要衡量全球大规模的财富转移，几乎再没有比美国赌场运营商永利酒店(Wynn Resorts)公布的每间可供出租客房收入(revpar)更好的指标了。2008年第一季度，永利酒店在拉斯维加斯的revpar为285美元，澳门为244美元。今年第一季度，这些数字分别为211美元和272美元，澳门胜出。
实际上，前葡萄牙殖民地澳门是中国唯一可以合法开赌场的地方，很难看出有什么会扰乱它的增长轨迹。内地游客的签证限制以及新加坡新赌场的开业，已经尽可能地对澳门构成了伤害。今年3月，澳门博彩总收入达到25亿美元，比3年前高出两倍以上。2009年10月在香港上市的澳门永利酒店上周公布一季度利润增长66%，股价升至新高。上市首日，澳门永利与总部位于美国内华达州的母公司Paradise的市账率之差约为10个百分点，如今已扩大到27个百分点。
流动性收紧似乎不大可能抑制需求。正如瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)所指出的，尽管中国抑制了信贷增长，但赌场的转码数（VIP赌客的投注总额）仍在继续上升。对内地游客的更多限制可能也不会影响需求，因为交通联络的改善会抵消其影响：例如，新建的广州至珠海的轻轨将旅行时间缩短了一半还多。对于赌场而言，最大的风险在于过分热心的扩张。不过如果出现这种情形，投资者最好是在板块内部进行轮动――买入估值低于平均水平、但增长高于平均水平的运营商――而不是彻底退出。是的，这是一个人潮拥挤的行业：澳门永利今年的表现较基准指数高出55个百分点。但有时，智慧就在群众中间。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/梁艳裳
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001038287
There are few more elegant indicators of the great global wealth transfer than the revenue-per-available-room rates reported by the US casino operator, Wynn Resorts. In the first quarter of 2008, Wynn's revpar was $285 in Las Vegas and $244 in Macau. In the first quarter of this year, the figures were $211 to $272 in Macau's favour.
It is difficult, indeed, to see what might upset the growth trajectory of this former Portuguese colony, the only place in China where casinos are legal. Restrictions on visas for mainland visitors and the opening of new casinos in Singapore have done much to hurt it. Gross gaming receipts of $2.5bn in March were more than three times that of three years earlier. Wynn Macau, floated in Hong Kong in October 2009, soared to a high this week as it reported first-quarter profit up 66 per cent. Its price/book spread with its Paradise, Nevada-based parent, about 10 percentage points on debut, is now pushing 27.
Tightened liquidity seems unlikely to curb demand. As Credit Suisse points out, junkets' rolling-chip turnover � the aggregate bets placed by VIP gamblers � has continued to rise, even as China has restrained credit growth. Further restrictions on mainland visitors may not do it either, given the offsetting effect of improved travel links: a new
light-rail line between Guangzhou and nearby Zhuhai, for example, has cut journey times by more than half. For casinos, the big risk is overzealous expansion. Yet in that event, investors would be better advised to rotate within the sector � buy the operator trading at below-average valuations but experiencing above-average growth � than exit altogether. Yes, this is a very crowded trade: Wynn Macau's performance this year is 55 percentage points better than the benchmark. But sometimes there is wisdom in crowds
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