我们都知道,中东和平需要这样的先决条件:以色列和巴勒斯坦同意“两国方案”(two-state solution),在长达60多年的战乱废墟中,依照经谈判修定的1967年边界,建立一个能够自立的巴勒斯坦国,与以色列和平共处。实现这一切所需的,不过是政治意愿、勇敢的领导层和顺应时代潮流。然而,来到以色列和被占领的巴勒斯坦的外人,若想继续重弹这个老调,可能需要越来越多的盲目信念。尽管没有其它可接受的结果,但实现这一切所需的有力的外部干预,出现可能性很小。
在约旦河西岸,你可以看到大片城市发展建设,工程规模超过了欧洲任何地方(或许只有信贷危机前的西班牙南部安达卢西亚海岸才比得上)。这些主要是以色列定居点——在巴勒斯坦领土上非法建立的聚居区,如今居住着约50万人。根据联合国人道主义事务协调厅(UNOCHA)的数据,这样的聚居区共有149处,还有100处边远居民点——这些规模较小的“既成事实”势必会扩张。
奥巴马政府告诉我们,定居点兴建出现了“前所未有的冻结”。那么谁在愚弄谁?所谓的定居点停建势必在9月解禁,届时,巴勒斯坦自治政府主席马哈茂德•阿巴斯(Mahmoud Abbas)与以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)之间所谓的近距离间接谈判,应该会带来一些更具实质性内容的进展,而不是在谈判安排上浪费口舌。让我们希望下一次“冻结”更像真正的“冷冻”吧。目前的情况是,耶路撒冷正逐渐被庞大的以色列郊区包围,该城南面还计划进一步扩建。
此外,根据《奥斯陆协议》(Oslo Agreement),在“C类地区”,巴勒斯坦60%控制区的开发须由以色列决定——这也是这份协议中以色列遵守的少数几项内容之一。在该地区,巴勒斯坦建设受到严格的控制。与此同时,布满西岸的新公路和隧道,将以色列定居点连接起来。巴勒斯坦人除非持有许可,否则禁止进入。
约旦河西岸一些公路检查点已经被拆除。但仍有500多种交通限制,而近期被拆除的68个检查点中,有一些之所以不再有利用价值,是因为修建了隔离墙。隔离墙目前主要(85%)建在西岸地区,侵占了巴勒斯坦9.4%的领土,切断了巴勒斯坦人的生计和与邻里的联系。以色列前总理埃胡德•奥尔默特(Ehud Olmert)曾将隔离墙沿线当作他对巴勒斯坦国边界的定义。而奥尔默特还算是支持巴勒斯坦建国的!
Maale Adumin等新的定居点将耶路撒冷包围,使巴勒斯坦人遭到分隔和孤立,而无论在哪种和解协议中,耶路撒冷都应该是分享的首都。从更加现实的层面讲,巴勒斯坦人现在无法得到6家专业医院的医疗服务。往往在移民团体的支持下,巴勒斯坦人还逐渐被挤出该市。
尽管如此,拉马拉(Ramallah)等西岸部分地区近来经济增长良好,这都得益于巴勒斯坦总理萨拉姆•法耶兹(Salam Fayyad)的政策。在这个黑暗的世界里,法耶兹是一位廉洁的好人。但你看不到的迹象是,一个新的国家将会诞生。耶路撒冷正日渐成为一座孤城。更糟糕的是,正如英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)在土耳其指出的,在无情的围困下,加沙与巴勒斯坦其它地区已彻底隔离。
围困的目的是惩罚生活在那里的150万居民,原因仅仅是哈马斯(Hamas)当局在加沙掌权。外界并没有努力将哈马斯拉入和平谈判——只要他们承诺彻底停火,而是试图孤立他们,忘却了英国在北爱问题上与新芬党(Sinn Fein)/爱尔兰共和军(IRA)打交道时得到的一切教训。
加沙人民并未挨饿。在国际援助下,加上通过埃及边境地下隧道进行走私,他们能维持生存。围困的目的是抑制其经济,推使加沙人寻求埃及不情愿的庇护。
这些都不是两国方案有望实现的明显预兆。此外,巴勒斯坦人口可能会在15年后翻番,而水资源却在迅速消耗。如果“既成事实”仍是最终结果的决定性因素,我们所有人都应当心。除了两国方案,其它唯一选择是什么?想必另一种结果是某种形态的单一国家。但这个国家有可能既是犹太国家,又是民主国家吗?
犹太聚居区不断扩大;规划者继续规划建设;巴勒斯坦人继续被逐离家园;政客们仍在争执、谋划和推诿责任;加沙人忍受着无止境的徒刑煎熬。美国、欧洲、阿拉伯联盟及其它有关各方,现在难道不应努力避免以色列和巴勒斯坦陷入另一场灾难吗?我们应设法结束巴勒斯坦的分裂局面,推动哈马斯和法塔赫(Fatah)达成和解。我们还应在联合国安理会(Security Council)决议中,阐明我们认为巴以协议应包括的内容,然后努力促成这样的协议。如果其它各方不愿向这方面努力,那么欧盟(EU)应单独采取行动。如果我们不很快采取行动,“既成事实”就会获胜。对于该地区乃至我们所有人而言,这都将是一个可怕的前景。
彭定康勋爵(Lord Patten of Barnes)为巴勒斯坦医疗援助组织(Medical Aid for Palestinians)主席
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033902
As we all know, peace will come to the Middle East when Israel and Palestine agree to a two-state solution, with a viable Palestinian state rising from the rubble of more than 60 years of turbulence to live peacefully alongside Israel within the 1967 borders as modified through negotiation. All that is required is political will, brave leadership and a following wind. However, visitors to Israel and occupied Palestine may require increasing quantities of blind faith to go on repeating this mantra. There is no other acceptable outcome. But the chances of the dynamic external interventions necessary for this to happen seem slight.
In the West Bank you see more construction of large urban developments than I have seen anywhere in Europe (apart from perhaps the southern Andalusia coast before the credit crunch). These are primarily Israeli settlements, the colonies planted illegally in Palestinian territory and now housing about half a million people. There are 149 of these colonies according to the UN's Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs and there are a further 100 outposts – the smaller “facts on the ground” that are destined to grow.
As the Obama administration has told us there is an “unprecedented freeze” in settlement activity. Who is fooling whom? What is described as a moratorium on settlement building is destined to end in September when the so-called proximity talks between Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli prime minister, are supposed to lead to something more substantial than simply talking about talking. Let's hope the next freeze is a little chillier. What is happening is that Jerusalem is being ringed by huge Israeli suburbs and further building is planned to the south.
Moreover, under the Oslo Agreement – and this is one of the few parts of the agreement that Israel abides by – the development of 60 per cent of Palestine is determined by Israel in the “Category C zone”. Here, Palestinian construction is tightly controlled. Meanwhile, new highways and tunnels carve up the West Bank joining up the Israeli colonies. They are forbidden to Palestinian travellers unless they have a permit.
Some of the checkpoints on roads in the West Bank have been scrapped. But there are still more than 500 restrictions on traffic and some of the 68 checkpoints recently removed were no longer necessary because of the building of the Wall. This is being built mainly – 85 per cent of it – on West Bank land. It eats up 9.4 per cent of Palestinian territory, dividing families from one another and from their livelihoods. Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister, took the line of the Wall as his definition of what might be the borders of a Palestinian state. And Mr Olmert really wanted one!
The encirclement of Jerusalem by new colonies such as Maale Adumin cuts off Palestinians from what should become, in any settlement, a shared capital. More practically, it separates them today from the six specialist hospitals that serve their needs. Palestinians are also being squeezed out of the city, often with the support of settler groups.
In spite of all this, parts of the West Bank such as Ramallah have seen good economic growth recently, a tribute to the policies of Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister, a good and incorrupt man in a wicked world. But what you cannot point to is the creation of a nascent state. Jerusalem is increasingly cut off. Worse still, as David Cameron highlighted in Turkey, Gaza is totally separated from the rest of Palestine by a brutal siege.
The objective is collective punishment of the one and a half million people who live there simply because they have a Hamas administration. Instead of trying to draw Hamas into peace talks, provided they commit themselves to a complete ceasefire we try to isolate them, forgetting all the lessons we learnt in Northern Ireland when dealing with Sinn Féin/IRA.
People in Gaza are not starving. They are kept alive by international aid, topped up by what can be smuggled through the tunnels below the Egyptian frontier. The aim is to choke the economy and push the Gazans into the unwilling embrace of Egypt.
These are not the obvious harbingers of a two-state solution. Meantime, the Palestinian population is likely to double within just over 15 years and the water resources are rapidly being depleted. If the “facts on the ground” continue to be the determinant of an eventual outcome, we should all hold on to our hats. The only alternative to two states is what? Presumably, the other outcome would be one state in some shape or form. But could that possibly be both Jewish and democratic?
The colonies grow. The planners plot. The evictions continue. The politicians argue, scheme and prevaricate. The Gazans serve their interminable prison sentence. Is it not time for the US, Europe, the Arab League and other concerned parties to rescue Israel and Palestine from a drift to further disaster. We should try to end the fragmentation of Palestine and promote a reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. We should also set out in a Security Council resolution what we think an agreement in Palestine and Israel should comprise, and then work to achieve it. If others will not sign up to this the European Union should go it alone. Unless we act soon, the “facts on the ground” will win the day. That is a grim prospect for the region and the rest of us.
Lord Patten of Barnes is president of Medical Aid for Palestinians
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