印
度2010年人口达到12.1亿。到2020年，印度人口预计将达到13.7亿，2030年达到14.8亿。届时印度人口规模将超过中国。现在想想看：印度15至64岁的劳动年龄人口预计将从2010年的7.81亿增加到2020年的9.16亿，2030年将达到惊人的10.2亿。
还有一点：2010年，印度有一半人口年龄在25岁以下。而到了2030年，其一半人口年龄仍低于28岁。
这样看来，印度在未来20年都会是一个非常年轻的国家。上述非常有利的印度人口统计学数据表明印度可能享受庞大的"人口红利"，即庞大的年轻劳动人口规模可能大力推动印度的经济繁荣。
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
到2020年，印度人口预计将达到13.7亿，2030年达到14.8亿。届时印度人口规模将超过中国。
印度的发展势头能否像中国一样？我们并不是说要超过中国或者美国。那是不可能的。但印度能否利用其人口红利，实现重大的经济回报，从而极大地改变数亿贫困民众的生活状况？
印度会享受到人口红利带来的回报，但不会像中国那么丰厚。印度最多能实现2010-2025年以美元计算的名义人均GDP增长3.5至4倍，大约是中国在1995-2010年期间增长倍数的一半。虽然印度人口总体年轻，但在2025年之前，中国的受供养人口年龄比率仍比印度更为有利。（该比率是年龄太小或太大、无力工作的人口相对于劳动年龄成年人口的比例。）
中印两国都拥有发展势头，但中国的结构性因素远远优于印度，因此印度无法获得与中国同样的优势。
按行业划分，印度农业、服务业和工业的GDP占比分别为17%、28%和55%。而这三个行业所雇用的劳动人口比例分别为52%、14%和34%。服务业占GDP的比例偏低，这在印度这样一个较为贫困的国家是反常现象。印度服务性职业绝大多数是在低层次、低薪酬的行业。工业在GDP中的较高占比则是受IT行业和软件行业等推动，这些行业并不雇用大量人员。
同样令人担忧的还有工业就业率的低水平，工业本应成为推动印度这类贫困国家GDP增长的动力。相比农业或低层次的服务性就业，工厂的工业性就业更直接地与实际生产力的增长相关联。
有人认为，由于印度在制造方面远远落后于中国，印度应当将重点放在"知识经济"，而非"制造经济"。我们认为这只是一厢情愿的想法。
印度需要数以亿计的能提供不错薪水的生产性职位，而只有工业性就业能够提供这样的职位。即使这类商品的生产达不到出口的质量要求，也仍然能够提供有收入的就业机会。而雇用人数少得多的"知识经济"则可以作为出口引擎。
雇用逾50%劳动人口的农业效率极为低下。其低效是多种原因导致的，包括农场规模太小，土地管理不善，依赖雨水或地下水等变化莫测的水供应，差劲的供应链造成浪费、同时给农民的报酬太低，有时政府给出的价格也很低，这些都降低了人们种植农作物的动力。
总体上，印度只有60%的可工作人口在工作，而中国这一比例高达85%。
印度绝大多数就业都是由那些员工人数低于10个的公司和非正规部门创造的，这是造成印度生产力低下的主要原因。这一数据反映出，印度的劳动人口在农业、工业和服务业这三大产业中其生产效率只有中国劳动人口的一半。
劳动人口较少，再加之劳动效率较低，这两者综合在一起是对印度的双重打击。
即使在未来15年每年新增1,300万至1,400万就业的有利条件下，印度生产性工作的数量仍将不足以吸收不断发展壮大的劳动力。到2025年，印度雇用劳动力占总人口的比例仅增至70%。
印度的教育情况令人堪忧，八个孩子当中仅有约一人可以完成从一年级到12年级的学业。据世界银行(World Bank)的统计，印度15岁及以上年龄人的识字率较低，在114个国家中排在80多名以后的位置。虽然印度每年有250万至300万名大学毕业生，但一项全国调查指出，在15至29岁的印度人中，只有2%接受过正规的职业培训，而仅有8%接受过非正规职业培训。
业界估测数据也指出，仅有25%的印度工科毕业生有资格到跨国公司工作。在这种情况下，很多公司只好自掏腰包对毕业生进行再培训。
能源需求是印度经济增长的主要推动力。据印度政府的统计，若要将未来20年印度GDP的增长预测变为现实，印度的能源容量需要翻两番。推动印度基础设施发展所需的能源规模十分巨大，令人望而生畏，要依靠印度本国资源实现这个规模不太可能，因此需要大规模进口煤炭和石油，而这将增加投入成本，贸易逆差余额将明显增大，GDP增长将受到影响。
印度政府早已面临预算赤字的问题，不得不向资本市场举债来履行义务。印度政府已宣布，在第11个五年规划(2012年之前)中投资5,000亿美元发展基础设施建设，在第12个五年规划中投资1万亿美元。这些规模庞大的投资实现的可能性不大，因为其中很大一部分投资来自私营部门，而收益不确定、腐败和官僚干预将对私营部门的投资参与造成负面影响。
鉴于此，印度要怎么做呢？教育方面持续、大规模的投资(例如，从当前占GDP3.8%提高至5%)对于提高国民基本素质和技能很有必要，不过考虑到印度在国家和各州级的预算赤字，目前还不清楚如何才能实现这一目标。要将非生产性的农场工人变为生产性的产业工人，印度必须实行职业教育。为建设所有的基础设施，印度需要成千上万、各行各业的合格劳动者，如电工、木工、水管工、砌砖工、砌筑工、供热、通风和空调承包商以及信息技术和安全承包商等等。
印度的耕地面积在世界上排名第二，仅次于美国。印度目前亟需进行土地改革，必须提高农场规模，让机械化来提高生产力，价格也必须合理化，以激励生产。印度的食品通胀率很高，这一点对贫困人口的影响最大。迅速增加的印度人口将使食品短缺问题雪上加霜，可能会由此发生影响印度经济增长的巨大社会动荡。
跟社会主义国家的中国相比，印度这个民主国家在劳动政策方面更僵化，投资环境也更差，这是印度生产力不足中国生产力一半的一大原因。印度应实施灵活的劳动法，以改善投资环境，提高工人的生产效率。
中国在持续改善基础设施建设之前，首先改善了其农业基础，这是正确的选择。中国良好的基础设施建设吸引了大量外国直接投资，在25年的时间里形成了一个良性的增长和投资循环。印度对农业的重视程度不够，这意味着印度未能明显改善占劳动人口一半的农民的生活质量。
2025年，印度将会成为全球第六或第七大经济体，但不会富足到让大约3亿国民的生活发生重大改变，届时他们仍将以每天低于3至4美元的生活标准度日。
Lakshman Krishnamurthi/Sugandha Khandelwal
（编者注：Lakshman Krishnamurthi是西北大学凯洛格商学院市场营销学教授; Sugandha Khandelwal是西北大学凯洛格商学院前副研究员）
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
India ended 2010 with a population of 1.21 billion. The population is expected to hit 1.37 billion by 2020 and 1.48 billion in 2030. At that point, India's population will overtake China's.
Now consider this: The number of people in the working-age population aged 15 to 64 is expected to increase from 781 million in 2010 to 916 million in 2020 to a staggering 1.02 billion in 2030.
And this: Half the population of India was younger than 25 in 2010. That will only change to half the population being under 28 in 2030.
So, India will remain a very young country for the next 20 years. These favorable demographic statistics in India point to the potential of a large 'demographic dividend' where the enormous size of the young, working population could turbo-charge the prosperity of the country.
China in just 15 years, between 1995 and 2010, leveraged its 'demographic dividend' to build the world's second-largest economy after the U.S. and will overtake the U.S. within the next 20 years. Chinese nominal per capita gross domestic product in dollars increased seven-fold between 1995 and 2010!
Can India ride the same winds? We don't mean overtaking China or the U.S. That simply will not happen. But can India leverage its demographic dividend into a substantial economic payoff which will significantly change the lives of hundreds of millions of the poor?
There will be a payoff but it will not be as large as China's. The best India can hope for is that nominal per capita GDP in dollars will increase by a factor of 3.5 to 4 between 2010 and 2025, about half what China achieved between 1995 and 2010. Even though India is a young country, the age dependency ratio still favors China over India till 2025. (The ratio is the proportion of people too young or too old to work to the number of working-age adults.)
Both countries have momentum but China's structural factors are far superior to India's so India will not get the same leverage.
India's sector GDP is split 17%, 28%, and 55% in agriculture, services, and industry, respectively. The employed workforce split 52%, 14%, 34%, respectively. The disproportionate services GDP contribution is an anomaly in a poorer country like India. The vast majority of service employment in India is in low-level and low-paying industries. The contribution of higher-level industries to the services GDP is driven by the information technology and software sectors which do not employ large numbers of people.
Equally worrisome is the low percentage of employment in industry, which should be the GDP driver of a poorer country like India. Industrial employment in factories is more directly connected to real productivity growth than agricultural or low-level service employment.
There is some talk that India should focus on the 'knowledge economy' instead of the 'manufacturing economy' given that the country is badly trailing China in manufacturing. We believe this is wishful thinking.
India needs hundreds of millions of productive, decent-wage jobs which can only be provided by industrial employment. Even if production of such goods is not of exportable quality, it will still provide gainful employment. The 'knowledge economy,' which will employ far fewer people, can serve as the export engine.
The agricultural sector, which employs over 50% of the workforce, is extremely inefficient. Agricultural inefficiency is a combination of small farms, poor land management, dependence on the vagaries of water supply whether it be rains or ground water, a poor supply chain that wastes food and provides low remuneration to farmers, and in some cases low prices paid by the government, which reduces the incentive to produce crops.
Overall, only around 60% of the population available to work is working, which compares poorly to China's number of 85%.
The vast majority of employment is in enterprises with fewer than 10 employees, and in the informal sector, which is a major cause for the low productivity. The data reflect that India's workforce is only half as productive as China's in all three sectors (agriculture, industry, and services).
The combination of fewer people working and not working efficiently is a double whammy.
Even with favorable job creation of 13 to 14 million new jobs annually over the next 15 years, there will not be enough productive jobs available to absorb the increasing work force with the proportion employed rising to only 70% in 2025.
Indian education is in a dismal state with only about one out of eight children who start first grade graduating from 12 grade. According to World Bank data, India's literacy rate for ages 15 and above places it in the last quartile of 114 countries. Even though the country produces 2.5 million to 3 million college graduates a year, a national survey notes that among persons aged 15 to 29, only 2% have received formal vocational training and just 8% non-formal vocational training.
Industry estimates also note that only 25% of the engineering graduates are qualified to work for a multinational company, leading many companies to invest in retraining graduates.
Energy is the prime driver of economic growth. To deliver the GDP growth forecast over the next 20 years would require a quadrupling of energy capacity, according to the Indian government. The energy required to fuel infrastructure growth is daunting and is unlikely to be met and would require massive importation of coal and oil. That will raise input costs, leading to significant balance of trade deficits, and crimp GDP growth.
Already, the Indian government runs a budget deficit and has to borrow from the capital markets to meet its obligations. The government has announced infrastructure investments of $500 billion in the 11 five-year plan that runs to 2012 and $1 trillion in the next. These enormous investments are unlikely to be realized because a significant amount has to come from the private sector. Uncertain returns, corruption and bureaucratic meddling will negatively impact private-sector participation.
What does India need to do? A sustained and massive investment in education, an increase from the current 3.8% of GDP to 5%, is necessary to improve both basic literacy and skills though given the budget deficits at the national and state levels, it is not clear how this can be done. Vocational education is imperative to move unproductive farm workers to productive industrial workers. The country needs tens of thousands of qualified trades-people like electricians, carpenters, plumbers, bricklayers, masonry workers, HVAC contractors, IT and security contractors, and so on for all the infrastructure that is expected to be built.
India has the second-largest amount of arable land after the U.S. Land reforms are urgently needed, farm sizes must get bigger allowing mechanization to improve productivity, and prices must be rationalized to incentivize production. Food inflation in India is high which hurts the poor the most. The burgeoning population will exacerbate food shortages, with the potential for massive social unrest derailing growth.
Democratic India has more rigid labor policies and a weaker investment climate than communist China, a big reason for productivity across the board being less than half of China's. Flexible labor laws are needed to improve the investment climate and increase worker productivity.
China made the right bet in improving its agricultural base first before sustained improvement in infrastructure which attracted large amounts of foreign direct investment leading to a virtuous cycle of growth and investment over a 25 year period. India did not pay enough attention to its agricultural sector which means it has not significantly improved the lives of half its working population.
So, India in 2025 will be the sixth- or seventh-largest economy in the world, but not rich enough to make a material difference to some 300 million people who will still be living on less than $3 to $4 a day by then.
Lakshman Krishnamurthi/Sugandha Khandelwal
(Lakshman Krishnamurthi is professor of marketing at the Kellogg School at Northwestern University; Sugandha Khandelwal is a former research associate at the Kellogg School.)
Now consider this: The number of people in the working-age population aged 15 to 64 is expected to increase from 781 million in 2010 to 916 million in 2020 to a staggering 1.02 billion in 2030.
And this: Half the population of India was younger than 25 in 2010. That will only change to half the population being under 28 in 2030.
So, India will remain a very young country for the next 20 years. These favorable demographic statistics in India point to the potential of a large 'demographic dividend' where the enormous size of the young, working population could turbo-charge the prosperity of the country.
China in just 15 years, between 1995 and 2010, leveraged its 'demographic dividend' to build the world's second-largest economy after the U.S. and will overtake the U.S. within the next 20 years. Chinese nominal per capita gross domestic product in dollars increased seven-fold between 1995 and 2010!
Can India ride the same winds? We don't mean overtaking China or the U.S. That simply will not happen. But can India leverage its demographic dividend into a substantial economic payoff which will significantly change the lives of hundreds of millions of the poor?
There will be a payoff but it will not be as large as China's. The best India can hope for is that nominal per capita GDP in dollars will increase by a factor of 3.5 to 4 between 2010 and 2025, about half what China achieved between 1995 and 2010. Even though India is a young country, the age dependency ratio still favors China over India till 2025. (The ratio is the proportion of people too young or too old to work to the number of working-age adults.)
Both countries have momentum but China's structural factors are far superior to India's so India will not get the same leverage.
India's sector GDP is split 17%, 28%, and 55% in agriculture, services, and industry, respectively. The employed workforce split 52%, 14%, 34%, respectively. The disproportionate services GDP contribution is an anomaly in a poorer country like India. The vast majority of service employment in India is in low-level and low-paying industries. The contribution of higher-level industries to the services GDP is driven by the information technology and software sectors which do not employ large numbers of people.
Equally worrisome is the low percentage of employment in industry, which should be the GDP driver of a poorer country like India. Industrial employment in factories is more directly connected to real productivity growth than agricultural or low-level service employment.
There is some talk that India should focus on the 'knowledge economy' instead of the 'manufacturing economy' given that the country is badly trailing China in manufacturing. We believe this is wishful thinking.
India needs hundreds of millions of productive, decent-wage jobs which can only be provided by industrial employment. Even if production of such goods is not of exportable quality, it will still provide gainful employment. The 'knowledge economy,' which will employ far fewer people, can serve as the export engine.
The agricultural sector, which employs over 50% of the workforce, is extremely inefficient. Agricultural inefficiency is a combination of small farms, poor land management, dependence on the vagaries of water supply whether it be rains or ground water, a poor supply chain that wastes food and provides low remuneration to farmers, and in some cases low prices paid by the government, which reduces the incentive to produce crops.
Overall, only around 60% of the population available to work is working, which compares poorly to China's number of 85%.
The vast majority of employment is in enterprises with fewer than 10 employees, and in the informal sector, which is a major cause for the low productivity. The data reflect that India's workforce is only half as productive as China's in all three sectors (agriculture, industry, and services).
The combination of fewer people working and not working efficiently is a double whammy.
Even with favorable job creation of 13 to 14 million new jobs annually over the next 15 years, there will not be enough productive jobs available to absorb the increasing work force with the proportion employed rising to only 70% in 2025.
Indian education is in a dismal state with only about one out of eight children who start first grade graduating from 12 grade. According to World Bank data, India's literacy rate for ages 15 and above places it in the last quartile of 114 countries. Even though the country produces 2.5 million to 3 million college graduates a year, a national survey notes that among persons aged 15 to 29, only 2% have received formal vocational training and just 8% non-formal vocational training.
Industry estimates also note that only 25% of the engineering graduates are qualified to work for a multinational company, leading many companies to invest in retraining graduates.
Energy is the prime driver of economic growth. To deliver the GDP growth forecast over the next 20 years would require a quadrupling of energy capacity, according to the Indian government. The energy required to fuel infrastructure growth is daunting and is unlikely to be met and would require massive importation of coal and oil. That will raise input costs, leading to significant balance of trade deficits, and crimp GDP growth.
Already, the Indian government runs a budget deficit and has to borrow from the capital markets to meet its obligations. The government has announced infrastructure investments of $500 billion in the 11 five-year plan that runs to 2012 and $1 trillion in the next. These enormous investments are unlikely to be realized because a significant amount has to come from the private sector. Uncertain returns, corruption and bureaucratic meddling will negatively impact private-sector participation.
What does India need to do? A sustained and massive investment in education, an increase from the current 3.8% of GDP to 5%, is necessary to improve both basic literacy and skills though given the budget deficits at the national and state levels, it is not clear how this can be done. Vocational education is imperative to move unproductive farm workers to productive industrial workers. The country needs tens of thousands of qualified trades-people like electricians, carpenters, plumbers, bricklayers, masonry workers, HVAC contractors, IT and security contractors, and so on for all the infrastructure that is expected to be built.
India has the second-largest amount of arable land after the U.S. Land reforms are urgently needed, farm sizes must get bigger allowing mechanization to improve productivity, and prices must be rationalized to incentivize production. Food inflation in India is high which hurts the poor the most. The burgeoning population will exacerbate food shortages, with the potential for massive social unrest derailing growth.
Democratic India has more rigid labor policies and a weaker investment climate than communist China, a big reason for productivity across the board being less than half of China's. Flexible labor laws are needed to improve the investment climate and increase worker productivity.
China made the right bet in improving its agricultural base first before sustained improvement in infrastructure which attracted large amounts of foreign direct investment leading to a virtuous cycle of growth and investment over a 25 year period. India did not pay enough attention to its agricultural sector which means it has not significantly improved the lives of half its working population.
So, India in 2025 will be the sixth- or seventh-largest economy in the world, but not rich enough to make a material difference to some 300 million people who will still be living on less than $3 to $4 a day by then.
Lakshman Krishnamurthi/Sugandha Khandelwal
(Lakshman Krishnamurthi is professor of marketing at the Kellogg School at Northwestern University; Sugandha Khandelwal is a former research associate at the Kellogg School.)
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