力拓(Rio Tinto)与加拿大艾芬豪(Ivanhoe)围绕一处蒙古铜金矿的争执，陷入了僵局。该矿靠近中国边境，开发的资本成本为46亿美元。争执的焦点是力拓获得艾芬豪的多数权益、进而控制其奥尤陶勒盖(Oyu Tolgoi)矿的难易程度。较量之复杂，不亚于沃尔特•司各特爵士(Sir Walter Scott)的小说《艾凡赫》(Ivanhoe)的情节。迄今为止，力拓一直为该项目提供资金，作为交换，该公司对艾芬豪的持股比例不断提升。目前力拓持股30%，但根据一项暂停收购协议，力拓在明年10月之前的持股上限为47%。
随着最后期限的临近，艾芬豪似乎还想在力拓之外，刺激其它投资者的兴趣。不过，不管艾芬豪是否会公开兜售股份，都不会有多大影响。持股22%的艾芬豪董事长罗伯特•弗里德兰(Robert friedland)清楚，自己坐拥的是全球储量最丰富、最具战略意义的矿藏之一，它还毗邻全球最大的铜消费国，因此希望得到适当的股权溢价。在将这片贫瘠的戈壁沙漠变成可作业的铜矿的过程中，力拓提供了全部的资金和技术，目前仍是最显而易见的买家。
但力拓股东不应自满。这是因为，根据最初的奥尤陶勒盖协议，对于任何向第三方出售的股份，力拓仍有优先购买权。力拓必须逐条满足报价条款。
财力雄厚的中国买家也可能会对自家后院的优质矿藏提出令人无法拒绝的报价。中蒙之间有良好的现成铁路线。力拓股东面临的风险在于，他们将不得不为控股权付出高昂的价格。不过，考虑到力拓能以远低于市价的价格执行艾芬豪认股权证和可转换债券，相对容易地在两年内将对艾芬豪的持股比例提升至47%，较低的平均进入成本至少会减小其受到的打击，让它为获得控制权而支付的溢价更容易接受。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
Rio Tinto and Canada's Ivanhoe are locked in a Mongolian stand-off over a copper and gold deposit near the Chinese border with a capital cost of $4.6bn. The dispute, as convoluted as the plot of Sir Walter Scott's novel Ivanhoe, revolves around how easily Rio can take a majority interest in the Vancouver-based miner, so securing control of its Oyu Tolgoi deposit. So far, Rio has financed the project in return for a growing stake in Ivanhoe. It holds about 30 per cent, but is capped by a standstill at 47 per cent until next year.
As that deadline approaches, Ivanhoe appears to want to stimulate the interest of investors other than Rio. Whether an auction materialises hardly matters, however. Ivanhoe boss Robert Friedland, with a 22 per cent stake, knows he is sitting on one of the richest and most strategic mineral deposits anywhere in the world, which even abuts the world's largest consumer of copper, and wants a fitting control premium. Rio, which has provided all the capital and technology to turn this barren strip of the Gobi Desert into a working mine, remains the most obvious buyer.
But Rio shareholders should not be complacent. That's because, under the original Oyu Tolgoi agreement, Rio still has right of first refusal over any shares offered to third parties. It has to match the offer term for term.
With money to burn, a Chinese bidder could make a knockout offer for a prime mineral deposit in their backyard. They even have good rail links in place. The danger for Rio shareholders is that they have to pay a heavy price for control. However, given that Rio can lift its total Ivanhoe shareholding to 47 per cent relatively easily within two years by exercising Ivanhoe warrants and convertible bonds well below current prices, the lower average entry costs will at least lessen the blow, and make the premium it pays for control more palatable.
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