迁至香港管理一只中国题材基金近一年后，我惊奇地发现市场的氛围变了。投资者似乎没有能力一次在脑子里保留多个想法：对通胀、汇率问题紧张局势及政治不确定性的担忧，取代了对中国增长故事的热情。
北非与中东的动荡局势，已经加剧、并可能延长投资者从新兴市场重新转至发达市场的趋势。较之过去几年里能效提高的发达市场，油价高企对新兴市场更为能源密集型的经济体影响也许更大。
市场的担忧从来不会完全没有依据，忽视这些担忧的投资者是愚蠢的。但在对自己对整个市场及中国的看多情绪进行重新评估后，我还是不准备抛弃我的乐观。
去年10月份以来，中国央行连续三次上调贷款利率，突显出了投资者的下述担忧：信贷增长过快，通胀过高，政府需要采取的措施将导致经济硬着陆、从而削弱全球整体的增长。去年信贷增长强劲：如果将表外贷款与银行绕开管制的其它方法考虑进来，信贷增长幅度也许超过20%。我预计今年信贷增长将放缓，但这不会阻止其维持相对于发达国家的强劲增长态势。
所有新兴市场，包括中国在内，将不得不习惯于高企的结构性通胀，但有一点不应被忘记：在控制价格方面，中国政府比其它新兴市场拥有更大的权力。依照中国法律，政府可以对公用事业、能源与食品实施价格管制，而且它也确实这么做了。低估中国在未来1至2年内所能采取的行动，将是错误的。
在很大程度上，中国的通胀是由食品价格上涨所致。除去食品这块，通胀压力相对温和；所以，尽管我预期利率会进一步上调、银行存款准备金会收紧，但不出意外的话，调整步伐应该缓慢而稳健——因为这就是中国的行事方式。
第二个担忧是坏账。对于这点，我仍比其他一些中国观察人士要更为乐观。主要担忧在于地方政府层面：地方财力没有想象的那么雄厚，大部分资金都被用在了基础设施上、一些贷款已经成为坏账。不过，中央政府有很多方法来缓和这一问题——把资金从中央划拨至地方，并改变地方政府的融资途径，比方说通过房产税、而非出售土地。
汇率问题上的紧张局势不是好消息，中美在该问题上的关系已经恶化。我希望近期的元首访问可以起到缓和作用，但对这个问题我会密切观察。该地区的政治紧张同样不容忽视。在这点上，我对朝鲜半岛的担忧要甚于中国；迄今为止，韩国的行动都是有所克制的，因此市场有点掉以轻心。
在中国国内，更重要的问题是一场划时代变革将带来的种种社会挑战：这个世界人口最多的国家实现从制造业向服务业的经济转型时，会面临个人及家庭的再培训与骚动不安等问题。一些新的岗位将出现，同时另有一些会消失，这将制造紧张。眼下，新晋中产阶层对新拥有的汽车、消费品与公寓感到满足。但随着财富不断增加，他们会渴望更大限度的自由。政府如何适应这一趋势，将至关重要。
从纯粹的投资角度看，中国的政治风险比我在英国及欧洲管理基金时面临的风险要大。这里的政策风险之所以更大，是因为正如可以通过调整价格控制通胀一样，政府能够以在西方不可能实现的方式，改变针对某家公司或某个行业的基本规则。有时，措施的出台会完全出乎你的意料，作为一名投资者，你必须适应这一点。
不过，在其它方面，中国政府行事又惊人地务实。新措施通常要在两到三个城市试点，然后才在全国推广，绝对不会随心所欲、毫无规划。如果措施行得通，就会被采用；如果不行，就被会抛弃。
香港正是这种独特制度与西方制度相碰撞的地方，是中国构造板块与世界其它地区板块相遇的中心点。香港的汇率与利率受美国政策的影响，但在贸易与文化上受内地影响最大。香港的“地质构造”不稳定，但却是一种有利的不稳定，而且，这里的氛围仍然很和谐。
本文作者是富达国际基金(Fidelity International)投资经理。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001037512
Almost a year after I moved to Hong Kong to run a China investment fund, I am struck by a shift in the mood music. It is as if, unable to hold more than one thought in their minds at a time, investors have displaced their enthusiasm for the Chinese growth story with concerns about inflation, currency tensions and political uncertainty.
The rotation from emerging to developed markets has been exacerbated and may be prolonged, by the disturbances in north Africa and the Middle East. The impact of a higher oil price might be greater in the more energy-intensive economies of the emerging world than in the developed markets, which have become more energy efficient over the years.
The worries of the market are never wholly without foundation and it is a foolish investor who dismisses them. But, having reappraised my bullishness on markets in general and China in particular, I am not yet ready to abandon my optimism.
The increase in the People’s Bank of China’s lending rate, the third since October, highlighted investors’ concerns that credit expansion was too fast, inflation was too high and the measures the government needs to take will impose a hard landing on the Chinese economy and so dent global growth as a whole. Credit growth was strong last year, at maybe more than 20 per cent once off-balance sheet loans and the other ways in which banks get around controls are taken into consideration. I expect credit to slow this year but that will not prevent growth from being relatively strong, compared with the developed world.
All emerging markets, China included, will have to get used to structurally higher inflation, but it should be remembered the Chinese authorities have greater powers than in other emerging markets to control prices. By edict, the government can and does impose controls on utilities, energy and food. It would be wrong to underestimate what the Chinese can do on a one to two-year view.
China’s inflation is being driven very largely by rising food prices. Excluding these, inflationary pressures are relatively mild so while I expect further increases in interest rates and a tightening of the banks’ reserve requirements, it would be surprising if the moves were other than slow and steady: that is how the Chinese go about things.
A second concern is bad debts. Again, I am less worried about these than are some other China watchers. The main concerns are at the local government level where finances are not as strong as they might be, much has been spent on infrastructure and some loans are under water. Again, however, the government can do a lot to alleviate the problem, moving money from the centre to the regions and changing the way local government is funded, through, for example, property taxes rather than land sales.
Currency tensions are not good news and relations between China and the US on this issue have deteriorated. I hope that the recent presidential visit might help but this is an area I watch very carefully. Similarly, political tensions in the region cannot be disregarded. I am more concerned about Korea in this respect than China itself and markets are somewhat complacent about the fact that, to date, the south has acted with restraint.
Within China, a bigger issue surrounds the social challenges arising from the epochal shift of the world’s most populous nation from a manufacturing to a services-based economy with all the retraining and upheaval of individuals and their families. Jobs will come and others will go and this will create tensions. For now, the new middle class is happy with its new cars, consumer goods and apartments. But, increasing affluence will bring with it a desire for more freedom. How the government adapts to this will be critical.
From a purely investment perspective, political risk is greater than I was used to when running money in the UK and Europe. Policy risk is more significant for, just as the government can control inflation by fixing prices, it can change the ground rules for a company or industry in a way that could not happen in the West. Sometimes, measures can come completely out of the blue and, as an investor, you have to adapt to this.
In other ways, however, the state can act in an impressively pragmatic way. There is nothing capricious or unplanned about the way in which new measures are often trialled in two or three cities or regions before being rolled out nationally. If the measure works it is adopted; if not, it is simply dropped.
Hong Kong is where this very different system collides with the West, the epicentre where the tectonic plates of China and the rest of the world rub up against each other. Hong Kong imports US policy through its currency and interest rates but is most influenced by China in terms of trade and culture. It is an unstable place, but in a good way and the mood music here is still harmonious.
Anthony Bolton is president, investments at Fidelity International
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