邱吉尔(Churchill)曾经有一句名言：俄罗斯政治就像是看着两条狗在地毯下打架。然而，近来俄罗斯最高层的政客们却掀开了“毯子”，公开咬住了对方的痛处。
首先，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)将西方在利比亚的军事行动比作中世纪的十字军东征，随后，俄罗斯总统德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)要求普京管住自己的嘴巴（意思大致如此）。
接着，梅德韦杰夫勒令部长们辞去国有控股公司的董事会职位。这对“克林姆林公司”（Kremlin Inc，普京创建的一种利益相互交织的政治和经济体系）构成了致命打击。普京的忠实追随者们大多也受到了冲击，包括俄罗斯副总理伊戈尔•谢欣(Igor Sechin)，他与普京有着长达20年的亲密盟友关系，也是其担任董事长的俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)和英国石油(BP)合并计划的关键人物。
在克林姆林宫的深宅之中，总统选举角逐的发令枪显然已经打响——目前距离选举不到一年时间。预计普京将决定谁将成为总统候选人，而且无论担任何种职位，他仍将是俄罗斯权柄最大的人物。而不那么清楚的是：这场政治混战究竟目的何在？
它或许是试图激发那些厌倦了政治受到严格控制的俄罗斯人的兴趣：俄罗斯不太可能爆发中东式的动荡。但一种普遍存在的幻灭感正加剧商业及政治精英们对于即将到来的大选的担忧。尽管俄罗斯经济有所增长，但上述感觉遏制了国内投资，并造成今年第一季度210亿美元资金逃离。
这场政治混战或许是试图阻止二人中的任何一人变成“跛脚鸭”，梅德韦杰夫的自信可能是一种保住地位的理由，或许可能是又一种声东击西的做法。2007年，在上次大选之前，克林姆林宫曾花费大量时间将保守派谢尔盖•伊万诺夫(Sergei Ivanov)树立为总统法定继承人——直到普京最终选择了梅德韦杰夫。
任何一方都不希望对方超过自己。梅德韦杰夫将自己定位为“现代化”候选人，呼吁俄罗斯发展高科技行业，减轻对石油的依赖。自由主义智库当代发展研究所(Institute of Contemporary Development)敦促彻底改革，其中包括施行更多的民主。梅德韦杰夫担任该智库的董事长。
普京组建了自己的自由派经济学家班子，包括与俄罗斯后苏联时代的改革者叶戈尔•盖达尔(Yegor Gaidar)和阿纳托利•丘拜斯(Anatoly Chubais)共事的学者弗拉基米尔•马乌(Vladimir Mau)。他们的结论与提交给梅德韦杰夫的类似，其中不包括民主改革——参与者表示自己受命回避这一领域。
然而，俄罗斯当局的担忧是，选民似乎已感到厌倦。俄罗斯媒体报道称，年轻专业人士正忙着移民国外，逃避那种未来数年由同一批人掌权的前景。
民调显示，两人的支持率已降至几年来的最低水平（不过以西方标准衡量，他们的支持率仍然很高）。亲政府的主要党派统一俄罗斯党(United Russia)在上月的地区选举中表现相对较差。
民调分析人士称，支持率正在下降，尤其是俄罗斯日益壮大的城市中产阶级的支持率——这部分选民可能占选民总数的15%。读博客、拥有房产的俄罗斯人最终正要求一个对自身诉求做出回应的体系。
最初由普京首任经济部长戈尔曼•格雷夫(German Gref)创建的一家智库，上周对一场即将爆发的危机发出警告，因为很多俄罗斯人认为，当前领导层正“迅速非法化”(delegitimisation)。唯一的解决办法是为该体系引入更多的竞争和新面孔。
克林姆林宫以独特的方式做出了反应，它不严肃地将一个上世纪90年代时期的政党变成了一个“温顺”的自由主义政党，这样就可以在12月的大选中进入僵化的议会并捍卫中产阶级利益。据报道，有关方面已与包括俄罗斯第一副总理伊戈尔•舒瓦洛夫(Igor Shuvalov)在内的自由主义倾向的高级官员，就担任该党领导人事宜进行商讨。
在克林姆林宫批准的政治体系之外，支持民主的边缘政治人士表示，精明的新兴中产阶级永远不会上另一个“虚假”政党的当。他们正把目标对准自己这部分选民，希望培养对变革的兴趣。
一位领先学者与各级俄罗斯人意见一致，他认为，猖獗的腐败如今到了“窃国政治”(kleptocracy)的程度，这是一个中心议题。但他表示，在五、六年内，“变革必须出现。如果不时从顶层开始，就会从底层爆发。”
译者/梁艳裳
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001037972
Russian politics, Churchill famously said, is like watching two dogs fighting under a carpet. Lately, however, Russia’s top political dogs have shed the rug and are openly nipping at each other’s heels.
First, Vladimir Putin, prime minister, likened western military action in Libya to medieval crusades, before Dmitry Medvedev, president, told him, in essence, to hold his tongue.
Then, last week, Mr Medvedev ordered ministers to leave the boards of state-controlled companies. That struck at the heart of “Kremlin Inc” – the intertwined political and economic system Mr Putin created. Putin loyalists were also largely affected, including Igor Sechin, a close ally for two decades and linchpin of a planned alliance between Rosneft, the oil company Mr Sechin chairs, and Britain’s BP.
Deep in the corridors of the Kremlin, it is clear the starting gun has been fired for presidential elections just under a year from now. Less clear, with Mr Putin expected to decide which man will be the presidential candidate – and to remain Russia’s most powerful figure whatever position he holds – is what the dogfights are really about.
They may be an attempt to stimulate interest among Russians who are wearying of tightly controlled politics: Russians are unlikely to erupt into Middle East-style unrest. But a sense of popular disillusionment is adding to nervousness in business and political elites over the looming election, which is stifling domestic investm-ent and which contributed to $21bn of capital flight in the first quarter of 2011, despite a buoyant economy.
The jostling may be an attempt to prevent either figure becoming a lame duck, Mr Medvedev’s assertiveness could be a pitch to keep his job, or it could be another feint. The Kremlin spent much of 2007, before the last elections, building up the conservative Sergei Ivanov as presidential heir apparent – until Mr Putin chose Mr Medvedev.
Neither side wants to be outdone. Mr Medvedev has positioned himself as the “modernisation” candidate, calling for Russia to develop high-tech industries to reduce reliance on oil. A liberal think-tank, the Institute for Contemporary Development, whose board Mr Medvedev heads, has urged radical reforms, including more democracy.
Mr Putin has formed his own taskforce of free-thinking economists, including Vladimir Mau, an academic who worked with Russia’s post-Soviet reformers Yegor Gaidar and Anatoly Chubais. Their conclusions resemble those presented to the president, minus democratic reforms, an area people involved say they were told to avoid.
Yet the worry for the powers that be is that voters seem jaded. Russian media have reported young professionals emigrating, fleeing the prospect of the same figures in power for years to come.
Opinion polls show support for both men, still high by western standards, has fallen to its lowest for several years. The dominant pro-Kremlin United Russia party performed comparatively poorly in regional elections last month.
Pollsters suggest support is waning, above all, among Russia’s growing urban middle class, perhaps 15 per cent of the electorate. Blog-reading, property-owning Russians are finally demanding a system responsive to their own aspirations.
A think-tank originally set up by German Gref, Mr Putin’s first economy minister, warned last week of a looming crisis due to “fast-growing delegitimisa-tion” of today’s leadership among many Russians. The only solution was to introduce more competition and new faces into the system.
The Kremlin has reacted in typical fashion, by toying with turning the shell of a 1990s-era party into a “tame” liberal party that could enter the ossified parliament in elections in December and champion middle-class interests. Talks have reportedly been held with liberal-leaning senior officials including Igor Shuvalov, a deputy prime minister, about leading the party.
Fringe pro-democracy politicians, outside the Kremlin-approved political system, suggest this savvy new middle class would never fall for another “fake” party. They are targeting this electorate themselves, hoping to nurture its appetite for change.
One leading intellectual, echoing Russians at all levels, agrees that rampant corruption, now at the level of a “kleptocracy”, is a central issue. But within five or six years, he says, “change must come. If it doesn’t come from the top, it will come from below.”
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