忘
掉愤怒的小鸟，准备好迎接小肥羊的爆发吧。在中国餐饮业位居领先地位的百胜餐饮集团(Yum Brands)计划在已持有火锅连锁店小肥羊27%股权的基础上，将其整个吃下。百胜开始扩大在华业务的原因一目了然。百胜在华营业利润占了2010年总营业利润的43%，年增速为26%，而在美国增速只有3%。
百胜在中国一直享受着爆炸性的增长，肯德基(KFC)门店从2001年的500家增至2010年的3,244家。不过，凭藉自身业务发展实现的增长至此也就到头了。通亚公司(Access Asia)的格莱博(Mathew Crabbe)说，进军火锅生意是有道理的，因为这样可以避免与百胜在华现有业务形成竞争关系。目前，百胜在华业务已经通过肯德基和必胜客(Pizza Hut)涵盖了西式快餐。
百胜收购小肥羊有风险。小肥羊市值6.60亿美元，有480家门店，在争夺消费者方面，面临着同样做火锅生意的海底捞和呷哺呷哺的竞争。成本不断上升的农产品和不断上涨的工资加在一起通常占餐馆运营成本的约三分之二，可能会侵蚀利润率。
不过，小肥羊并不是中国市盈率最高的餐馆运营商。该公司2011年的市盈率为18倍，与百胜的市盈率大体相仿，但远远低于中国内地日式连锁餐馆味千拉面27倍的市盈率。假如股价有50%的溢价（这在香港上市的公司中相当普遍），那么百胜将支付7.20亿美元，对应小肥羊的市盈率为27倍。价格不菲，但这就是通过收购中国公司来实现增长的价格。如果百胜能够利用自身在中国的规模来增加收益、提振利润率，那么这个价格看起来还是出得起的。
由于连锁餐馆能够更好地应对消费者对食品安全的担忧、更好地控制不断上涨的原材料和工资，预计麦当劳(McDonald's)等公司会效仿百胜。不过，在小肥羊之后，可供这些公司吃下的成规模餐饮企业也不多了。
Tom Orlik
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
Forget Angry Birds, get ready for an explosion of Little Sheep.
Yum Brands, a leader in China's restaurant industry, plans to take its 27% stake in hot-pot chain Little Sheep Group to full ownership. No prizes for guessing why Yum is supersizing its China business. China accounted for 43% of Yum's operating profit in 2010 and rose 26% year on year, versus 3% in the U.S.
Yum has enjoyed explosive growth in China, taking its KFC stores from 500 in 2001 to 3,244 in 2010. But organic growth can go only so far. Mathew Crabbe of Access Asia says a move into hot pot makes sense because it avoids competing with Yum's existing Chinese businesses, which already cover Western fast food through KFC and Pizza Hut brands.
There are risks. Little Sheep, with a market capitalization of $660 million and 480 restaurants, faces brands such as Hai Di Lao and Xiabu Xiabu jostling for customers in a similar market space. Rising costs for agricultural products and higher wages, which together make up about two-thirds of restaurants' operating costs, risk eating into profit margins.
But Little Sheep isn't the most expensive Chinese restaurant operator. Its price/earnings ratio of 18 for 2011 is roughly in line with Yum's own but is far short of, say, Ajisen, a chain of Japanese-style restaurants on the mainland trading at 27 times. A 50% premium to the share price, fairly conventional for companies listed in Hong Kong, would see Yum forking out $720 million and paying 27 times earnings for Little Sheep. Expensive, but that is the price of buying Chinese growth. If Yum can use its scale in China to increase earnings and boost margins, it looks manageable.
With chain restaurants better able to address consumers' concerns about food safety, and control rising costs for raw materials and wages, expect the likes of McDonald's to follow Yum's lead. But after Little Sheep there will be few sizable bites left on the table.
Tom Orlik
Yum Brands, a leader in China's restaurant industry, plans to take its 27% stake in hot-pot chain Little Sheep Group to full ownership. No prizes for guessing why Yum is supersizing its China business. China accounted for 43% of Yum's operating profit in 2010 and rose 26% year on year, versus 3% in the U.S.
Yum has enjoyed explosive growth in China, taking its KFC stores from 500 in 2001 to 3,244 in 2010. But organic growth can go only so far. Mathew Crabbe of Access Asia says a move into hot pot makes sense because it avoids competing with Yum's existing Chinese businesses, which already cover Western fast food through KFC and Pizza Hut brands.
There are risks. Little Sheep, with a market capitalization of $660 million and 480 restaurants, faces brands such as Hai Di Lao and Xiabu Xiabu jostling for customers in a similar market space. Rising costs for agricultural products and higher wages, which together make up about two-thirds of restaurants' operating costs, risk eating into profit margins.
But Little Sheep isn't the most expensive Chinese restaurant operator. Its price/earnings ratio of 18 for 2011 is roughly in line with Yum's own but is far short of, say, Ajisen, a chain of Japanese-style restaurants on the mainland trading at 27 times. A 50% premium to the share price, fairly conventional for companies listed in Hong Kong, would see Yum forking out $720 million and paying 27 times earnings for Little Sheep. Expensive, but that is the price of buying Chinese growth. If Yum can use its scale in China to increase earnings and boost margins, it looks manageable.
With chain restaurants better able to address consumers' concerns about food safety, and control rising costs for raw materials and wages, expect the likes of McDonald's to follow Yum's lead. But after Little Sheep there will be few sizable bites left on the table.
Tom Orlik
没有评论:
发表评论