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在中国福建省晋江市的一个工厂里，工人正在生产玩具。
政
府数据显示，中国3月份贸易实现了小幅顺差，但整个一季度仍有10.2亿美元的逆差。这是七年来首现季度逆差，反映了世界最大出口国所进口大宗商品价格上涨的影响。以下是分析师评说。要是过去12个月大宗商品价格没有飙升，情况将显得完全不同。我们估计，如果中国进口大宗商品的价格跟一年前一样，一季度会有250亿美元的顺差。中国上个月关键大宗商品的进口在数量上相对疲弱……贸易顺差不可否认地收窄了，哪怕这种变化背后的推动力并不是政府长期表示希望促成的消费支出增加。所以如果今天的大宗商品价格得不到维持，事实将证明顺差的收窄只是一时的。──威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)，Capital Economics
总体数据──也就是中国在2004年以来首现季度贸易逆差──或许意味着再平衡进程取得了某种重要的进展，但下这样一个大胆的判断仍然为时过早。2月份逆差大得足以使整个季度呈现为逆差，而3月份数据又显示向顺差回归（只是幅度相当温和），所以整个趋势是显而易见的。2011年应当会呈现为2,500亿美元左右的顺差，约占预期GDP的3.5%，不过相当疲弱的一季度数据显示了中国在国际市场上面临的下行风险，所以全年顺差可能会小于起初预料。──Xianfang Ren、桑顿(Alistair Thornton)，IHS Global Insight
由于实体经济活跃和物价上涨的双重原因，贸易增长将保持强劲，但贸易增速将会因为基数效应等原因出现一定的下降。因为油价上涨，中国的贸易条件正变得越来越差，所以中国贸易顺差的收缩可能比市场预料的快很多。月度逆差仍有可能出现，但全年的贸易极有可能保持在顺差水平，只不过幅度要小一些。但我们预测的2011年贸易顺差（1,500亿美元），现在已经面临着更多的下行风险。──陆挺，美银美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)
这明显是受到了日本地震的影响。3月份来自日本的进口增长出现放缓，即使是相对2月份也呈现为放缓。与此同时，对日出口增长保持坚挺，反弹至高于2月份以前的水平。地震及其余震造成的中断可能会在接下来几个月产生类似的影响。对美国顺差和对欧洲顺差较2月份双双反弹，但都是去年4月份以来的倒数第二水平。──彭程、丁爽、沈明高、Ben Wei，花旗集团(Citigroup)
Aaron Back
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
China eked out a small trade surplus in March, the government said, but it was still left with a $1.02 billion deficit in the first quarter, its first quarterly deficit in seven years, highlighting the impact of rising prices for imported commodities on the world's biggest exporting nation. Analysts weigh in:
The situation would look very different if commodity prices had not soared in the last 12 months. We estimate that the first quarter surplus would have been $25bn if China had paid the same price for commodity imports as it did a year ago. China's imports of key commodities last month were relatively weak in volume terms...The trade surplus has undeniably narrowed, even if the driver of the shift has not been the pick-up in consumer spending that the government has long said it wants to engineer. That means it will prove short-lived if today's commodity prices are not sustained. -- Mark Williams, Capital Economics
The headline data -- that China recorded its first quarterly trade deficit since 2004 -- may suggest some significant progress on the rebalancing agenda, but it remains far too early to make such a bold call. February's deficit was large enough to pull the whole quarter into deficit, and with March data showing a return to surplus -- albeit a rather mild one -- it is clear where the trend is going. 2011 should see a surplus of around US$ 250 billion, at around 3.5% of projected GDP, although the rather weak Q1 is indicative of the downside risks China faces internationally, and as such, the full-year surplus might be smaller than initially expected. -- Xianfang Ren and Alistair Thornton, IHS Global Insight
Trade growth will remain robust due both to the robust real economy and to rising prices, though we will see some decline in trade growth due partially to base effects. Terms of trade is getting worse for China on surging oil prices, so China's trade surplus could shrink much faster than the market has expected. Monthly deficits are still possible, but for the full year, China's trade will most likely stay in surplus (though smaller). However, we now see more downside risk to our forecast of US$150bn trade surplus in 2011. -- Lu Ting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
Visible impact from Japan earthquake. Growth of imports from Japan slowed down in March, even compared to Feb. Meanwhile, growth of exports to Japan held firm, recovering to stronger than pre-Feb levels. The disruptions from the quake and its aftershocks would likely continue to have similar impact in coming months. The surpluses with the US and EU both rebounded from Feb, but are both the second lowest level since last April. -- Keng Peng, Shuang Ding, Minggao Shen, and Ben Wei, Citigroup
Aaron Back
The situation would look very different if commodity prices had not soared in the last 12 months. We estimate that the first quarter surplus would have been $25bn if China had paid the same price for commodity imports as it did a year ago. China's imports of key commodities last month were relatively weak in volume terms...The trade surplus has undeniably narrowed, even if the driver of the shift has not been the pick-up in consumer spending that the government has long said it wants to engineer. That means it will prove short-lived if today's commodity prices are not sustained. -- Mark Williams, Capital Economics
The headline data -- that China recorded its first quarterly trade deficit since 2004 -- may suggest some significant progress on the rebalancing agenda, but it remains far too early to make such a bold call. February's deficit was large enough to pull the whole quarter into deficit, and with March data showing a return to surplus -- albeit a rather mild one -- it is clear where the trend is going. 2011 should see a surplus of around US$ 250 billion, at around 3.5% of projected GDP, although the rather weak Q1 is indicative of the downside risks China faces internationally, and as such, the full-year surplus might be smaller than initially expected. -- Xianfang Ren and Alistair Thornton, IHS Global Insight
Trade growth will remain robust due both to the robust real economy and to rising prices, though we will see some decline in trade growth due partially to base effects. Terms of trade is getting worse for China on surging oil prices, so China's trade surplus could shrink much faster than the market has expected. Monthly deficits are still possible, but for the full year, China's trade will most likely stay in surplus (though smaller). However, we now see more downside risk to our forecast of US$150bn trade surplus in 2011. -- Lu Ting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
Visible impact from Japan earthquake. Growth of imports from Japan slowed down in March, even compared to Feb. Meanwhile, growth of exports to Japan held firm, recovering to stronger than pre-Feb levels. The disruptions from the quake and its aftershocks would likely continue to have similar impact in coming months. The surpluses with the US and EU both rebounded from Feb, but are both the second lowest level since last April. -- Keng Peng, Shuang Ding, Minggao Shen, and Ben Wei, Citigroup
Aaron Back
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