德
国重新复苏的出口经济给该国决策者带来了一个新的担忧──对中国不断增长的依赖性。德国第二季度经济增速折合成年率为9%，是其逾25年来最为强劲的增幅。
推动这一增长的是对德国出口产品的需求，尤其是来自中国的需求。不过现在，由于未来数月中国可能会对其两位数的经济增速轻踩刹车，许多经济学家都说，这将对德国产生巨大影响。
德国机械设备制造业联合会(VDMA)首席经济学家威舍尔斯(Ralph Wiechers)说，我对（中国的增长）有着许多复杂的感情，一方面，对德国企业来说中国无疑是越来越重要了，但作为一个商人，你总是希望自身的增长能有更广泛的基础。
今年头五个月，德国对华出口增长了55%，大概相当于对欧元区出口增速的六倍。德国对华出口的增长已经成为许多德国制造商实现复苏的主要推动力，例如纺织机械、压缩机和机床生产商。
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模特在今年4月北京车展上展示一辆奔驰轿车。
今年头五个月，德国出口到中国的机械产品比例更是进一步增加至11.1%。
就德国整体经济而言，中国大约占据着德国总体出口的5%，对华出口量相当于对法国出口量的一半、也相当于德国对整个欧元区出口量的一小部分。法国是德国最大的单一出口市场。
但是，面对欧洲多数地区的停滞不前和美国前景的不确定性，中国作为德国增长主要推动力的角色也许不会马上改变。
中国第二季度经济增速由一季度的11.9%放缓至10.3%，经济学家预计，随着中国政府为了避免经济过热而控制银行放贷，中国经济将进一步减速。
德国整体工业因对华出口而受益，不过这其中受益最大的行业是其颇具认可的汽车业。
德国三大豪华车生产商──宝马(BMW AG)、戴姆勒(Daimler AG)旗下梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)和大众(Volkswagen AG)的奥迪(Audi)，今年迄今各自对华汽车销量增幅在63%至132%之间。
如此销量增幅促使利润大涨，推动营运毛利率达到前所未有的水平，尽管欧洲本土和美国的销量都表现不佳。
利润大幅提高的背后有许多因素在起著作用。中国豪华车车主们被那些更加昂贵和高端、发动机更强大还能提供更多选择的汽车所吸引，这不同于三家汽车生产商在其更成熟市场上的购买者。
今年上半年欧元兑美元和人民币约15%的跌幅是德国进口汽车利润率提高的又一因素。
结果是，据分析人士估计，近来的德国汽车生产商，特别是宝马和奔驰，可能从每辆外销中国的汽车上最高盈利三万欧元（合38,613美元）。这是汽车生产商通常在欧洲获得的利润的约10倍。
据研究公司Bernstein Research驻伦敦的沃伯顿(Max Warburton)估计，宝马汽车业务二季度实现的13亿欧元营业利润中，在中国赚取的利润可能占了至多90%。
这样一面倒的利润令一些经济学家和工业家担心，德国的汽车业开始过于依赖中国的增长，德国出口推动型经济的其他领域会跟风效仿。
沃伯顿说，令我担心的是这只是一种无法持续的爆炸式增长。
他还说，德国汽车生产商在中国获得的巨额利润呈现出“可能令人误解的”公司财务状况，因为这些公司要应对产能过剩、在节油技术上日益增大的投资成本和其他主要市场的缓慢增长。
他还说，我有种可怕的感觉，随着中国汽车市场的发展，将会出现一些挫折。
本周，衡量德国投资者信心的一个关键月度指数显示，8月份投资者信心从7月份的21.2跌至低于预期的14.0。该指数由欧洲经济研究中心(ZEW Center for European Economic Research)发布。
这些数据显示出，在2010年上半年德国经济强劲增长之后，人们对今年剩余时间出口拉动型增长更加悲观的预期。
除中国制造业增长放缓之外，6月份美国的工厂订单也跌至预期水平之下，是连续第二个月下滑，进一步显示出美国经济可能在走软。
与此同时，由于欧洲各国政府实施了严厉的措施来应对预算赤字，加上德国消费支出依然低迷，预计欧元区的增长不会很快加速。
就在德国汽车生产商转移资源、增产来满足亚洲需求之际，它们却驳斥了自己过于依赖中国实现增长的看法。
宝马首席执行长雷瑟夫(Norbert Reithofer)本月在公司公布二季度收益时说，对我来说，强调我们并非完全依赖中国，这一点非常重要。
雷瑟夫说，我们是一家在全球运作、运营的公司。
其他汽车生产商已经开始应对全球增长放缓的预期了。
在上周大众公布7月份汽车销售情况时，该公司销售总监科林格勒尔(Christian Klingler)预测，今年下半年全球汽车市场将收缩，他表示中国等新兴市场的增长不足以弥补欧洲等地的销售下滑。
科林格勒尔说，今年不会回到危机前的水平。
Vanessa Fuhrmans
Germany's resurgent export economy is presenting the country's policy makers with a new worry -- a growing reliance on China.
Germany's economy expanded at an annualized 9% rate in the second quarter, its strongest pace in more than 25 years.
Driving that growth was demand for German exports, especially from China. Now, however, with China expected to tap the brakes on its double-digit growth in coming months, many economists say the cooldown will have an outsize effect on Germany.
'I see the [Chinese growth] with a lot of mixed feelings,' said Ralph Wiechers, chief economist at the VDMA German engineering federation. 'On one hand, it is clear that China is ever more important for German companies. But as a businessman, you always wish that your growth was broader-based.'
German export gains in China -- 55% in the first five months of the year, or roughly six times the growth rate of exports to the euro zone -- have been the primary engine in the recovery of many German manufacturers, such as textile machinery, compressor and machine-tool makers.
For German machinery makers -- a pillar of the country's economy -- China last year surpassed the U.S. as the largest export market, with some 10.2% of their exported products flowing there, compared with 7.2% going to the U.S.
During the first five months of this year, the share of German machinery production headed to the China grew even further to 11.1%.
Across Germany's broader economy, China represents about 5% of all German exports, half the volume of exports to France, Germany's largest, single export market, and a small fraction of those to the entire euro zone.
Nevertheless, China's predominance as a driver of German growth is unlikely to change soon, with much of Europe stagnating and the U.S. outlook uncertain.
China's growth softened over the second quarter, to 10.3% from 11.9% in the first quarter, and economists predict further slowing as the government restrains bank lending in an effort to keep the economy from overheating.
Though German industry as a whole has benefited from exports to China, the country's marquee sector -- autos -- has profited most.
Among Germany's big premium car makers -- BMW AG, Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen AG's Audi -- individual car sales to China have soared between 63% and 132% so far this year.
Such growth has fueled a surge in profits, pushing operating margins to record levels despite weak sales on their home turf in Europe and spotty growth in the U.S.
Behind the windfall is a confluence of factors. Chinese luxury-car drivers gravitate toward pricier, higher-end vehicles with much bigger engines and more options than such buyers in the three auto makers' more mature markets.
The euro's roughly 15% slide against the dollar and the Chinese yuan in the first half of 2010 added another boost to profit margins on cars imported from Germany or elsewhere.
As a result, analysts estimate that the German auto makers of late, particularly BMW and Mercedes, may have been reaping as much as 30,000 euros ($38,613) in profit per car exported to and sold in China. That is roughly 10 times the amount the car makers typically get in Europe.
At BMW, Chinese profitability may have contributed as much as 90% of the car maker's 1.3 billion euros in second-quarter operating profit from its auto segment, estimates Max Warburton of Bernstein Research in London.
Such lopsided fortunes have some economists and industrialists fretting that Germany's auto industry is becoming too reliant on Chinese growth and that such exposure is a harbinger for other swaths of Germany's export-driven economy.
'What makes me worried is that it is just such unsustainably explosive growth,' said Bernstein's Mr. Warburton.
He added that the remarkable Chinese profitability of German car makers presents a 'potentially misleading picture' of the companies' financial health as they struggle with overcapacity, growing investment costs in fuel-efficient technologies and minimal growth in other big markets.
'I've got a horrible feeling there will be a few setbacks' as China's car market develops, he added.
This week, a key monthly index of German investor confidence, conducted by the ZEW Center for European Economic Research, showed that investor sentiment dropped to a lower-than-expected 14.0 in August from 21.2 in July.
Those data suggest a more pessimistic outlook for export-led growth the rest of the year after strong German economic growth during the first half of 2010.
In addition to slowing manufacturing growth in China, factory orders in the U.S. dropped more than expected in June, the second monthly decline in a row and a further sign the U.S economy might be weakening.
Meanwhile, growth in the euro zone isn't expected to accelerate anytime soon as European governments implement austerity measures to tackle budge deficits, and German consumer spending remains sluggish.
German auto makers dismiss the notion that they have become too dependent on China for growth, even as they shift resources and ramp up production to meet Asian demand.
'It is important to me to emphasize we are not solely relying on China,' BMW's chief executive Norbert Reithofer said this month, when the auto maker presented its second-quarter earnings.
'We are a company that acts and operates globally,' Mr. Reit-hofer said.
Other vehicle makers have already begun managing expectations for slower growth world-wide.
In announcing Volkwagen's July car sales last week, the company's sales chief Christian Klingler predicted that the global auto market would shrink in the second half, suggesting that growth from China and other emerging markets wouldn't be enough to offset declining sales in Europe and elsewhere.
'There will not be a return to precrisis levels this year,' Mr. Klingler said.
Vanessa Fuhrmans
Germany's economy expanded at an annualized 9% rate in the second quarter, its strongest pace in more than 25 years.
Driving that growth was demand for German exports, especially from China. Now, however, with China expected to tap the brakes on its double-digit growth in coming months, many economists say the cooldown will have an outsize effect on Germany.
'I see the [Chinese growth] with a lot of mixed feelings,' said Ralph Wiechers, chief economist at the VDMA German engineering federation. 'On one hand, it is clear that China is ever more important for German companies. But as a businessman, you always wish that your growth was broader-based.'
German export gains in China -- 55% in the first five months of the year, or roughly six times the growth rate of exports to the euro zone -- have been the primary engine in the recovery of many German manufacturers, such as textile machinery, compressor and machine-tool makers.
For German machinery makers -- a pillar of the country's economy -- China last year surpassed the U.S. as the largest export market, with some 10.2% of their exported products flowing there, compared with 7.2% going to the U.S.
During the first five months of this year, the share of German machinery production headed to the China grew even further to 11.1%.
Across Germany's broader economy, China represents about 5% of all German exports, half the volume of exports to France, Germany's largest, single export market, and a small fraction of those to the entire euro zone.
Nevertheless, China's predominance as a driver of German growth is unlikely to change soon, with much of Europe stagnating and the U.S. outlook uncertain.
China's growth softened over the second quarter, to 10.3% from 11.9% in the first quarter, and economists predict further slowing as the government restrains bank lending in an effort to keep the economy from overheating.
Though German industry as a whole has benefited from exports to China, the country's marquee sector -- autos -- has profited most.
Among Germany's big premium car makers -- BMW AG, Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen AG's Audi -- individual car sales to China have soared between 63% and 132% so far this year.
Such growth has fueled a surge in profits, pushing operating margins to record levels despite weak sales on their home turf in Europe and spotty growth in the U.S.
Behind the windfall is a confluence of factors. Chinese luxury-car drivers gravitate toward pricier, higher-end vehicles with much bigger engines and more options than such buyers in the three auto makers' more mature markets.
The euro's roughly 15% slide against the dollar and the Chinese yuan in the first half of 2010 added another boost to profit margins on cars imported from Germany or elsewhere.
As a result, analysts estimate that the German auto makers of late, particularly BMW and Mercedes, may have been reaping as much as 30,000 euros ($38,613) in profit per car exported to and sold in China. That is roughly 10 times the amount the car makers typically get in Europe.
At BMW, Chinese profitability may have contributed as much as 90% of the car maker's 1.3 billion euros in second-quarter operating profit from its auto segment, estimates Max Warburton of Bernstein Research in London.
Such lopsided fortunes have some economists and industrialists fretting that Germany's auto industry is becoming too reliant on Chinese growth and that such exposure is a harbinger for other swaths of Germany's export-driven economy.
'What makes me worried is that it is just such unsustainably explosive growth,' said Bernstein's Mr. Warburton.
He added that the remarkable Chinese profitability of German car makers presents a 'potentially misleading picture' of the companies' financial health as they struggle with overcapacity, growing investment costs in fuel-efficient technologies and minimal growth in other big markets.
'I've got a horrible feeling there will be a few setbacks' as China's car market develops, he added.
This week, a key monthly index of German investor confidence, conducted by the ZEW Center for European Economic Research, showed that investor sentiment dropped to a lower-than-expected 14.0 in August from 21.2 in July.
Those data suggest a more pessimistic outlook for export-led growth the rest of the year after strong German economic growth during the first half of 2010.
In addition to slowing manufacturing growth in China, factory orders in the U.S. dropped more than expected in June, the second monthly decline in a row and a further sign the U.S economy might be weakening.
Meanwhile, growth in the euro zone isn't expected to accelerate anytime soon as European governments implement austerity measures to tackle budge deficits, and German consumer spending remains sluggish.
German auto makers dismiss the notion that they have become too dependent on China for growth, even as they shift resources and ramp up production to meet Asian demand.
'It is important to me to emphasize we are not solely relying on China,' BMW's chief executive Norbert Reithofer said this month, when the auto maker presented its second-quarter earnings.
'We are a company that acts and operates globally,' Mr. Reit-hofer said.
Other vehicle makers have already begun managing expectations for slower growth world-wide.
In announcing Volkwagen's July car sales last week, the company's sales chief Christian Klingler predicted that the global auto market would shrink in the second half, suggesting that growth from China and other emerging markets wouldn't be enough to offset declining sales in Europe and elsewhere.
'There will not be a return to precrisis levels this year,' Mr. Klingler said.
Vanessa Fuhrmans
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