对经济学家来说，中国在名义经济总量上超越日本、成为全球第二大经济体几乎是没有意义的。
用经济上更重要的购买力指标来衡量，中国几乎在10年前就已超越日本，而按名义美元计算的中国国内生产总值(GDP)超越日本的精确时刻，在很大程度上与汇率和技术性的统计修正相关。
为说明这一点，经济学家会告诉你，如果今天用同样的材料和劳动力在中日两国建造相同的房子，在日本产生的GDP将是中国的三倍，因为日本的一切都贵得多。
但对非经济学家来说，中国上升至第二经济大国的地位是重要的（即使现在尚未实现，今年内也肯定会实现），因为这代表着全球经济和政治实力的转移。
这对中国政府以及它如何处理与世界其它地区的关系也是重要的，因为中国在GDP榜单上名次上升所象征的成功，将带来更大程度的关注，以及对北京方面在世界舞台上担负更多责任的期望。
"长期以来，中国的外交政策一直是保持低姿态，但中国现在是全球最大出口国，第二大经济体，还将在明年成为最大能源消费国。所有这些里程碑都意味着，中国能躲的地方越来越少了，"经济咨询公司龙洲经讯(Dragonomics)的董事总经理葛艺豪(Arthur Kroeber)表示。"这个国家还没有完全准备好扮演自己的新角色，而是希望尽量拖延。"
中国已变得相当善于将本国不断增长的经济实力转化为政治和外交影响力，特别是在拉美和非洲等对西方政策和利益存在怨恨的地区。
拥有全球最大外汇储备的中国，已对美元作为全球主要储备货币的角色发起挑战，并领头推动国际货币基金组织(IMF)等全球组织更加公平地分配席位。
但在北京，官员们坚称，中国仍是一个发展中国家，外界不能指望中国领导全球努力或采取艰难的步骤——如削减碳排放或让人民币自由浮动——来应对贸易失衡。
他们指出，中国的人均GDP为大约3600美元，还不到日本或美国的十分之一、法国或英国的六分之一。
一些直言不讳的中国专家还指出，与其它国家相比，中国的增长质量较差。
"自2003年以来，中国的经济增长一直依靠两大支柱：出口和房地产，尽管前者给中国带来一些现代化效益，但后者造成了不少严重问题，"政府背景的智库——中国社会科学院金融研究所金融发展室的主任易宪容表示。
"房地产市场的增长是以土地资源管理不善和房地产投机为基础的，结果就是节节上涨的房价和最终必须刺破的房地产泡沫。"
易宪容还指出，中国的收入差距相当大，而相对富裕的沿海地区和贫穷的内陆地区之间也存在地理上的不平衡。
但是，这些严重问题和中国领导层面对的不少其它问题，是外部世界基本上看不到的。在外人眼里，中国就是一个快速增长的经济体，由一个不透明而且有些落伍的威权政府管理着。
"一个重要问题是，中国是否将接受伴随着领先经济大国地位而来的种种责任，即便它仍是一个中等收入国家，"美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)教授、IMF中国部前主任埃斯瓦•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034135
To economists, China overtaking Japan as the world's second largest economy in nominal terms is almost meaningless.
In more economically important purchasing power terms China overtook Japan almost a decade ago, and the exact moment when China's nominal US dollar gross domestic product surpasses Japan's has a lot to do with exchange rates and technical statistical revisions.
To illustrate the point, an economist will tell you that identical houses built in both countries using the same materials and labour today creates three times as much GDP in Japan as it does in China because everything in Japan costs a lot more.
But for all non-economists, China's jump to the number-two spot – something that will happen this year if it has not already – is important because it represents a shift in global economic and political power.
It is also important to the Chinese government and how it relates to the rest of the world, as the success symbolised by its rise in the GDP rankings will bring greater scrutiny and an expectation Beijing will assume more responsibility on the world stage.
"China's foreign policy has long been to maintain a low profile, but it is now the number-one exporter, the number-two economy and will be the number-one energy consumer by next year. All of these milestones mean China has fewer places to hide," according to Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics research consultancy. "The country is not quite ready for its new role and would like to put it off for as long as it can."
China has become adept at translating its rising economic power into political and diplomatic influence, especially in regions such as Latin America and Africa where there is resentment towards western policies and interests.
As the owner of the world's largest pile of foreign exchange reserves, Beijing has also publicly challenged the role of the US dollar as the main global reserve currency and has led the drive for more equitable representation on global bodies such as the International Monetary Fund.
But officials in Beijing insist China is still a developing country and cannot be expected to lead global initiatives or take difficult steps such as reducing carbon emissions or floating its currency to address trade imbalances.
They note China's per capita GDP of about $3,600 (€2,800, £2,300) is less than a 10th that of Japan or the US and less than one sixth that of France and the UK.
Some outspoken Chinese experts also point to the poor quality of China's growth compared with other countries.
"Since 2003, China's economic growth has relied on two pillars: exports and real estate, and while the former brought China some benefits in terms of modernisation, the latter has caused many serious problems," says Yi Xianrong, director of the Finance Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-backed think-tank.
"The growth in the real estate market is based on the mismanagement of land resources and property speculation, leading to skyrocketing house prices and a real estate bubble that must eventually be deflated."
Mr Yi also points to China's large income gap and the geographic imbalances between its relatively wealthy coastal regions and impoverished hinterland.
But these serious problems and many others facing the Chinese leadership are largely invisible to the outside world, which sees only a fast-growing economy managed by an opaque and somewhat anachronistic authoritarian regime.
"An important question is whether China will accept the responsibilities that come with being a leading economic power even though it remains a middle-income country," according to Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and former head of the IMF's China division.
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