高速列车、大面积的风力发电场，还有改造数十个城市的20年规划——在西方民主国家似乎陷于激烈的争吵之际，中国为自己赢得了应对长期挑战的声誉。
但在这一敢想敢干的形象中，有一些很大的警示信号。最突出的是政府在改革户籍制度方面断断续续的努力，这种制度实际上将农村居民当作二等公民。
当中国总理温家宝今日向全国人民代表大会作年度“政府工作报告”时，人们最密切关注的问题之一将是，他在废除户籍制度方面会说些什么。
温家宝在近几周多次发出信号，显示政府正在酝酿各种提议，包括上周他在网上对话期间表示，户籍改革是他的工作重点之一。与此同时，来自社会的压力正在积聚，包括13家中国报纸本周一罕见地共同发表社论，宣示：“中国患户籍制度之苦久矣！”
中国的户籍改革就像美国的医保改革——大家都认为应该解决这个问题，但改革在政治上充满风险，难以真正推行。北京方面在上世纪90年代中期就开始谈论户籍改革，由国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝领导的本届政府自2004年起就承诺要进行重大改革。
然而，一些专家表示，具体进展极为缓慢。“自胡温上台以来，迄今没有什么真正的改革，”北京中国人民大学教授陶然表示。“他们从未落实改革的资金渠道。”
强制性的户籍制度是在上世纪50年代开始实行的，目的是控制国内人口流动。在中国经济走向开放后，大批农民迁徙至城市，在工厂里工作，但是，由于没有至关重要的城市户口，他们得不到收入补助、有补贴的住房、以及（最重要的）子女在公立学校入学的资格。中国知识分子长期抨击这一制度，称其是一种隔离形式。
近些年来，中国一些地方实施了一些小规模的户籍制度改革试点项目，包括成都、重庆、武汉等城市以及广东、浙江省的部分地区。
某些项目提供一种交换计划，即农民放弃自己的土地，以换取城市户口。
中国政策制定者近期在讨论各项提议，以求加快这些试点项目。“两年多来，重庆一直在规划更大程度的户籍改革，”重庆副市长马正其本周表示。“今年肯定会有一个突破。”
但观察人士表示，这些提议只是刚开始应对问题。首先，这些计划通常仅适用于搬迁至邻近城镇的农村居民，而这些城镇的就业机会未必充足。
换句话说，这些计划不适用于已从内陆省份迁徙至中国南方及上海周围工厂集中地的数以千万计的打工者。
陶然表示，这样的计划有时还给官员们提供了一个借口，让他们把不情愿的农民赶出自己的土地，而无需支付合理的价格。
主要障碍在于如何为进城的农民工落实社会福利的资金来源。北京方面在2004年表示，农民工子女应当能在城市学校入学，但在没有任何新的专项资金的情况下，只有上海等少数几个城市实施了这项政策。而且，在去年为基建工程大举借贷后，地方政府的财政状况比以往更为拮据。
多年来，政府官员一直在讨论出台物业税，这将为地方政府提供一个稳定的收入来源，使其能够承担农民工的福利。但官员们担心，宣布出台这样的税种，可能导致房地产市场崩盘。
因此，学者们预期，中国将一个城市一个城市地逐步开征地方化的物业税，在10年甚至更长时期帮助为户籍制度的改革提供资金。
“政府将不得不一步一步地处理这个问题，让户籍制度逐步淡出。这是最稳妥的处理方式，”重庆大学经济学教授蒲勇健表示。
译者/和风
With its high-speed trains, acres of wind farms and 20-year plans to transform dozens of cities, China has won itself a reputation for addressing long-term challenges just at a time when western democracies appear mired in fractious disputes.
Yet there are some very large caveats to this can-do image, none more so than the government's halting efforts to reform the hukou system of residence permits that effectively treats people in rural areas as second-class citizens.
When China's Premier Wen Jiabao gives his annual “work report” to the National People's Congress today, one of the most closely watched issues will be what he has to say about getting rid of the hukou.
Mr Wen has given a number of hints in recent weeks that proposals are afoot, including saying during an online forum last weekend that hukou reform was one of his priorities. Meanwhile, the pressure from society is mounting, including a rare joint editorial in 13 newspapers on Monday which declared: “China has suffered under the bitter hukou system for too long!”
Hukou reform is to China what healthcare reform is in the US – an issue that everyone agrees should be addressed, but which is politically treacherous to push through. Beijing has been talking about hukou reform since the mid-1990s and the current administration under Mr Wen and President Hu Jintao has been pledging a big shake-up since 2004.
Yet some experts say progress has been glacial. “There has been little real reform in the Hu-Wen period,” said Ran Tao, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing. “They have never put in place a way to fund real reform.”
The system of obligatory residence permits was introduced in the 1950s to control internal migration. After the economy began to open up, farmers migrated to work in factories in cities, but without the crucial urban residence document, they are denied access to income-support payments, subsidised housing and most importantly, public schools for their children. Chinese intellectuals have long slammed the system as a form of segregation.
In recent years, there have been a number of small pilot projects that have experimented with reform in the cities of Chengdu, Chongqing and Wuhan and parts of Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces.
In some cases, the schemes have operated a swap where farmers have given up their land in return for a city hukou.
Chinese policymakers have recently been discussing proposals to accelerate such pilot projects. “Chongqing has been planning for more hukou reform for more than two years,” Ma Zhengqi, a vice-mayor of Chongqing, said this week. “This year there will definitely be a breakthrough.”
But observers say such proposals only begin to address the problem. For a start, these schemes usually apply only to rural residents who move to the nearest town or city where job opportunities might not be plentiful.
They do not include the tens of millions who have migrated from inland provinces to factory areas in southern China and around Shanghai.
Mr Ran says that such schemes have also sometimes provided an excuse for officials to push reluctant farmers off their land without paying a reasonable price.
The main stumbling block is financing urban social benefits for migrant workers. Beijing said in 2004 that migrant families should get access to city schools, but without any new revenue to pay for this, only a few cities such as Shanghai have implemented this policy. And after having borrowed heavily last year to pay for infrastructure projects, the finances of local governments are even more stretched than before.
Government officials have discussed for a number of years the introduction of a property tax, which would provide a stable source of income for local governments to pay for migrants' benefits. But they are afraid that the announcement of such a tax would lead to a property market collapse.
As a result, scholars expect a gradual roll-out of localised taxes on property, city by city, to help fund reforms to the hukou system over a period of a decade or more.
“The government will have to deal with this issue step by step, gradually letting the system fade away. That is the safest way to handle it,” said Pu Yongj-ian, an economics professor at Chongqing University.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031584
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