高速发展的中国经济也放慢了速度。科技行业的领头羊思科公司（Cisco Systems）已经预先发出了警告信号。单独来看，以上信号也许不能说明什么问题。但综合来看，就让我疑惑了。在这种环境下，如果股价很低，我可能很乐意购买股票。但如果股价很高，我可能就不那么愿意买了。原因见上文第1条。
Brett Arends
（编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家，他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应的投资决定。）
1.市场价格已经很高。根据耶鲁大学（Yale University）经济学教授罗伯特•席勒（Robert Shiller）采集的数据，周期调整后市盈率约为20，大大高于历史平均值──16左右。该比率是一个有效的长期收益预测指标。估值对投资者来说比其它事重要得多。如果你承担风险能得到优厚回报，那么承担风险是有意义的。但如果你得不到呢？
2.联储（Fed）开始紧张了。本周，联储警告说经济已经疲软，并亮出了对抗通货紧缩的最新武器：用出售抵押贷款的收入购买国债。这应该能使长期利率下降。对抵押贷款借款人来说，这是个大好消息。但当道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）已经超过10000点时，这可不是人们想听到的消息。
3.太多人过于乐观。根据美国积极投资经理协会（National Association of Active Investment Managers）的最新调查，积极基金经理们预期市场将继续攀高。投资人情报（Investors Intelligence）的每周调查报告称，财务顾问们也有相同的预期。这正是需要小心谨慎的原因。当其它所有人都持悲观态度时，就到了买入的时候了──这话反过来说也可能也是对的。
4.通货紧缩已经出现。消费者价格指数已连续三个月下降。最糟糕的是，它也影响到了工资。据美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）报告，上个季度美国工人的实际小时工资比去年同期降低了0.7%。联储会担心也就不足为奇了。在通货紧缩时期，工资、公司收入、住房及投资的美元价值都可能缩水。但债务却停留在原有规模。这使通货紧缩成为一个恶性陷阱，尤其是当人们欠下太多钱时。
5.人们仍然欠了太多的钱。家庭、企业、州政府、地方政府，当然还有联邦政府都欠下了许多糊涂债。据联储称，美国债务总额──即便不包括金融部门债务──基本是10年前的两倍：现在是35万亿美元，而10年前是18万亿美元。家庭债务负担几乎没有减轻；和去年创纪录的高峰值相比，家庭债务仅下降了3%，这是10年前家庭债务水平的两倍。
6.就业形势比他们说的糟得多。忘掉9.5%的“官方”失业率吧。其它数据？来看看这个吧。现在，20岁以上的成年人中只有61%有工作。这是20世纪80年代初以来的最低水平──当时许多女性选择留在家中，因而使就业率下降。现在，20岁以上的男性就业率为66.9%，上世纪50年代这个数字约为85%，当然由于现在在世的老年人更多，这个数字要打点折扣。而且，现在许多有工作的人只是在做兼职工作，因此目前20岁以上的男性其实只有59%有全职工作。这种情况乐观吗？
（今天的加分题：如果一名被裁掉的建筑承包商有两个孩子、一笔按揭房贷和一笔汽车贷款，他每周在当地的加油站上三个夜班，那么他能买多少个iPad作为圣诞礼物？）
7.住房问题仍然严重。上个月，美国房产止赎率再次上升。RealtyTrac的止赎问题专家称，7月份银行又接管了93,000套住房。该数字比6月份上升了9%，仅稍低于5月份的历史最高水平。RealtyTrac称，今年的止赎房产数量直指100万。由于连锁反应使住宅价格下降，这自然也会伤害到所有未处于止赎状态的房屋所有者。见上文对通货紧缩的分析（第4条）。
8.劳工节将近。唉呀，华尔街似乎总是在9－10月崩溃。想想2008年吧。想想1987年吧。想想1929年吧。从统计上讲，的确是存在着“9月效应”。市场在9月的平均表现差于其它月份。没有人真正知道原因。有人甚至将其归咎于白昼缩短带来的心理影响。但这已经产生了自我强化的效应：人们害怕9月，所以在9月抛售。
9.华盛顿正陷入政治僵局。选举季已经开始了。预计11月民主党在参众两院都会失去一些席位。（根据爱尔兰都柏林InTrade博彩公司开出的赌盘，共和党有62%的机会掌握众议院的控制权。）两党的政治对话看来已经失败，打破了所有可能的补救希望，因此让我们不要寄希望于能达成有关任何实质问题的“两党”协议。你认为这是件好事吗？正如Gluskin Sheff投资公司的戴维斯•罗森堡（Davis Rosenberg）本周所指出的，政治僵局只在“没有什么需要补救”时对投资者来说是件好事。他指出，现在我们需要强有力的领导。但是目前是不会出现的。
10.其它各类指标都闪起了警示灯。尽管美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的制造业指数仍为正值，但在7月份却再次走弱。供应管理协会的新订单指数也是如此。贸易赤字扩大了，而第二季度GDP增幅远低于最初预想。美国经济周期研究所（ECRI）每周领先指数（Weekly Leading Index）的警示灯已经亮起数周了（尽管最近的指标看来有所好转）。6月份的欧洲工业产值显著低于预期。即使是高速发展的中国经济也放慢了速度。科技行业的领头羊思科公司（Cisco Systems）已经预先发出了警告信号。单独来看，以上信号也许不能说明什么问题。但综合来看，就让我疑惑了。在这种环境下，如果股价很低，我可能很乐意购买股票。但如果股价很高，我可能就不那么愿意买了。原因见上文第1条。
Brett Arends
（编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家，他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应的投资决定。）
Could Wall Street be about to crash again?
This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder.
I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. And I'm certainly not doing so now.
But way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out.
1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not?
2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.
3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.
4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it's affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money.
5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt-even excluding the financial sector-is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared to $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it's fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it twice the level of a decade ago.
6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the 'official' unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s-when many women stayed at home through choice, driving the numbers down. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, though allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working right now can only find part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish?
(Today's bonus question: If a laid-off contractor with two kids, a mortgage and a car loan is working three night shifts a week at his local gas station, how many iPads can he buy for Christmas?)
7. Housing remains a disaster. Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took over another 93,000 homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of 9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple effects hurt all those homeowners not in foreclosure, by driving down prices. See deflation (No. 4) above.
8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a 'September effect.' The market, on average, has done worse in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell.
9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. Election season has already begun. And the Democrats are expected to lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker in Dublin, Ireland, gives the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any 'bipartisan' agreements on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff pointed out this week, gridlock is only a good thing for investors 'when nothing needs fixing.' Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen.
10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while still positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks (though the most recent signals have looked somewhat better). Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're expensive. See No. 1 above.
Brett Arends
This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder.
I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. And I'm certainly not doing so now.
But way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out.
1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not?
2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.
3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.
4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it's affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money.
5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt-even excluding the financial sector-is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared to $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it's fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it twice the level of a decade ago.
6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the 'official' unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s-when many women stayed at home through choice, driving the numbers down. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, though allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working right now can only find part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish?
(Today's bonus question: If a laid-off contractor with two kids, a mortgage and a car loan is working three night shifts a week at his local gas station, how many iPads can he buy for Christmas?)
7. Housing remains a disaster. Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took over another 93,000 homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of 9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple effects hurt all those homeowners not in foreclosure, by driving down prices. See deflation (No. 4) above.
8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a 'September effect.' The market, on average, has done worse in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell.
9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. Election season has already begun. And the Democrats are expected to lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker in Dublin, Ireland, gives the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any 'bipartisan' agreements on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff pointed out this week, gridlock is only a good thing for investors 'when nothing needs fixing.' Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen.
10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while still positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks (though the most recent signals have looked somewhat better). Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're expensive. See No. 1 above.
Brett Arends
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