以成功预测英镑下跌、帮助乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)“做空英镑”而著称的对冲基金经理斯坦利•德鲁肯米勒(Stanley Druckenmiller)，昨日宣布退休。现年57岁的德鲁肯米勒表示，对自己在今年市场波动期间的表现感到失望。
几十年来，德鲁肯米勒一直是全球最成功的宏观对冲基金经理之一。他的退休可能预示着更多的人会退出江湖。宏观对冲基金经理寻求从长期经济趋势中获利。
“今年本应是宏观对冲基金经理表现优异的一年，”曾在纽约联邦储备银行(New York Fed)负责外汇部门并主管市场业务的迪诺•科斯(Dino Kos)表示。“波动性一直让人非常头疼。斯坦利的退休标志着一个时代的结束。”
德鲁肯米勒最著名的举动是在1992年，当时他为索罗斯工作，他准确预测出，英镑兑德国马克汇率将下跌。在与英国央行(Bank of England)较量的过程中，德鲁肯米勒帮助打造了这样一幅图景：足智多谋且勇敢无畏的对冲基金经理用计挫败资金更充裕的央行行长。
然而最近几个月，德鲁肯米勒承认，与许多投资者一样，他对市场上互相矛盾的信号感到困惑。“看看不确定性吧，”美联储(Fed)一名高官表示，“我们面对的是通缩还是通胀？我们是在上涨还是下跌？增长还是下滑？”
在写给投资者的信中，德鲁肯米勒表示，在2008年和2009年取得正盈利后，他仍对他的Duquesne Capital Management今年续写“未被打破的正盈利纪录”抱有希望。
但德鲁肯米勒表示，他之所以在基金创建30年后关闭它，是因为今年迄今为止，业绩“没有达到我自己确定的内部长期标准”。他说，工作任务给他带来了“巨大的个人成本”。
上世纪90年代，德鲁肯米勒还曾正确押注欧元的走势。
译者/梁艳裳
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034186
Stanley Druckenmiller, the hedge fund manager known for making the bet that helped George Soros “break the pound”, announced his retirement yesterday, saying he was disappointed in his performance during this year’s market volatility.
For decades, Mr Druckenmiller, 57, ranked among the world’s most successful macro hedge fund managers – who seek to profit from long-term economic trends – and his retirement could signal a parade of similar departures.
“This should have been a great year for macro,” says Dino Kos, who formerly ran the foreign exchange desk and headed market operations at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. “The swings and the volatility have been very painful. Stan’s retirement is the end of an era.”
Mr Druckenmiller’s most famous move came in 1992 – while he was working for Mr Soros – when he correctly bet that the pound would fall against the Deutschmark. In taking on the Bank of England, Mr Druckenmiller helped shape the image of the resourceful and fearless hedge fund manager outfoxing deeper-pocketed central bankers.
However, in recent months, Mr Druckenmiller confessed that he – like many investors – had been confused by competing signals in the markets. “Look at the uncertainty,” said one senior Fed official. “Are we facing deflation or inflation? Are we up or down? Growing or not?”
In his letter to investors, Mr Druckenmiller said that having posted positive results in 2008 and 2009, he remained hopeful that his Duquesne Capital Management would continue its “unbroken record of positive performance” in 2010.
However, he said he was closing his fund after 30 years because results so far this year “did not match my own, internal long-term standard”. He said the demands of his job were imposing “heavy personal costs”.
Mr Druckenmiller also correctly bet on European currency movements in the 1990s.
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