日本几乎是一声不吭地交出了位置。在中国更有底气宣称成为世界第二大经济体当日，日本公布了区区0.1%的第二季度增长数据。但中国既是竞争对手，也是合作伙伴：贸易将两个经济体连接在了一起。目前，中国是日本最大的出口市场和主要的进口来源。中国的增长令日本经济受惠。
日本的问题是它自己造成的。在沉溺于出口多年后，日本经济理应转向消费。但在第二季度，国内需求对增长的贡献为负。这就让重担压在了正为日元走强而苦苦挣扎的出口企业身上。
日本政府的选择极其有限。如果说会有任何变化，财政方面的局面很可能变得更糟。旨在促使消费者购买大型家电的慷慨的刺激计划即将到期。政府承诺将削减支出，且刚刚放弃将销售税提高一倍至10%的提议。这意味着政府不太可能出台另一项财政刺激计划。即使真的出台了，鉴于日本的财政状况如此一团糟，许多人会把国家发的钱存起来，准备应对预期中的加税。
出口企业现在开始担心日元——近期日元被当作一个安全港，尽管日本经济困难重重。这已经将日元兑美元汇率推高至85日元兑1美元。随着欧洲（尤其是德国）竞争对手从欧元走弱中受惠，这对日本经济造成了伤害。但由于国际上的关注使政府不便干预汇市，日本除了发表言论试图压低日元汇率外，不太可能采取实际步骤。
这就只剩下货币政策了。0.1%的利率已低至极限。但鉴于逐渐恶化的通缩所带来的风险，政策仍然太紧缩了。对日本来说，最好的办法是积极拥抱非传统的货币政策。适当的反通缩行动可能会带来日元贬值的副作用，为日本出口企业提供急需的刺激。从短期看，这是日本所能期待的最好结果。
长期的解决办法将不得不改变日本企业的节俭天性。日本企业年派息总额仅占国民产出的3.5%。而在企业营运利润相仿的德国，这一数字是14%。向股东返还更多，有望促进私人消费。这将是关键出路。中国的崛起让日本出口企业得以维持，但只有国内需求才会让日本经济免于崩盘。
译者/陈云飞
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034134
Japan has given up its crown with barely a whimper. On the day that China strengthened its claim to be the world's second-biggest economy, Japan released second-quarter figures showing growth of a measly 0.1 per cent. Yet the crown passes to a partner as much as a rival: trade ties the two economies together. China is now Japan's largest export market and its main source of imports. Chinese growth is a boon for Japan's economy.
Japan's problems are of its own making. The economy is meant to be shifting towards consumption after years of export-addiction. But domestic demand made a negative contribution to growth in the second quarter. That has left exporters, struggling with a strong yen, doing all the heavy lifting.
The government has very few options. The fiscal side, if anything, is liable to worsen. Generous incentives aimed at getting consumers to buy white goods are about to run out. The government is committed to cutting spending and is only now walking away from a proposal to double sales tax to 10 per cent. That makes another fiscal stimulus very unlikely. Even in the event of another stimulus, with Japan's finances in such a mess, many may save any handouts on the expectation of higher taxes to come.
Exporters are starting to worry about the yen, which has been treated as a safe haven currency despite Japan's economic woes. That has pushed the value to ¥85 to the dollar. With European (especially German) competitors benefiting from a weak euro, this hurts. But international concerns tell against currency intervention, so Japan is unlikely to take steps beyond talking down the yen.
This leaves monetary policy. At 0.1 per cent, interest rates are already as low as practicable. But given the risks posed by worsening deflation policy is still too tight. Japan's best bet is a vigorous embrace of unconventional monetary policies. Proper anti-deflationary action could have the side-effect of weakening the yen, giving Japanese exporters a much-needed shot in the arm. In the short term, this is the best Japan can hope for.
A long-term solution will have to address the frugality of Japan's corporations. Annual dividend payments are worth just 3.5 per cent of national output. In Germany, where operating profits are similar, the figure is 14 per cent. Returning more to shareholders could boost private consumption. This will be key. China's rise has kept Japanese exporters afloat; but it is domestic demand that will save Japan from drowning.
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