在
周五开幕的全国人大会议上，中国领导人所面临的挑战之一是在无损于公众信心的情况下向全国解释政府将如何逐步撤出经济刺激计划。总理温家宝在向全国人大发表政府工作报告时重申了8%的经济增速目标。在过去几年中中国一直坚守这一图腾般的经济增长目标，尽管实际增速有着很大的波动。
对经济问题的讨论可能将主导本次人大会议议程。中国一年一度的人大会议聚齐约3000名代表，商讨、批准中国最高领导层制定的政策。作为中国政治日程的重中之重，此次为期10天人大会议的召开正值越来越多的公众对住房价格高企感到担忧、且对全球经济形势感到紧张之际。
分析师基本上一致认为中国迫切需要给通过放贷实现的经济刺激计划降降温。去年中国银行业的放贷规模之大已然令人担心未来中国金融体系能否健康发展，而且一些大城市出现的房产泡沫正呈蔓延之势。
中国是全球增长最快的主要经济体，温家宝的发言将力求进一步阐明它将走向何方。近几个月来，温家宝格外频繁地出现在公众面前，重提他的名言"信心比黄金和货币更重要"，并重申政府承诺支持经济增长。但是，他也承认刺激计划使用过度，并指出需要找到其他办法来保持经济增长。
中国领导人周三齐聚北京
经济刺激的初期提振作用正在消退，但很多经济学家都认为民营企业尚未做好准备，无法接棒成为中国经济增长的引擎。
中国经济的最大亮点是房地产市场的繁荣，但随着房价飙升，这又成了公众发泄不满的众矢之的，迫使政府采取控制措施。中国政府迄今为止所采取的措施已让金融市场饱受折腾。今年上证综指累计跌幅接近8%；近几个月，中国收紧流动性的小幅度动作就曾多次让全球市场出现不稳。
Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images
全国两会第三天
出现如此显著变化的原因之一在于投资者很难追踪中国的政策变化。自去年下半年以来，中国政府就已经在撤回经济刺激措施。
然而，多数早期行动都是通过调整监管措施或私下而非公开地向银行传达指令的形式开展的。直到今年1月份，央行才动用了一个更为透明和公开的工具，即提高商业银行的存款准备金率。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中国经济学家王庆表示，当决策者思考政策沟通的问题时，他们真正考虑的是对实体经济的影响，而不是对金融市场的影响。他说，这是其策略沟通并不那么有效的原因之一。
Andrew Batson
（更新完成）
China's leaders, kicking off the annual legislative session Friday, face the challenge of how to explain to the nation the gradual withdrawal of an enormous stimulus program without denting public confidence.
When Premier Wen Jiabao delivers his government work report, which is the equivalent of a State of the Union address, to the National People's Congress Friday, he is widely expected to reaffirm the government's totemic 8% target for economic expansion, which it has maintained for several years despite significant fluctuations in actual growth rates. Wen will also reaffirm a commitment to policies that support expansion, though that pledge is vague enough to give him considerable leeway to shift course.
Discussion of the economy is likely to dominate this year's session of the congress, a largely ceremonial gathering of nearly 3,000 delegates who discuss and ratify the top leadership's policies. The 10-day meeting, the highlight of the political calendar, takes place amid growing public concern about high local housing prices and nervousness about the global economy.
Though China isn't now facing the kind of market worries about government debt that are bedeviling Europe, few analysts disagree that China urgently needs to cool down its credit-fueled stimulus. The scale of last year's bank lending has raised worries about the future health of the financial system, and signs of property bubbles in major cities are spreading.
Wen's speech marks his latest effort to articulate where the world's fastest-growing major economy is headed. The premier has been in the public eye unusually often in recent months, repeating his mantra that 'confidence is more important than money or gold' and affirming the government's commitment to supporting the economy. But he has also acknowledged excesses in the stimulus program and spoken of the need to find other ways to keep growth going.
'Last year, Beijing had a simple strategy and a simple message: lend as much money as necessary to keep growth at 8%. This year, the job is trickier; it has to reduce lending, but not so much that growth stalls,' said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of research firm Dragonomics in Beijing. 'It will be hard to do that without damaging business and consumer confidence.'
The government is now trying to strike a tricky balance, reflecting an awkward transition under way in China's economy. The initial boost from the stimulus is already fading, but many economists doubt that private-sector businesses are ready to take over as a growth driver. The brightest spot in the Chinese economy is the booming property market, and that has become a lightning rod for public discontent as housing prices surge, pushing the government to rein things in.
The government's moves so far have sent financial markets on a rocky ride. Shanghai's benchmark stock market index has fallen nearly 8% this year, and small moves by China to tighten liquidity have sent global markets reeling several times in recent months.
Overseas investors have become ever more pessimistic on China. In a monthly survey of fund managers by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, the net percentage of respondents expecting stronger Chinese growth over the next 12 months (the share of those who do, minus the share of those who don't) fell to 7% in February from 51% in January.
Such big swings happen in part because it is so difficult for investors to track China's policy changes. The government has been ratcheting back the stimulus since the second half of last year, but most early moves came through regulatory changes and instructions to banks that were communicated privately rather than publicly announced.
It wasn't until January that the central bank used a more transparent and public tool, raising the share of deposits that commercial banks must keep on reserve.
'When policy makers think about communicating policy, they really think about its impact on the real economy, rather than thinking about its impact on financial markets,' said Wang Oing, China economist for Morgan Stanley. 'That's one of the reasons the communications strategy is not that effective,' and overseas investors are often confused by China's policy moves, he said.
So far, the government's intended audience among the country's households and businesses seems less fazed than financial markets. China's official consumer-confidence index rose every month from July to December, the most recent month for which data are available. The job market has improved to the point where manufacturers in the south complain they can't find enough workers.
With inflation a growing worry, the government needs to pay particular attention to the effect its words have on ordinary people's expectations of future prices, chief bank regulator Liu Mingkang said this week. 'We need to improve policy statements and information disclosure, and release the necessary policy signals in a timely manner to guide the public to form a realistic judgment,' Liu said.
Andrew Batson
When Premier Wen Jiabao delivers his government work report, which is the equivalent of a State of the Union address, to the National People's Congress Friday, he is widely expected to reaffirm the government's totemic 8% target for economic expansion, which it has maintained for several years despite significant fluctuations in actual growth rates. Wen will also reaffirm a commitment to policies that support expansion, though that pledge is vague enough to give him considerable leeway to shift course.
Discussion of the economy is likely to dominate this year's session of the congress, a largely ceremonial gathering of nearly 3,000 delegates who discuss and ratify the top leadership's policies. The 10-day meeting, the highlight of the political calendar, takes place amid growing public concern about high local housing prices and nervousness about the global economy.
Though China isn't now facing the kind of market worries about government debt that are bedeviling Europe, few analysts disagree that China urgently needs to cool down its credit-fueled stimulus. The scale of last year's bank lending has raised worries about the future health of the financial system, and signs of property bubbles in major cities are spreading.
Wen's speech marks his latest effort to articulate where the world's fastest-growing major economy is headed. The premier has been in the public eye unusually often in recent months, repeating his mantra that 'confidence is more important than money or gold' and affirming the government's commitment to supporting the economy. But he has also acknowledged excesses in the stimulus program and spoken of the need to find other ways to keep growth going.
'Last year, Beijing had a simple strategy and a simple message: lend as much money as necessary to keep growth at 8%. This year, the job is trickier; it has to reduce lending, but not so much that growth stalls,' said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of research firm Dragonomics in Beijing. 'It will be hard to do that without damaging business and consumer confidence.'
The government is now trying to strike a tricky balance, reflecting an awkward transition under way in China's economy. The initial boost from the stimulus is already fading, but many economists doubt that private-sector businesses are ready to take over as a growth driver. The brightest spot in the Chinese economy is the booming property market, and that has become a lightning rod for public discontent as housing prices surge, pushing the government to rein things in.
The government's moves so far have sent financial markets on a rocky ride. Shanghai's benchmark stock market index has fallen nearly 8% this year, and small moves by China to tighten liquidity have sent global markets reeling several times in recent months.
Overseas investors have become ever more pessimistic on China. In a monthly survey of fund managers by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, the net percentage of respondents expecting stronger Chinese growth over the next 12 months (the share of those who do, minus the share of those who don't) fell to 7% in February from 51% in January.
Such big swings happen in part because it is so difficult for investors to track China's policy changes. The government has been ratcheting back the stimulus since the second half of last year, but most early moves came through regulatory changes and instructions to banks that were communicated privately rather than publicly announced.
It wasn't until January that the central bank used a more transparent and public tool, raising the share of deposits that commercial banks must keep on reserve.
'When policy makers think about communicating policy, they really think about its impact on the real economy, rather than thinking about its impact on financial markets,' said Wang Oing, China economist for Morgan Stanley. 'That's one of the reasons the communications strategy is not that effective,' and overseas investors are often confused by China's policy moves, he said.
So far, the government's intended audience among the country's households and businesses seems less fazed than financial markets. China's official consumer-confidence index rose every month from July to December, the most recent month for which data are available. The job market has improved to the point where manufacturers in the south complain they can't find enough workers.
With inflation a growing worry, the government needs to pay particular attention to the effect its words have on ordinary people's expectations of future prices, chief bank regulator Liu Mingkang said this week. 'We need to improve policy statements and information disclosure, and release the necessary policy signals in a timely manner to guide the public to form a realistic judgment,' Liu said.
Andrew Batson
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