在床垫下找到一些额外的钱通常令人喜悦。因此，有关中国拥有至少10万亿元人民币（合1.47万亿美元）“灰色收入”（即未申报收入）的说法，也许是好消息——政府可针对更多财富征税，中国消费者也可能增加支出。然而，对于非政府机构——国民经济研究所(NERI)近期一项研究发现的结果，中共中央政治局的主要反应应当是失望。
由瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)赞助的这项研究，是基于在全国64个城市进行的逾4000次匿名访谈。它对中国国家统计局(NBS)的官方季度收入报告构成一种核查。在接受官方询问时，中国家庭似乎经常低报自己的财富，因为人们担心税务局获得相关数据。与国家统计局的版本相比，国民经济研究所调查得出的收入平均高出90%。三年前这一差距为78%。
此外，国民经济研究所调查发现，最富裕10%人群的人均收入达到9.7万元人民币，为最贫穷10%人群收入的65倍。在该机构2005年进行的研究中，这一比率为55倍。而国家统计局2008年计算得出的这一比率也达到23倍，足以使中国的基尼指数排名（贫富悬殊的衡量标准）与美国不相上下。非官方的数据意味着中国的贫富悬殊达到了南美国家的程度。
中国总理温家宝曾说：“公平正义比太阳还要有光辉。”他希望帮助最底层的城市工人。即将实施的第12个五年计划预期将在收入分配改革方面采取大动作。得到强有力坊间证据支持的国民经济研究所研究结果似乎表明，他无望获胜。非公开的股票收益、房地产交易、以及塞满现金的红包，正不断加剧中国的贫富悬殊。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034205
It is usually pleasant to find some extra money hidden under the mattress. So the claim that China has at least Rmb10,000bn ($1,470bn) in “grey” or undeclared income might be good news – more wealth for the government to tax and perhaps a bit more potential spending from Chinese consumers. Yet dismay should be the Politburo’s principal response to the findings of a recent study by the National Economic Research Institute, a
non-governmental group.
The study, sponsored by Credit Suisse, is based on more than 4,000 anonymous interviews in 64 cities around the country. It provides a cross-check to the official quarterly income reports from the National Bureau of Statistics. When asked by the authorities, households seem routinely to understate their wealth out of fear that the taxman will get the data. Incomes according to Neri are on average 90 per cent higher than the NBS version. The gap was 78 per cent three years ago.
What is more, the wealthiest 10 per cent have a Neri average per capita income of Rmb97,000, 65 times that of the poorest 10 per cent. That ratio was 55 times in the 2005 Neri study. The 2008 NBS calculation came up with 23, high enough to give China a Gini index ranking, a measure of wealth inequality, on a rough par with the US. The unofficial number places China firmly in South American territory.
Premier Wen Jiabao, for whom fairness and justice are “more glorious than the sun”, wants to help the most downtrodden urban workers. The upcoming 12th five-year economic plan is expected to go big on reforms of income distribution. The Neri study, supported by strong anecdotal evidence, suggests he is fighting a losing battle. Hidden stock gains, property deals and plain old hongbao – red envelopes stuffed with cash – are forcing China’s rich/poor divide wider by the day.
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