南海上空阴云密布。中国刚刚在那里举行了大规模军事演习，派遣了三支海军舰队参与军演，同时进行了电视转播，以保证所有人都能看到。这或许不是对美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)就南海发表的激怒中国政府言论的直接回应。但它是一个强有力的提醒：中国在这一地区展示实力的能力和意愿正在日渐增长。
在河内召开的一个地区安全会议上，希拉里发表讲话称，南海争端（主要是围绕南沙群岛和西沙群岛）在国际层面得到解决，符合美国的“国家利益”。中国和越南一直以来都各自宣称对这些岛屿及周边海域拥有主权，同时声称拥有部分主权的还有马来西亚、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和文莱。
希拉里暗示，美国政府准备为感觉日益受到中国威慑的东南亚小国出头。中国已开始驱逐越南渔船，迫使国际石油公司搁置与邻国的海底开发计划。《中国日报》(China Daily)最近的一篇评论文章，将希拉里的言论描述为“一种旨在遏制中国崛起的战略”。中国国防部也重申，中国对南海拥有“无可争辩的主权”，并反对美国试图将这一问题“国际化”。
遗憾的是，这可能仅仅是开始。数十年来，美国海军的存在帮助维持了该地区的平衡，如今，与美国交手的是一个复兴的中国。中国政府目前将南海视作其“核心利益”的一部分，这种描述使得妥协变得更不可能。当地出现海军军备竞赛已成为日益现实的威胁。在美国的支持下，东南亚国家应尝试修订海军交流规则，努力挽救局势，避免围绕有争议海域的小冲突升级。
必须让中国政府相信，它并非面临围堵政策。但外交重任需要中国政府自己来扛。它应该表明，这一地区的外交格局并不仅仅是“强者为王”。如果争端不能解决，那就应该搁置起来。在可能的情况下，各方应该就签署共享资源协议举行谈判。中国表示，希望“通过和平友好协商”解决争端。它需要证明这不只是空洞的言辞。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033922
Trouble is brewing in the South China Sea. Beijing has just conducted a massive show of force, sending three naval fleets to participate in war games – televised in case anyone wasn't watching. This may not have been a direct response to US secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who made remarks about the South China Sea that angered Beijing. But they are a potent reminder of China's growing capacity – and willingness – to project strength regionally.
Speaking at a regional security gathering in Hanoi, Mrs Clinton said it was in Washington's “national interest” to see international settlement of disputes in the South China Sea, principally over the Spratly and Paracel island chains. These islands, and their surrounding waters, have long been claimed by China and Vietnam, with Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan and Brunei also staking claims.
Mrs Clinton was signalling that Washington is prepared to stand up for smaller south-east Asian nations, which feel increasingly bullied by Beijing. China has taken to chasing off Vietnamese fishing fleets and pressuring international oil companies to drop undersea development plans with neighbours. A recent opinion piece in the China Daily described the secretary of state's remarks as “a gambit aimed at containing China's rise”. The defence ministry reiterated China's “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea and objected to US attempts to “internationalise” the issue.
Unfortunately, this is likely to be just the start of it. The US, whose naval presence has helped to keep the regional balance for decades, is rubbing up against a resurgent China. Beijing now refers to the South China Sea as part of its “core interests”, a description that makes compromise less likely. The threat of a naval arms race in the region is increasingly real. South-east Asian nations, with US backing, should try to salvage the situation by refining rules of naval engagement so that skirmishes in disputed waters do not escalate.
Beijing must be persuaded that it does not face a containment policy. But the heavy diplomatic lifting needs to be done by Beijing itself. It should show there is more to its regional diplomacy than might is right. Where disputes cannot be settled, they should be kicked into touch. If possible, resource-sharing agreements should be negotiated. China says it wants to resolve disputes “through peaceful and friendly consultations”. It needs to prove that this is more than empty rhetoric.
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