2010年8月17日

中国严控稀土市场得不偿失 China Could Undermine Opportunity

国对其稀土资源呵护有加,但它对这些矿产的严密看管有可能扰乱市场,造成北京自己也不愿意看到的后果。

稀土是对17种元素的统称,它们或具有强大的磁力,或能够提升金属的耐高温能力。这些元素对于混合动力车的电池和风力涡轮机等高科技产品至关重要,但最近引起更大关注的,却是它们的供需基本面。中国几乎控制着整个世界的全部稀土供应。

稀土曾经被中国大大小小的矿商贱价出口,但随着这些矿产的经济意义日益提升,国家对市场的控制也越来越紧。最值得一提的是,政府已经对稀土开采企业实施合并,并对稀土出口实施限制。后一种措施或许是为了鼓励稀土用户把生产设施搬迁到中国境内,但它也造成国内外稀土定价的扭曲,而北京有可能得不偿失。

其他国家的稀土与其说是太过稀少,不如说是因为开采成本太高而难以生产。而中国的出口限制正在推高全球稀土价格,给中国矿企造就竞争对手。

限制措施可能还不只是出口配额。官方报纸《中国日报》(China Daily)本月报道说,中国两家被政府指定从事稀土开发的国有企业正在考虑实行"统一价格"。甚至具有官方背景的中国稀土学会也说,他们不知道这个方案可能会带来什么样的结果。但让人担心的是,这意味着北京正在考虑以产出这个高杠杆来设定价格。

中国完全可以利用本土资源最大限度地谋利。但如果是以一种竞争、透明的方式来定价,北京可以吸引投资,并成为这个行业的长期领导者。

这是一个"稀有"机会,中国很有可能错失。

Chuin-Wei Yap


China loves its rare earth. But its jealous guarding of these minerals could disrupt the market in ways that even Beijing won't appreciate.

Rare earth is the collective name for 17 elements that produce powerful magnets, or improve a metal's ability to withstand high temperatures. The elements are critical to high technologies such as hybrid-car batteries and wind turbines, but lately it's their demand-and-supply fundamentals that's drawn wider interest. China controls nearly all of the world's supply.

The minerals were once exported by disparate Chinese miners at bargain-basement prices, but with rare earth's rising economic importance has come increasing state control of the market. Most notably, the government has merged rare-earth mining companies and limited exports. The latter may be intended to encourage rare-earth users to move manufacturing facilities to China, but it nevertheless means pricing of the minerals both within and outside of the country is distorted -- and Beijing could lose more than it gains.

The minerals weren't so much rare as too costly to produce. But China's export caps are ratcheting global rare-earth prices higher and creating competition for Chinese miners.

It may not stop with the quotas. State-run newspaper China Daily reported this month that two of the country's designated state-owned rare-earth developers are considering a plan to 'unify prices.' Even officials at the state-backed Chinese Society of Rare Earths said they are uncertain where the plan might lead, but the fear is this means Beijing is thinking of using its high degree of output leverage to set prices.

China has every reason to seek the most bang for its buck from native resources. But if it sets prices in a competitive, transparent way, Beijing could attract investment and become a long-term leader in this industry.

That's a rare opportunity. China risks missing it.

Chuin-Wei Yap

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