2010年8月17日

分析:解密中国的“谦虚” Decoding China’s modesty

40余年来,日本的经济总量一直位居世界第二,仅排在美国后面,但今年,它的地位极有可能被中国取代。在本国令人瞩目的增长的推动下,中国得以超越历史宿敌。人们原本预期,北京方面会对此大加吹嘘。

然而,在本周一公布的数据显示中国二季度经济总量已超过日本后,北京方面的反应却与人们的预期完全不同。

中国商务部发言人姚坚表示:"中国是一个发展中国家。中国经济发展的质量还有待于提高。"在中国经济总量升至世界第二的消息发布后,姚坚是首位给出中国官方对这件事评论的人士。

世界银行(World Bank)数据显示,以名义美元国内生产总值(GDP)计,中国现在可能已排在世界第二位,但以人均GDP计,中国只排在第103位。

去年,中国人均GDP为3600美元,日本则比中国高十余倍。

姚坚还指出,中国还有1.5亿人还达不到一天一美元收入的标准。

姚坚和他的同事们说得对――在中国,大多数人还相当贫困,经济增长带来的好处没有平均分配到每个人头上。

但中国之所以坚持贬低自己的全球排名,中国官员之所以执着于"发展中国家"帽子,是因为别的原因。

如果没有这顶帽子(许多其它国家巴不得摘掉这顶帽子),中国在主张本国不能对温室气体排放施加具体限制、必须维持出口补贴和农业补贴以及不能推行认真的政治改革方面,难度会比现在大得多。

因此,中国官员并未对自己的成就大加吹嘘,而是继续坚守他们长期奉行的"韬光养晦"外交政策,想方设法否认中国在世界舞台上的迅速崛起。

例如上个月,当国际能源机构(IEA)表示,2009年,中国已超过美国,成为全球最大的能源消费国时,北京方面就对此做出了一连串严厉的反驳。

他们对国际能源机构具体使用了什么数据进行了吹毛求疵的指摘,这种做法有些舍本逐末――甚至连中国官方的专家也承认,即使中国去年在能源消费方面没有超过美国,今年或明年也肯定会超过。

北京方面很希望把自己的锋芒掩盖得再久一点,以求国际社会对中国承担更多责任和参与更多国际事务的要求也能再往后推一推。

译者/汪洋


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034162


Japan's economy has been the world's second largest, behind the United States', for just over four decades but this year it is very likely to be overtaken by China. Beijing might be expected to crow about the impressive growth that has allowed it to eclipse its historical arch-enemy.

But after data were released on Monday showing the Chinese economy surpassed the Japanese on a quarterly basis in the second quarter that was not the reaction at all.

"China is a developing country," according to Yao Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Commerce Ministry who was the first to make any official comments after news of the country's ascension to the number two spot. "The quality of China's economic development still needs to be raised."

China may now be number two in nominal US dollar GDP terms but the country ranks just 103rd in terms of per capita GDP, according to the World Bank.

And Japan's per capita GDP was more than 10 times higher than China's $3,600 last year.

Yao also pointed out that China has more than 150m people living on less than $1 a day.

Yao and his colleagues are correct that most people in China are still quite poor and that the benefits of economic growth have not been distributed equally.

But the fixation with talking down China's global rankings and the tenacity with which Chinese officials cling to the "developing country" moniker are about something else.

Without this designation, which many other countries would love to be rid of, China would find it much harder to argue that it cannot impose concrete curbs on greenhouse gases, that it must maintain export and agricultural subsidies, or that it cannot countenance serious political reform.

So, far from bragging about their achievements, Chinese officials continue to hew to their long-standing foreign policy of "concealing brightness and biding time" and try to deny their country's rapid rise on the world stage.

For example, last month when the International Energy Agency said China had surpassed the US in 2009 as the world's largest energy consumer the news was met by a barrage of scathing rebuttals from Beijing.

The nit-picking over exactly what data the IEA was using rather missed the point - even Chinese official experts concede that if China didn't overtake the US in energy consumption last year then it certainly will this year or next.

Beijing would really like to hide its brightness just a little bit longer in the hope that foreign demands for more accountability and more international engagement can be put off a bit longer as well.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034162/en

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