对于希望利用中国大量廉价劳动力的国内外企业来说，多年来，中国沿海制造业中心一直是生产基地的上上之选。
然而，自今年5月份以来，中国境内劳资争端明显增多，加之人民币走强以及政府采取行动遏制污染和产能过剩，表明这种低成本的生产模式已不再稳固。
传统上以中国作为廉价劳动力来源的企业，正日益把利润率较低的生产线迁移到劳动力成本更低的地方，尤其是中国内陆地区，主要手段是加快实施工厂自动化计划，并且在可能的情况下，将成本转嫁给消费者。
中国雇员人数最多的制造业企业——富士康(Foxconn)宣布，将上调价格并提高生产自动化程度，就彰显了这一点。
劳动力成本上涨虽让人怀疑中国作为"世界工厂"的地位，但也可把它视为向高附加值制造转移、中国消费市场吸引力日益增强这一过程的一部分。
近几个月来，劳资关系紧张导致中国许多大型工厂停产，包括生产本田(Honda)和丰田(Toyota)汽车的工厂，新近则涉及零部件供应商Atsumitec和欧姆龙(Omron)。
官方数据显示，今年以来，在中国两大制造业中心"珠三角"和"长三角"，劳动力成本上涨了20%-25%，全国最低工资标准平均上调12%。
在部分情况下，劳动力成本上涨对利润影响有限（因为劳动力成本占销货成本的比例较小），但更大的风险来自停工。
据此我们认为，管理层将表现得更愿意去适应工人的要求。工资压力并不仅限于制造业——中国市场上最大的餐饮集团百胜餐饮集团(Yum Brands)的管理层已表示，预计今年下半年劳动力成本将出现大幅上涨。
劳动力成本在总成本中所占比例相对较小的行业，将承受得起工资较大幅度的上涨，更何况他们可以通过提高劳动生产率，保持成本竞争力。
投资者也应记住，可供投资的中国公司明显偏重于金融、电信和能源等行业，而制造业工资上涨对这些行业的影响想必会比较小（这些行业的工资本来就远高于平均水平）。
在劳动密集、且利润率较低的行业，生产商的境况会不太稳定。我们分析了各行业的平均工资增长率和工资与利润比率，发现建筑、制造、批发和零售等行业受工资上涨的影响最大。
在政策扶持下，华中地区已成为又一个上佳的制造业地点，这里有大量更廉价的劳动力，不断改善的交通设施，而且地方政府还出台了许多激励政策。
大体上讲，高附加值商品的生产可能仍将集中在老牌制造业中心，以利用当地更完善的经销网络、供应链和技术熟练的工人。
人口因素是劳动力问题的根源所在。近些年来，中国劳动力过剩的现象逐渐减轻，年龄介于20-39岁之间的劳动力人数（他们在劳动密集型企业的雇员中占很大比例）不断减少。
在全球需求日渐复苏的形势下，能够或甘愿背井离乡、前往生活成本高得吓人的沿海城市打工的年轻农民工出现了不足。造成沿海地区劳工荒的另一个因素是，由于经济刺激政策所引发的基础设施扩张，在内陆地区找到建筑业工作的机会明显增多。
未来几年内，非技术类农民工工资的年增长率有可能超过总体工资年增长率。因此我们认为，收入的不断增长，将有利于中国实现经济再平衡，以摆脱对投资和净出口的过度依赖。
随着中国大量劳动人口的可支配收入提高，我们预计，中国达到较高收入水平的家庭将为数可观，他们将能够消费得起更加丰富多样的食品、品牌服装、教育和娱乐以及旅游等服务。我们同样认为，向中部地区迁移的过程将推高物流需求，而不断加大的工资压力，将促使许多公司投资于自动化。
本文作者李晶(Jing Ulrich)是摩根大通(JPMorgan)董事总经理、中国证券和大宗商品部主席
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034171
China's coastal manufacturing hubs have, for many years, been the production base of choice for domestic and multinational companies looking to take advantage of the country's vast pool of inexpensive labour.
But along with a strengthening renminbi and government action to curb pollution and overcapacity, a surge of labour disputes since May suggests that the low-cost model of production is no longer robust.
Companies that traditionally relied on China as a source of cheap labour are increasingly relocating low-margin production lines to lower-cost labour venues – particularly in central China, by speeding up factory automation plans and, where possible, by passing on costs to customers.
This is evident in the announcement by Foxconn, China's largest manufacturing employer, that it will increase its prices and use more automated production.
Although the rise in labour costs calls into question China's status as the world's workshop, it can also be seen as a part of the process of moving towards higher value manufacturing and of China becoming a more attractive consumer market.
Labour tensions have disrupted operations at a range of big Chinese plants in the past few months, including facilities producing Honda and Toyota vehicles, and more recently at parts suppliers Atsumitec and Omron.
Labour costs in China's biggest manufacturing hubs, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, have risen 20-25 per cent this year, according to official data. Throughout the country, minimum wages have risen by 12 per cent on average this year.
Although in some of these instances, rising labour costs have had a limited impact on profit (given the low proportion of labour costs to cost of goods sold), the greater risk arises from loss of production.
As such, we believe management teams will show greater inclination to accommodate worker demands. Wage pressure is not just limited to the manufacturing sector – management at Yum Brands, the largest restaurant operator in China, has indicated that very high labour inflation is expected in the second half of the year.
Many industries in which labour costs constitute a relatively small component of total costs will be able to weather a significant degree of wage inflation, particularly since cost competitiveness can be preserved by improving labour productivity.
Investors should also keep in mind that the investable universe of Chinese companies is heavily weighted towards sectors such as financials, telecoms and energy, which are presumably less impacted by wage inflation occurring among the manufacturing workforce (since typical wages already stand far above average levels).
The situation is more precarious for producers in labour-intensive, low-profit margin industries. By examining average rates of wage growth and the ratio of wages to profit across industries, we find that construction, manufacturing, wholesale and retail are the industries most affected by wage inflation.
With the influence of policy support, the central region of China has emerged as the alternative manufacturing location of choice, offering ample lower cost labour, improving transportation links and a range of local government incentives.
By and large, the production of higher-value-added goods is likely to remain concentrated in well-established manufacturing hubs to take advantage of better distribution networks, supply chains and access to skilled labour.
Demographic factors lie at the root of labour issues. China's labour surplus is waning – the population of workers aged 20-39, the bracket that captures a high proportion of workers in labour-intensive companies – has been declining for several years.
Recovering global demand has revealed a shortage of young migrant workers available or willing to work far from their homes in coastal cities where the costs of living are prohibitive. Another factor behind coastal labour shortages is the wider availability of construction employment in inland China due to stimulus-led infrastructure expansion.
With annual wage growth for unskilled migrant workers likely to outpace wage growth in the next several years, we believe rising incomes should support efforts to rebalance the economy away from excessive reliance on investments and net exports.
As China's mass labour pool gains higher disposable income, we expect a sizable number of households will cross the income threshold at which the consumption of more diverse food categories, branded clothing, education and entertainment as well as travel services becomes viable. We also believe the process of relocation to central China will generate higher demand for logistics services while the increasing wage pressures will prompt more companies to invest in automation.
Jing Ulrich is JPMorgan's managing director and chairman, China equities and commodities
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