是不是有人曾说过中国人消费不足？3月份中国家电下乡销售额同比增长179%的消息，无疑表明真实情况并非如此。
与中国政府费力做出的多数统计数字一样，人们也不应轻易相信上述数字的准确性。然而，上述数字得到了另一项有助于解释这股购物热潮的统计数字的支持：2010年，农村居民纯收入增速超过了城镇居民，这是1997年以来的头一次。
据《中国日报》(China Daily)一篇文章报道，3月份，家电下乡实现销售额344.8亿元人民币（合53亿美元），同比激增179%；销售量为1470万台，同比激增135%。
中国政府在2009年出台的补贴政策提振了销售额。这些补贴政策定于明年取消，所以不要指望179%的销售额增幅会成为每年的常态。
根据补贴政策，农村居民在购买包括冰箱、电视机、洗衣机、电脑、空调、手机、热水器、微波炉和传统烤箱在内的若干种家电时，可享受市价13%的折扣。
因此，我们对2009年家电下乡销售额同样实现167%的同比增幅并不觉得惊讶。此外，尽管3月份的数字只是证实了中国官员早已清楚的事实，但对于一面警惕经济过热、一面渴望提振国内消费且把全面增长当作自己首要任务的中国当局来说，看到这样的数字仍是值得高兴的。
里昂证券亚太市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)驻上海中国宏观策略师罗福万(Andy Rothman)向Beyondbrics表示：“虽然中共确实希望经济增长稍稍放慢脚步，但（消费）这块实际上是他们希望能加速增长的，为的是抵消未来五年左右的时间里投资增长减速的影响。”
不过，政府补贴并非农村居民消费增长的唯一原因。农民纯收入的不断增长也是原因之一。
2010年，农村居民纯收入增速升至创纪录水平，而且超过了城镇居民可支配收入增速（请见下方由里昂证券提供的图表1）。这两项收入指标大致相当，但中国国家统计局为它们冠以不同的名称。
在本文讨论的情况中，收入包括低保和失业救济金等政府支付款项，但罗福万表示，收入增长的主要驱动力“来自于十年来年工资水平的两位数增长”。
政府扩大基础设施项目支出，也是农村消费增长的原因之一，它降低了企业分销自己产品的难度。
此外，农村地区新建住房也呈现激增（请见下方由里昂证券提供的图表2），通自来水和通电的住户数量也随之大幅增长，而自来水和电是上述各种家电运转的必备条件。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001037971
Did somebody say Chinese people aren’t consuming enough? News that home appliance sales in rural areas increased by 179 per cent in March would certainly suggest otherwise.
As with most statistics churned out by the Chinese government, the numbers come with a caveat. But they are supported by another statistic that helps explain the shopping spree: rural net incomes grew at a faster rate than urban ones in 2010, for the first time since 1997.
Sales of home appliances were worth Rmb34.48bn ($5.3bn) in March, a leap of 179 per cent on March 2010, according to an article in the China Daily. The number of appliances sold jumped 135 per cent, to 14.7m.
Sales were boosted by government subsidies introduced in 2009 and due to be withdrawn next year – so don’t expect 179 per cent sales growth to be an annual fixture.
The subsidies give a 13 per cent discount to rural residents on listed price of appliances including refrigerators, televisions, washing machines, computers, air conditioners, mobile phones, water heaters, microwave ovens and traditional ovens.
So it’s no surprise that rural sales of home appliances were also up 167 per cent for the year in 2009. And though the March data do little more than confirm what officials already knew, they will still be welcomed by authorities who, while cautious about an overheating economy, are keen to promote domestic consumption and have made inclusive growth top of their agenda.
Andy Rothman, Shanghai-based China macro strategist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets told beyondbrics: “While the party does want slightly slower growth, this is actually a part (consumption) that they want to accelerate, to compensate for slower investment growth in about 5 years”
But government subsidies aren’t the only reason why rural residents are consuming more. Another driver has been rising rural net incomes.
Rural income growth reached its highest rate in 2010 and also surpassed the rate of growth in urban disposable income growth (see chart 1 below from CLSA). The figures are roughly comparable but have been given two different names by China’s statistics bureau.
Income in this case includes government payments such as low-income and unemployment benefits but the main driver of the increase in incomes, according to Rothman, “has been a decade of double-digit annual wage growth”.
Other reasons for growth in rural consumption include an increase in public expenditure on infrastructure projects, making it easier for companies to distribute their products.
In addition, new construction in rural areas has rocketed (see chart 2 from CLSA), and so in turn the number of homes with running water and power – to run all those appliances.
没有评论:
发表评论